Sinking China will drag you all for themselves?

According to the forecasts of many economic analysts, the subsequent global money crisis begins its movement on the planet with China. In favor of this speculation is the fact that the open country, which liberalized the monetary sphere and intensively involved in the global integration simply can not be isolated and on the crisis in the global economy, and once without a crisis, the subsequent times can be fully its source. This justify the examples from the USA of the 1930s, the Land of the Rising Sun and Sweden the early 90's, Mexico and South Korea of the second half and most of the euro area at the current time.

Sinking China will drag you all for themselves?

Of course, that because of the global disposition of the modern economy from another financial crisis is not insured by any one country. Whether it will avoid China, already smogshy maintain financial and economic stability during the last crisis, and even stretched out on his own mighty shoulders of the economies of the rest of the world?

Despite its apparent uniqueness and otherness, China and its economic problems is exactly the same world-wide. China — it is not another planetka, even despite the originality of its economic system. In China, as in almost all other developing countries, strong position of oligarchs in the country took shape quite a class of super-rich people who have strong ties to the party and monetary environment, the line between which, by the way, actually erased. So Makarov, in modern China appears a situation similar to that which took place in 2008 in the United States, as the world struck an unprecedented cash crisis, prompting speculation control of Wall Street and Washington politicians.

But, in fairness, it must be emphasized that the main threat to the Chinese economy is beyond it. While domestic bad economic political and social causes, of course, strong in the current situation, they still are not decisive. In the case of China and the likely emergence of the latest wave of crisis, of particular importance to obtain a particular foreign economic reasons. China is seriously dependent on the international economic environment, it may be, basically, than anyone else in the world. In the conditions of the 2008 crisis, China is not without effort, but was able to stay afloat, to show the world its own model of economic stability and the ability to use the misfortune of others for their own benefit. At this time, the situation looks a little different.

According to the views of the majority of professionals, a significant slowdown in the economies of Russia and the U.S., which would mean, respectively, slowing their use, with a very high probability of a little bit of lead to a significant slowdown in the Chinese economy. As you know, this particular phenomenon feared by all economists of the planet, since his appearance will inevitably start a chain reaction of a new round of global crisis.

In the event of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, Europe will lose its own brain trading partner. If China, which is the main holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, once in a quandary throw so called Treasuries on the market (Treasuries — South American debt, in fact, it is common pieces of paper on which the South American government wrote: "We have to have money"), then in the United States this will cause undeniable and immediate monetary collapse with all the attendant. But from such a development will suffer not only the main bubble of the planet, and the emerging markets, including Russian. All the fault would be a serious drop in Chinese demand for our raw materials, priemuschestvenno on energoelementy, and it just can not knock on our nearly come to their senses after the crisis, almost four years ago, raw material economy. So Makar, the crisis in China with certainty can easily be transformed into crisis the global economy, compared with which the current debt crisis in Europe may seem like just an easy walk to the actual marathon. By the way, the views of many professionals, even the most errant another aggravation of the euro debt crisis — and to ensure that it does not, at this point no one can — can reduce economic growth in China twice to level at 4-4, 5%, which will definitely point to start very soon latest majestically depression.

It should be noted that the Chinese economy has already provided a good reason for concern. At the end of the last months of the past year decline in industrial production in China has already begun, which confirms the fear expressed by professionals and can mean the approach of the Chinese crisis, and right behind it, and the global economy.

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