Terror — the means — the terror

Terror - money - Terror

July 14, in the skies over Afghanistan could create a historic and symbolic picture immediately: paunchy "Boeing" with the first batch of evacuees American fighter gained altitude and low-altitude chatter helicopters patrolling the area. The effect of the "iron dragonfly" and this day was small. Terrorists blew up a mosque, which was held at a memorial ceremony for slain brother of President Karzai. Chairman of the Board of the clergy were killed in Kandahar Hekmatula Hekmat and other principal face.

Thus marked the beginning of the Taliban from Afghanistan, leaving the Yankees. And to fix a memory, a day or two, they destroyed the coming presidential adviser, the former governor of Oruzgan province — Jan Mohammad Khan. There's not a day or, that the Taliban have not declared themselves for another terrorist attack. And all this — at the highest security measures taken by the coalition and Afghan special services.

Taliban uses Afghan military structures unwillingness to deal with terrorist threats and terror trying to demoralize the highest levels of government. They say that tears at the funeral of President Karzai's half-brother, was a sign that the soul of his despair reigns. After all the tears for Pashtun — something almost unimaginable. But his position is really threatening. Americans leave it to the army, which can not be relied upon.

Television Agency broadcast a report about the "GI" fun gruzyaschihsya in the aircraft, as the country goes a memorial service for the dead terrorist policies. However, to save face the Americans staged a comic handover ceremony of Afghan military capabilities to ensure the security of the country. Hard to say who is more liked this ceremony — the Afghan army or the Taliban. In any case, in Mazar-e-Sharif, one of the more benign 7 cities where the ceremony took place, the Taliban immediately organized the terrorist act. The bomber blew with a life of 4 people. Fifteen injured.

In describing its purpose as "done", the South American strategists palter. It is clear that the U.S. administration can not openly admit the failure of the Afghan adventure. Because refrain mission accomplished (Mission executed) will accompany the whole process of the flight of Western troops from Afghanistan. And behind the scenes of this great scene felt another, invisible world game, more similar to the conspiracy lurking sworn enemies.

Such suspicions appear when trying to get information about the real balance of forces between the Afghan national army and the Taliban. The findings of the acquired data so unexpected, that the entire record set of arguments in Washington about "assuming the mission" begins to seem childish.

South American military experts at can not justify imposing that the army and security forces of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (Irina) are ready to do battle with the Taliban. Are independent observers have noted that the samples do Irina Americanized army were doomed from the start. Afghanistan has historically had a standing army, and even while resisting external aggressors Afghans have always advocated the union of tribal groups. For many centuries this power to substantiate its effectiveness.

Samples of the coalition to make regular Afghan army are stupid, because this model is alien psychology of the people. After the formation of strong tribal first in that they are relatives and co-religionists. And in a standing army, though formed with the ethnic composition of the population — half Pashtun, 40 percent Tajiks, Uzbeks 7 percent and 3 percent other — instead of classical spikes try to inculcate the values of "democratic order and progress." The main objective of such training — to give former militants latest motivation. In other words, the "snake turned into a hedgehog." A special emphasis is placed on testing of subordination civilian authorities and the military command of NATO, while ordinary Afghans have not learned how to build in NATO, "the dawn of humanity." In the end, it comes down to that in the first months of service recruits are not issued uniforms, because many of them received a soldier's clothes, here are deserting.

Rather weak second place — a contractual nature of the army. Many of the poor go into it in order to earn a piece of bread. But the Afghan government can not do without the help of others contain 80 thousand troops, even if wages from 50 to 200 bucks a month. In addition, cuts in U.S. aid to Kabul has already promised. And most importantly — contractors has never been the highest morale. Contractor only bad feeling safe — driving ultramodern fighter, bombing civilians facilities for a staff computer, about 200 km from the fighting, etc. And in fierce armed clashes its highest dream of greenish money quickly disappears and gives way to horror. Besides Afghan South American contractor weaker, because on the other side against him beating his brothers in the faith, fanatically convinced of the rightness of its own affairs. Such a contractor can not, like the South American mercenaries, to create in people only target.

To all other Afghan soldiers constantly exposed religious and political process with the Taliban. Extensively vserasprostranenny look to Westerners as enemies of Islam is playing with all this great role. A new generation of Afghans who have refused to Allah for Pepsi, has not yet appeared. Speaking at an international conference in Paris, the last commander of the coalition forces, Gen. David Petraeus, now director of the CIA, says the situation in Afghanistan as precarious and able to return to the starting point. With it's hard not to agree, if, in a recognition of the Yankees, of 160 Afghan battalions, only one (!) Can be considered foolproof. Others depend on the support of the American and South American command. By special programmke Yankees failed for 10 years to return to civilian life in 2300 fighters, and the total number of militants seeking 35 thousand. Success is more than reasonable, especially when you consider that the U.S. izderzhali to the war in Afghanistan and Iraq 1.3 trillion dollars.

Americans are well aware that the state army Irina is a phantom that will dissipate in the event of the first detachments of the Taliban. So what does happen in fact? After all, someone from American politicians have to answer if they built a house of cards "fulfillment of the mission" suddenly fall apart?
Maybe the answer lies in the messages that the Americans are intense talks with the Taliban brokered by German diplomats. Even without knowing the substance of negotiations, we can confidently present that deals with the rules of the game for the period after the war.

They want the United States against the Taliban?

— The Taliban do not have to throw the bloody execution of the pro-American policies and establish a totalitarian regime;

— Taliban do not have to give Al-Qaeda a free hand in the country;

— they have to go the way of forming a government of national unity;

— they should not destabilize Pakistan.

What the Taliban want from the U.S.?

— They want complete withdrawal of the Yankees and non-interference in their forthcoming life of Afghanistan;

— they want assurances from the review of recent decisions of the U.S. administration regarding Irina;

— and foremost, they want compensation of the real harm that caused the coalition in Afghanistan for 10 years of the intervention.

Means — it is the axis around
which the wheel is spinning negotiations. For a decent fee, especially if the funds will go ahead, we can not promise to prevent a catastrophe and unwavering voice to say that mission accomplished.

Of course, if the Taliban did not okolpachat.

Do Americans believe the Taliban? Naturally, they do not believe, but where to go. The negotiations with the Taliban — this is the kind of haircut, which is called the "black sheep even with a tuft of wool." In addition, for cheating the Taliban could get a premium cruise missiles. So that the negotiations are meaningful.

In particular, the Yankees are concerned that after the return of the Taliban-Al Qaeda again acquire for themselves a safe haven and support base in Afghanistan.

Statements by the Pentagon that al-Qaeda "virtually destroyed", can not be taken seriously. This organization has gone to the Pakistani part of Balochistan and only during lowered its activities in Afghanistan. Samples wage war against al-Qaeda in the region with drones nothing, except the death of a civilian population and the problems with Pakistan, has brought. The leaders of Al-Qaeda apparently waiting when complete withdrawal of foreign troops from the Afghan countryside. Time is on them. In the meantime, they turned their attention to Yemen and achieve success there, which in the Obama administration chose to remain silent … The militants running al-Qaeda captured vast areas in the south of Yemen around the port of Aden.

"The strength of al-Qaeda grows, we lose her war," — says a prominent Yemeni expert on terrorism Mohammed Saif Haidar. — In the middle of Yemeni followers of Sharia, who wish to build in the south of the country own Caliphate, Al-Qaeda members are hard core. They have already set their own rules in the occupied areas, introduce the death penalty for marital unfaithfulness, and cutting off hands for theft. They caught municipal officials and police patrolled the streets and burned secular books. One village has already taken the first penalty homosexual. "

Al-Qaeda is preparing to take Aden — a strategic port in the region. Its governor was running, the government of resisting the last effort. All leading to the town of infrastructure supply cut.

After the capture of the town of terrorists take control of the coast of the Gulf of Aden. It's inaccessible terrain with an abundance of rock formations, comfortable for guerrilla war against the permanent troops. On the Somali side of the bay is governor terrorist organization Al-Shahab, made at the time bin Laden. As a result, "soldiers of Allah" can be a 2-party to take control of one of the most important naval arteries of the world — the Gulf of Aden in conjunction with the neck of Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow width at the location just 26 km away. Through the Strait of an endless string passes a huge number of tankers and container ships from Europe to Asia and back.

How then will the situation evolve? For the "bottleneck" simply plug the abundance of methods. Starting from shelling or mining, finishing flooding the courts. If terrorists are closed on the neck of the Bab el-Mandeb, is unparalleled dramatically change the geopolitical situation in the world. Never before has a terrorist organization does not constitute a proper control is so sensitive geopolitical point. You can not waver, that in such a case, the "crusade against terrorism" will be inevitable.

Is this why the Obama administration has so far "not notice" the threat? It creates the impression that she is waiting until the abscess is ripe to start removing it with the most noise and a very huge application of funds — again, in the same frame of secret negotiations in which zavertyatsya astronomical amounts of dollars that go into the mysterious ways.

And the most fascinating — it is clear in advance, will move to Al-Qaeda under the pressure of "crusaders". And it seems that the game of "terror — the means — Terror" will be endless …

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