Terrorism comes in Minsk

The British magazine The Economist offers his analysis of the circumstances, causes and possible consequences of a terrorist attack in Minsk on April 11.

The human cost in sight, although the reason is unclear.

Political violence in Belarus — it's rare but not unknown. Ten years ago, four people were missing. They are believed to have been killed by the authorities. Since then, opposition demonstrations regularly zdushvalisya rough, but the worst that happens is a broken bone, but not dead. As a result of the mysterious explosion in 2008, tens of people were wounded. No one has claimed responsibility.

In other countries, the finger of suspicion in such cases, immediately falls to the Islamists. But here, their attitude is unlikely. Belarus stayed out of the war in Chechnya, Russia, therefore does not cause anger zhygadystav. It has a large number of Muslim population. In addition, terrorists from the North Caucasus, as a rule, the suicide bombers.

This does not correspond to the nature of the Belarusian opposition …

It is hard to imagine that it can stand for the opposition. This is not a destabilizing regime and represents a huge risk for criminals. And it is not consistent with the nature of the Belarusian opposition. Belarusian opposition have many disadvantages: they are too fond speak at conferences in the West, they are too inactive, when it comes to political campaigns at home. But the worst which can be say about them — is that they have a marginal, but not the murderous character.

A more likely candidate is an extremist movement. Belarus has no real tradition of political radicalism. In Russia there is even the neo-Nazis and skinheads. Such groups have minor branches in Belarus. Perhaps one of them decided to show their abilities.

Splits within the regime — is also possible version …

Splits within the regime — it is also possible version. The arrest in December 2010, the head of the air force Igor Azarenka remains a mystery, and perhaps angered his friends. Some analysts point to the existence of competitive factions of young and old "wolves" (friends prezydentavaga son Viktor Lukashenko, on the one hand, and the old KGB personnel, on the other).

Another analysis suggests that the attack organized faction in the government, which wants to encourage Belarus to more tightening of the screws and remove from the West.

These secret internal machinations, of course, can be explained almost everything. But it would be nice to have some proof. And with them is difficult. After the explosion, 2008 he was dismissed an influential security coordinator Victor Sheiman. But there is a view that Lukashenko would fire Shejman anyway. And it seems strange hypothesis that the government will throw bombs to justify the reshuffle.

Now suggests that the explosion had to take public attention from the country's economic problems.

Power and without it cracking down on the opposition, and it is unclear what additional base is a blast …

The opposition beware that the explosion will be used as the basis for its suppression. And it is possible in principle. Explosion in 2008 became the occasion for a campaign of mass fingerprinting. But the authorities without it cracking down on the opposition, and it is unclear what additional reason is the explosion. In 1999 apartment bombings in Moscow and other Russian cities have created a panic, the consequence of which — accidentally or not — is that the new Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has suddenly become the most popular politician in the country. But Mr. Lukashenko is popular.

The result is a maze of mirrors. Or didand the government to discredit the opposition? Or opposition did so in the hope that the blame will be placed on the government? Or is it the Russians, universal villains for some conspiracy theorists? Or regime has done is to highlight the threat of "extremists" and to place the blame on foreigners? Is NATO: in the end, if the West is bombing Libya, why not Belarus? The explanations are becoming more absurd and unconvincing.

The fact that the explosion was carried out professionally. Lukashenko linked the explosion on April 11 with the explosion in 2008, saying: "This is probably the links of one chain." He asked who could benefit from undermining stability, and added: "I do not rule out that it was a gift from abroad."

Politics in Belarus has always been opaque. Now shed innocent blood makes it a dark and sinister.

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