Yesterday's offensive statements of Alexander Lukashenko to the leadership of the European Commission and Ukraine, we were asked to comment on the director of the research program of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs Arcadia Moshasa.
Moshas: I think that first of all it shows the extreme nervoznastsi Alexander Lukashenko. After all, although in principle this kind of rhetoric is inherent to it, including the administration of Russia, but here it is in their emotional self-expression goes beyond the bounds. This shows his awareness of the complexity of the situation. As far as this can be present calculation — it's hard to say. Insult in modern politics is rarely helpful.
Still it is possible to understand why Lukashenko allows himself to harsh rhetoric against Ukraine — it seems that in this way he can influence the position of Ukraine and Russia, which is now beginning to be friends again with Ukraine, while from the point of view of Lukashenko Russia would be better to be friends with Belarus and give her the money.
But it can positively change the position of the EU — I understand not given.
Drakakhrust: A few days ago Lukashenko, speaking with a message to the people and the National Assembly, rather apologetically spoke about the future of relations with the EU, they say, we're still going to put up, we need each other. And then a few days later — so sharp rhetoric. Why?
Moshas: What Lukashenko said in his message, somehow sounded all the time after December 19. The line was conciliatory, it was stressed that we pause, but not in any way strategic gap. This line is the only correct strategy. To be alone with Russia for Lukashenka means political death, he needs to maneuver, he can not understand. But he could not keep his emotions under control, people last week is under heavy political and psychological pressure: the panic in the market of products, the panic in the currency market, the explosion.
And most importantly — the lack of perspective, lack of understanding of how to hold on and endure. It is understood that no credit of Russia in the next few days for just will not come, and even if it comes, it will not save anyone. It can break anyone.
It seems that there is a PR opportunity to speak on equal terms in the triangle with Russia and Ukraine, and here she is broke. I believe that this is due to such things.
Drakakhrust: And as far as a personal insult — a factor making for EU leaders as guided by the principle — "for a goat answer?" Can you imagine that in a year or two is called "goat" Barroso will shake hands with a smile Lukashenko?
Moshas: European politicians are able to control their emotions. Even residents of the southern countries. They have to take part in all sorts of controversies, and whatever the personal relationships, they are able to draw the line between personal reactions and the interests of business. I assume that the position will not be affected, is unlikely to intensify the desire to take revenge and put the squeeze. But, of course, it can not contribute to the exchange of friendship after a hard sharpness. Such a style is inherent in politicians from other parts of the world.
About whether it is possible to imagine a situation that after a while Barroso shakes hands with a smile Lukashenko, then with a smile — not as shaking hands — of course.
European officials have to deal with these autocrats, compared to which any member of the ruling elite of post-Soviet space is as a liberal and a democrat. If I'm not mistaken, the EU had a representative office in Burma, long before it appeared in Minsk. These people, because of the skills, know how to shake hands and pretend that all grievances forgotten.
So I think that overcoming the conflict between the EU and Belarus can happen very quickly. If the political prisoners are released and the processes are stopped, then for a few months, you may return the situation to the state before December 19. It will start at a lower level, but with the passage of time can go up to any level.