Danger to the United States in the estimates of U.S. intelligence

Threats to the United States in the estimates of U.S. intelligenceJanuary 31 Director of the Company on State James Klepper U.S. intelligence presented to the public report, devoted to the prediction of future threats to U.S. security.

U.S. National Intelligence Society — is not one organization, and specific structure with horizontal and vertical connections, except where the CIA, FBI and National Security Agency consists of the Intelligence Bureau and the municipal research department, the Office for Combating Terrorism and Financial Intelligence of money, the Administration Narcotics, the Pentagon controls about 10 (from the army to the military space and geospatial intelligence) services from other departments and agencies are independent.

Report James Klepper curious fact that, apart from the obvious threat, it was a place to States that do not accept the unilateral U.S. hegemony in the world, such as our homeland, China, and Iran, which shows the obvious political implications of the report. If before the anger in Iraq, regardless of the specific position neoconservatives truthfully report to the intelligence community to President Bush that Saddam Hussein is no chemical weapons, there is a tendency creation of a specific pattern, according to which the United States there are new enemies.

The report contains 30 pages and is divided into seven sections, unequal in terms of volume. First on the agenda of the day or including terrorism. Indicated that in the coming two to three years, the threat of terrorism enters a critical phase of transition from structures such as "Al-Qaeda", a more decentralized movements, which would be able to withstand only the exact role of the counter-terrorism strategy with partners. Yet terrorist groups and forces sympathetic to the global jihad movement, will have access to funding, weapons, explosives, safe shelter, and recruit new members. Such a disappointing conclusion leads to the conclusion that even the most successful U.S. counter-terrorism operations will not bring peace.

Then comes the problem of the proliferation of nuclear weapons. In Washington on this issue, there are two traditional outcast — Iran and North Korea.

Third section is devoted to cybersecurity. In addition to guidance on the growth of the vulnerability of communications networks and databases, and are certain countries that represent, in the views of professionals and American intelligence officers, a danger to the United States. This — China and our homeland, which cause "particular concern." There is a link to released in October 2011 on espionage, in what is indicated that these states are constant penetration into the South American computer networks, aimed at stealing intellectual affiliation. However, in this description of "evil" emanating from the designated countries is limited.

But in the fourth chapter on espionage, Russian-Chinese saga continues. With all of this duo expanded to a trio through Iran. All three countries are attributed to the brutal and successful acts in economic espionage against the United States. And Iran is generally considerably in recent years become skilled in this matter and, as indicated, "striking increment kibervozmozhnosti their depth and complexity."

Section of the massacres is half a page and actually limited to the regions — this is the Sudanese region of Darfur, eastern Congo, Nigeria, Libya, and Syria. Inclusion in this list is biased through Syria: in adjoining Iraq killed more people, but it's not mentioned.

The largest in terms of volume is the section dedicated to global change. But laying more focus on the internal dilemmas of countries and their relations with their neighbors. In Afghanistan will continue the "pacification" Taliban. Despite the fact that there is a record number of drugs for the global market, the future situation filed the vaguest way — the report only contains the interdependence of security in certain areas, with access to the markets of legitimate agricultural products. Taking into account that suffer from drug trafficking in Central Asia and our homeland, such evasiveness can come to the conclusion that lack of interest in the U.S. anti-narcotic evil.

In Pakistan and India, the situation does not change. China is concerned about the stability of their own regions, and the modernization of the army. In the long-running dispute over Taiwan advantage will shift toward China. The "Arab Spring", according to the report, most of all influenced by Egypt, Libya, Syria and Tunisia. The situation in Bahrain, where during the crackdown did not once have killed civilians, in general, are not covered. The findings dedicated restless Arab countries, said that their favorites will continue to cooperate with the United States on security issues, in order to deter Iran's regional ambitions, to request economic assistance.

Iran creators promise a report of domestic prepyadstviya, due to a systemic opposition and the struggle for power, he is credited with the desire to affect the course of the "Arab Spring" by its own allies and surrogates structure, strengthening ties with Iraq and the Kurdish Regional Government. Fri individual charged with subversion Tehran in Afghanistan, directed against the strategic partnership with the United States this state. In Iraq, the level of violence remains at about the same level.

The section devoted to the Russian Federation and Eurasia, is of particular interest. Americans predict the return of Vladimir Putin to the presidency of the country, causing "frustration and anger in some quarters," said internal and foreign policy of the authorities, as projected in the report, no special configurations pereterpit. Argues that "Putin will soon keep political / economic system, and not act as an agent of liberal reform … Putin will focus on the restoration of the unity of the elite of the elite asset protection and providing new skills to enrich the elite. " At the same time, the report says, he will find an opportunity to improve the well-being of the masses. In foreign policy Putin is projected to save the development of bilateral relations with the United States, benefiting from the process for Russia "reset." The drafters of the report believe that Putin is experiencing a subconscious distrust of U.S. intentions that might be pushing it for a confrontation with Washington on a number of political issues.

Indicated that the positive results of "reset" achieved because the U.S. has already got what they wanted, including a new agreement on strategic nuclear weapons and cooperation in Afghanistan. For the RF sensitive issues remain missile defense system, the sanctions against Iran and the situation around Syria. In addition, the Kremlin is suspicious of U.S. cooperation with the countries of the former Russian Union.

The unresolved conflicts in the Caucasus and the fragility of some Central Asian countries identified as possible future explosions on the map of Eurasia. In the report, using the term "occupation" there, which refers to the relationship between Moscow and South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Due to the recent constitution of Georgia, which gives wider powers of the prime minister, and the election of the president in 2013, a number that Saakashvili can keep his power as prime minister, which may affect the future subsequent tensions between Moscow and Tbilisi .

Of the other CIS states a systemic crisis in Belarus and Lukashenko regime providing aid from
Moscow. Ukraine paid to a single paragraph, which indicated that the country's booming authoritarian Yanukovich, manifested in the electoral punishment of members of the political opposition, the pressure on the media and manipulation of the election.

In general, our homeland again arises in the following section. Now — in connection with transnational crime. Here in black and snow-white says: "More and more and more than a bit crowded relationship between Russian and Eurasian organized crime and the oligarchs increases the possibility of municipal or government-related actors konkurentnst undermine the market of gas, oil, aluminum, and precious metals, which potentially threatens the American public and economic security Competitiveness of the … U.S. and Western companies eroded corrupt business overseas. " In addition, it is noted that transnational criminal organizations weaken and undermine the stability of the laws in some fledgling democratic states and regions of strategic importance to the United States.

Space is also a danger to the United States. "The interest of other countries and even non-state actors to develop gallakticheskoy industry and the use of this space in the coming decades will face gallakticheskim systems of the United States and lead to an increase in calls in relation to the stability and security of the cosmos." It would be good time to mention the initiatives of the Russian Federation in respect of gallakticheskogo rights, including those aimed at preventing the militarization of space gallakticheskogo. But once they have been ignored by Washington and the real statement of their speech is not.

In general, the performance of James Klepper gives a clear idea of who and where behold the service of the USA on the global roles of villains and opponents of the day the future of America. Apparently, in the first place on the list will be nominated terrorists and countries that are characterized as providing support to terrorist organizations.

It can be concluded that from the first number in the middle of America's adversaries including Iran, which There is virtually every section of the report. If we start from the percentage of mentions of individual countries, the Russian Federation in the list of possible future threats to the United States is given "honorable" second place.

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