The financial market of Belarus is still paralyzed in anticipation of devaluation. Indirectly, the need to "release" the ruble has already declared and government officials, and representatives of the National Bank. However, the currency crisis could last for an indefinite period: to replenish reserves, the authorities are waiting for the Russian loan. Meanwhile, the actors try to work in a self-proclaimed devaluation, which immediately affected the prices of consumer goods.
A week ago Alexander Lukashenko promised to stabilize the foreign exchange market "in the coming days." But for this time subordinates have reported only on intentions: Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange will alternate bidding, and as for the sector of currency, you have to wait for May when go Russian loan of $ 1 billion. Independent economist Sergei Balykin convinced that the intention to legalize the difference ruble exchange power only complicate the situation:
"This is the worst decision. Will distort the economic situation, favorable conditions are created for all sorts of speculation, as will make those who are able to buy the currency at low rate and sell at the highest. And such persons, and it is easy to understand that it will be for the individual to whom they are approximate. So back in the 1990s. "
Reporter"On the cash market is adrezanue? For individuals, the devaluation is inevitable? . "
"In fact, this is the devaluation. What will happen in exchange — in fact, I do not know. If it is the same rate as non-cash, some commercial, then the currency will appear. And that would mean the recognition of this devaluation, which actually happens. And when in exchange rates will remain, which is now, it would only mean that the currency is there still does not appear and the public to buy anything and did not succeed. That's the dilemma. "
Determined by the National Bank official rate on April 26 — 3048 rubles per dollar. Meanwhile, the black market value of the dollar is very close to 4000. On the interbank exchange transactions generally exceed 5,000 rubles to the dollar, which caused dissatisfaction among the National Bank — limits on the maximum katsirovtsy was ordered to reduce to 4,500 rubles. Banks responded kind demarche completely stopped April 22 transactions for the sale of the OTC market.
An expert in the financial field Anatoly Ivanov considers short-sighted attempt to head the National Bank of the administrative. If you slow down the inevitable process and can then develop further still impossible without radical changes:
"It's not completely solve the problem, because all the cash rate will remain and the clearing. A dvaistasts or traistasts course does not solve the root of the issue to the end. Something they had almost made law, but there was no trading. Let's see where it leads. Because the National Bank of the auction will not take part. He released a free swimming and wants to wait to see what comes of it, which is the path, and if it is supported, what attachments do. IMF, I look says: finally made the first steps, but we need to go to the end of this path, save for the same energy — and heat, and electricity, which is now used by some actors too uncontrollably. That is to force the state to go to the austerity. In particular, and that salaries were real and not razdmutymi. So here it all together. "
From what is happening in the financial market who are suffering above all ordinary buyers. Deprived of free access to the currency, the importers are automatically placed into the cost of production amount that had to pay a premium for dollars, bought illegally. This is already evident from the prices of certain products imported under the new financial schemes: new potatoes from France — more than 8,000 rubles per kilogram, from Egypt — more than 5,000, pepper — 35000, etc.
In an increasingly uncertain one of the leaders of the movement of entrepreneurs Alexander Taustyka predicts a new round of price increases. According to him, the hope is that the Russian loan will unleash the shortage currency vain. The authorities of the money will be enough except for the fact that pay for old debt:
"It is clear that the one billion immediately go to pay off the loans that were taken earlier. We do know that they have in the near future to pay interest on other loans. Absolutely it will be clear later, but it is clear that this is not the resolution of the situation, not salvation. After all, we must first change the law, the Cabinet of Ministers. Giving the opportunity to work new economist, to conduct fundamental reforms in the field of legislation, and in the political, financial, and yet to step on the economic development of a market economy in Belarus, and not stubbornly stick to force the writ-economic model. "
Meanwhile, a growing number of banks that stop or restrict foreign exchange transactions on plastic cards. Among them is joined by one of the largest in the country — "Belagroprombank".
Meanwhile, according to the National Statistics Committee, real wages (wages adjusted to the growth of consumer prices for goods and services) in January-March 2011 compared with January-March 2010 increased by 25.2% in March 2011 compared with February 2011 — by 4.8%. Nominally, compared with February 2011, the average salary in the country increased by 6.8% or 97.9 thousand rubles.
According to official statistics, the nominal average monthly wage of workers of Belarus in January-March 2011 amounted to 1,463.7 million rubles, including the March — 1537.2 thousand rubles.