The British edition of the Financial Times writes about the chances of Belarus to get out of the economic crisis. Is the opinion of the expert, according to which the bottom of the crisis has passed and the recovery begins the Belarusian economy.
"Yields on government bonds exceeds 11%, so we believe that Belarus is one of the investment opportunities in the market. Now is the time to buy assets cheaply, while no one ahead of us" — believes Walter Malan the company BCP Securities.
He believes that after devaluation of the Belarusian ruble by 36% against the U.S. country has taken a good position. The devaluation has made industrial assets, such as MAZ, more attractive to potential (possibly Russian) buyers. Belarus also hopes to sell potash "Belaruskali" for $ 30 billion, which is about three-quarters of the country's GDP.
Malan said that Belarus is a clever game for support coming from the west and the east. Minsk received a loan of $ 3 billion from the Eurasian Economic Community in exchange for economic reforms, he is preparing a program of privatization for $ 7.5 billion, and asks for help from the IMF for $ 8 billion.
Belarus faces imminent default. The current account deficit should be reduced by half after the recent devaluation, and in the next two years will not be large payments. Most local analysts expect that the IMF will go to the continued support to keep the influence of the West — Walter says Malan.
"Meanwhile, the head of the IMF mission in Minsk Chris Jarvis made it clear to the this week, Belarus should adopt a program of structural reforms before it can count on any help, "- says the author of the article in FT Ian Tsenskogo.
He said that to get a new aid package from the IMF Minsk can be quite difficult, as the fund has already got burned once on lending to the authoritarian regime of Alexander Lukashenko. $ 3.5 billion that Belarus received from the IMF in 2009, helped to rescue the economy, but the government has not spent the reforms demanded by the Fund.
Tsenskogo notes that the European Union and the United States are also unlikely to have a great desire to give Lukashenko money without reforms, and recalls that the President and other representatives of the Belarusian official came under international sanctions for the violent repression against the opposition, after last year's presidential election.
Investors who are now willing to work in Belarus, you need to be prepared for high-risk — so, in fact, these markets are called market development — says Ian Tsenskogo.