After the National Bank gave up trying to determine the appropriate rate of the Belarusian ruble on the basis of supply and demand in an extra session of the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange, acquired kursavtvarenne chaotic. On the black market dollar price jumps from 3.5 to 5.5 thousand rubles. Through currency issue 600,000 workers across the country temporarily suspended operations. What effect will the desire of the authorities at all costs to keep a semblance of stability?
While individuals and entire companies are looking to convert Belarusian money though in what currency, including the hryvnia, zloty, Lytham, etc., the authorities every day defiantly "strengthens" the ruble: the official rate of the National Bank on April 29 determined in the ratio 13, 3000 rubles per $ 1.
Meanwhile, in the informal sector more entities estimate the dollar in 5000 rubles. Ivan Rusak, a representative of a commercial firm that supplies to Belarus components, states: in a "monetary anarchy," the work of the majority of importers who are denied access to credit and legal currency, effectively paralyzed
"Banks are in stagnation for foreign exchange transactions. And if the entities do something else, then the physical — no operation at all. Sitting workers, salaried, someone went on vacation. Meanwhile importers understand how to form prices. Everybody can see what's going on — the prices grow many times! people want to buy something but can not. And with that every day more and more people face.
For example, someone orders the imported goods, but traders do not fulfill their obligations, because they can not buy the currency. In other words, both for business and for the public, this situation is extremely negative. Better to importers and the public could buy the currency although some date than what is happening now — it can not get at all. No one knows how to act at all: in order to buy at a high rate, which is now taking shape, or expect any changes? And prices meanwhile up everywhere. "
Analysts are convinced that society has long agreed that the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble — inevitable. And the faster "let go" of the national currency, the better. It is obvious that now seem only right earlier recommendations of the International Monetary Fund, the Belarusian authorities to conduct the 15-percent devaluation. Now, however, predict the financiers, having lost so much time, do not even have to depreciate by 30% and 50% on everything.
But, says an expert on the financial industry Anatoly Voronin, National Bank continues to refuse to follow the advice of both the West and the East. He recalls that even in return for Russian stabilization loan requires a reform of fiscal and monetary policy. If the other party does not exclude that the West at improving the practical impasse preventing and personal factors:
"Prokopovych, from what I've heard, unequivocally said, while I was at the helm, I will not allow any devaluation. That is, He said, if it will not be such that the rate of the ruble to the dollar will rise to some incredible heights. Ka know, we Prokopovych health problems, and I do not think that after such operations people can remain fully in the workplace, because in such a situation, it really is and heavier loads and stresses, etc.
Therefore, with high probability we can predict that in the foreseeable future, we are waiting for a change of the head of the National Bank. At the very least, will express such an opinion. But Prokopovych, however, as an officer of the promises fulfilled. When it was declared stable. But as soon as the next, there will be a different situation. And the charge for the fiscal paralysis, of course, will also be with the other person. "
In the meantime, the National Bank hopes solely on the Russian loan, the total amount of which under the most successful scenario could reach $ 3 billion. But the issue of how to use the money, government spending, even financiers. If the head of the foreign exchange control Anatoly Moroz said that the funds will be directed at the elimination of foreign exchange shortages, including those enrolled in banking exchangers, the head of the information Anatoly Drozdov clarifies: no credit penny on foreign targets will not do, everything will be aimed at ensuring gold and foreign exchange reserves.
However, the National Bank has categorically rejected the idea of introducing as the sole legal tender on the territory of the State Union of the Russian ruble. Russian Ambassador to Belarus Alexander Surikov expressed the opinion that in a severe financial crisis and actually devalued currency Minsk, Belarus has no choice but to return to the "canned" the idea of unification with the Russian currency.