The message of Alexander Lukashenko: what consequences for independent society?

Society members: a political and social activist Alexander Dobrovolsky and editor of the online newspaper "we" Cyril Pozniak.

Cyril Pozniak

Alexander Dobrovolsky

Valery Karbalevich

Fortress Under Siege

Valery Karbalevich"Never before has the message Lukashenko did not start with a story that Belarus — is a besieged fortress surrounded by external and internal enemies. And now the president said that the enemies — is the main cause of all the problems.

And once again been highlighted by a separate path of Belarus. Lukashenko said that we want to get to be like everyone, we want to impose democracy in the form of separation of powers, the privatization. But democracy — is the way to anarchy.

Abstracts are not new. But now they are clear and at the beginning of the performance. And the second point: they are declared at the time when everyone is talking about the crisis of the Belarusian social model and the need for change. How do you rate it? . "

Alexander Dobrovolsky"The power for the first time faced a large-scale crisis. Lukashenko is constantly trying to prevent the future. After all, the existing social model was optimal for maintaining power. But this model could only exist thanks to the support from the outside. Now the external support has decreased.

Now it turned out that the policy of preventing future is hopeless. His model shows off her nezhytstsyazdolnasts. Lukashenko was frightened. But other ways out of the situation, other than strengthening the dictatorship, he does not. "

Cyril Pozniak"Speech has been unconventional. He did not look like a message to parliament and the people, but as a regular meeting with the security forces. Lukashenko called the current situation a "special." This can be considered a euphemism for the word "emergency." In fact, we have seen the introduction of a state of emergency, although the ideological and political level.

Zatsiskanne goes nuts with regard not to the political opposition, and to society.

Zatsiskanne goes nuts with regard not to the political opposition, and to society. Indeed, at a time when more acute economic problems is the pressure from the West and from the East, the authorities are afraid of the growth of public civil protests. And besides repression, the government can not act otherwise. In addition, nothing else, and it does not remain. After all, other ways "razrulvannya" situations, such as playing liberalization — is a risk. A "crackdown" must somehow justify ideologically. Therefore, the sound of these theses on democracy as evil. "

All choke?

Karbalevich"In fact, that's the first, and that the second? If the cause of all negative moments in the public life of Belarus from the currency crisis in the terrorist attack, according to Lukashenko, are in excess of liberalization and democratization that took place during the election campaign, then the assessment of the situation Lukashenko makes a simple conclusion: crush all dissent. "Any" fifth column "we will destroy," — he said. Help from abroad — banned.

Or, on the contrary, it aims to push all, and for this he needed this justification of repression that the president made at the outset? . "

Dobrowolski"Now the economic model shows its ineffectiveness. There is a shortage of currency, the ruble falls, and these vaunted $ 500 average wages are converted into $ 250.

In this situation, a leader who cares about the fate of the country would seek to upgrade this model to start working. But Lukashenko says something else. This means that it primarily seeks to preserve power. In such a case it is senseless to look first or second. "

Pozniak"The process of pressure and never stopped. Unlikely to increase repression of the opposition and the independent media. Here Lukashenko sends some signals of a dialogue with the West. The aim is to limit protests kitchens and show that the government is strong and it does not seem to. "

What awaits an independent company?

Karbalevich"So, maybe, in terms of the policy of the authorities 'crackdown' — the most rational? Here the opposition cornered social protests there, although the country's economic crisis. People are afraid. That such a policy gives the desired result? . "

Dobrowolski"The last ten years of opposition in no way prevented Lukashenko holds its policy. Therefore, the pressure on the opposition to him does not solve any problems. Therefore agreed to the idea that it's not the pressure on the opposition, and all the discontented. And there are now a majority. After all, wages, bank deposits denominated depreciate.

Belarus — a country with an open economy in Central Europe. Not have the resources to close the country. It's just a distraction denouement.

While such a policy is effective. But it is hopeless. Belarus — a country with an open economy in Central Europe. Not have the resources to close the country. It's just a distraction isolation. "

Pozniak"Indeed, while such a policy is effective. The repression against the opposition have fruit. She crushed. And there is accumulating growing protests. Threats and intimidation do not allow the new leader to arise, and to society — to organize themselves on the basis of the protest. One of the mechanisms of such self-organization can be online. Therefore recently heard statements from officials that he should be brought under strict control. "

Karbalevich"There is a limit to this pressure, which is going, you can" cross-thread "? Or such boundaries do not exist, and can be infinitely crush? . "

Dobrowolski"Here in North Korea is just such a system, if you can push limitless. After all, it is self-sufficient. In Belarus, the situation is different, it is highly dependent on external factors.

Power, refusing to engage in dialogue with the opposition, close to the path of evolution of the Belarusian model. And thus leading the country to revolution, and what is unknown. "

Pozniak"This border is. This depth of the economic crisis. "

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