These are not empty words. There is a huge amount of trivial reasons, which clearly point to the fact that the Ukrainian government is on the verge of breaking up, and predict what would be the future development of events is unrealistic. The coming 2012 will be a turning point for Ukraine, but it is unclear which of the critical reasons will catalyze the development of the situation.
Factor First — the economic one. The crisis, which enveloped the country very adversely affected the conjuncture: a large part of the global markets, where the products are sold to Ukrainian production closed. In this regard, it is worth noting first metal, which almost all defined level stability of the country. It should be noted also that specifically fall in demand for this product has provoked an economic crisis in 2008. With all of this increase in gas prices, which in recent years have grown by 10 times (from 50 to 500 dollars), do not have such influence on economic processes, such as metallurgy. Moreover, there is no solution to this prepyadstviya not expected, that can only mean one thing — reducing the money is transferred to the municipal budget and job cuts, as well as it should, and unemployment. Moreover, difficulties have appeared in chemical industry. If Parliament will accept the law on the introduction of fees for Russian chemical enterprises, this will lead to increase in the price of products and, accordingly, will make Ukrainian chemical products uncompetitive in the global market.
Second risk is the lack of internal resources. The government has been unable to establish economic programs that would assist pull the country out of crisis. And instead of doing redistribution of spheres of influence. Although the municipal reserve, there are still large infrastructure projects, such as steel road and agricultural land, but it goes to the fact that very soon and they turned into someone else's property.
These were the result of prepyadstviya the third factor — the absolute illogical domestic policies pursued by the government. Replaced in order to provide funds for the modernization of industrial and military industries, for energy savings, the government throw money "down the drain", carrying the image projects and favoring bolshennomu business. Now the government is engaged in carving up the funds allocated for the preparation for Euro 2012, although only those funds that have been allocated for the reconstruction of the "Olympic", would be enough for half the insulation of apartments in the capital. In relation to small and medium-sized businesses operate on the principle of power to take more — less to give. So Makar, they resign themselves to the government and the lack of prospects for development. Besides, since independence none government failed to carry out any reform that is now the time could be seen as a success and to use as a reference on "how to do it." So Makar, the higher will be the level of politicization of society and the higher the level of zeal political groups in power, the lower the level and effectiveness of the reforms.
And then there is nothing to be surprised that in the end all of these problems will complete overthrow of the regime's legitimacy. And already at this time there have been prerequisites for this. Even in areas that were previously heavily supported Yanukovych, his approval rating fell to 23 percent. In other regions this level does not exceed 16 percent. Even today, in the case of the presidential election, the incumbent would have lost their Vitali Klitschko and Yatsenyuk. Most of the people are no longer satisfied with the work of the presidential party. Moreover, in the country there is not the 1st of the contract between the public by ordinary citizens and elites that would really work. The current government although the methods are trying to keep their corrupt practices inside the elite intensively pursuing the fight against bribery in the middle of an ordinary link. In the end, the balance has been broken. The last straw was the closure of the free file hosting EX.UA. Ordinary citizens have shown that a similar situation does not suit them. The result was the hacking of government web resources, which led officials to their senses. However, a similar trend can be fully will lead to the fact that the ruling elite will retain only the outer shell of its own legitimacy.
In these criteria necessarily arise and more one factor — the voltage inside the elite itself. Between the president and the oligarchs that have to nedavneshnego time intensively supported him and government, it is perceptible cooling. And the level of conflict is growing every day or. Yanukovych and is interested in preserving the remains of the legality of their own government, but expect handouts from big business does not want to. That's why he is trying in every way to show their independence, promoting a bureaucratic own chair "henchmen." The promotion of this financial and industrial group goes so openly and firmly, that, of course, causes great discontent business elite. Such a confrontation at some point lead to the fact that mutual support is lost, and it escalates into open conflict.
In the event that the confrontation over the country's borders, it can become beginning of political isolation from the larger external players. The number of so-called "black mark", warnings, acquired the Yanukovich government, is a very impressive list. Can be noted in the middle of the last statement of the Municipal Department of the U.S. political persecution, U.S. intelligence report on the folding processes of democracy in the country, requiring a retrial Tymoshenko PACE resolution, the development of a trade war with the adjoining Russia. From time to time, the Ukrainian government has spoiled the case with one of the countries, but for the first time since independence, official Kiev managed to quarrel with almost everybody.
As a result, Ukraine will be without the support of international mediators, and thus be deprived of a stable society. So Makar, before parliamentary elections are inevitable social unrest that can find a variety of forms of expression.
These reasons will become a prerequisite for change in 2012. Government, which is on the edge of the abyss, it will be to move the ladder of social progress, but in what direction? ..