Ukraine: results of the 2012 and 2013 calls breadbasket of China, the servant of the IMF, the Weimar Republic, a dying CTA and future rebellion

Ukraine: results of the 2012 and 2013 calls "breadbasket" of China, the servant of the IMF, the "Weimar Republic", a dying GTS and the upcoming riot

Radical change of the structure of the executive branch, the new parliament, which for the first time since independence of Ukraine presented the ultra-political force — "Freedom", snowballing social and economic crisis, the actual foreign policy insulation for Ukrainian favorites, unchanging "games" with Russia on about the Customs Union and gas contracts — are the main milestones in 2012 for Ukraine.

Domestic policy

Parliamentary elections and reformatting the legislature

The main event of the year was the next parliamentary elections held in Ukraine on October 28. Specifically asked the domestic political agenda of the election the whole year and particularly in the light of the struggle for votes should be evaluated more resonant action in the country. Following the elections, the Central Election Commission of Ukraine recognized the elected deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of the seventh convocation of 220 candidates in majority districts and another 225 from party lists. Namely, the Party of Regions won in a new parliament, 185 people (according to the lists — 72 mazhoritarschikov — 113), the united opposition of "Fatherland" — 101 seats (62 and 39 respectively), "Blow" Vitali Klitschko — 40 seats (34 and 6) "Freedom" — 37 seats (25 and 12) — ie all opposition won 178 seats, the Communist Party — 32 seats (all on the party list). In addition, in majority districts in the newly elected Ukrainian parliament passed 43 self-promoter, 3 representatives of the party "United Center", 2 — People's Party, 1 — Constructive Party Oleg Lyashko, 1 — the party "Alliance".

Given the fact that the vast majority of self-nominees won the elections close the party in power, we can say a landslide election victory party of Yanukovych. Accordingly, the Ukrainian authorities have the opportunity to take in the Parliament at least some necessary decisions by a simple majority of votes — 226, and is fully feasible to collect 300 votes to make configurations in the Constitution. At around 5 majority of the CEC and the Supreme Rada recommended to hold new elections because of the inability to establish clear results. With all this opposition believes that the finding of a failure to establish the CEC election results in the vicinity of the majority means the actual acceptance of the fact of manipulation and falsification of election results in these surroundings. According to statements from the camp of the Party of Regions, the repeated elections in the troubled area may be held in the spring of 2013.

Turnout for the election was 57.99%, the CEC report. Most properties are generally the highest were recorded in the west of the country — in the Ternopil region — 66.78% and Lviv — 67.13%. The lowest turnout was observed in the basal regions of the party in power: in the Crimea — 49.46%, and the Odessa region — 49.64%. In the Donetsk region came to vote 59.72% of voters in Kiev — 62.11%, while in the capital of a quarter of the voters supported the "Freedom."

Evaluation Ukrainian election by the international community has been quite critical. Specifically, as noted in the final report of the PACE, the parliamentary elections in Ukraine were marred by a missing level of competitiveness, facilitating the dominance of large economic and financial groups, implementation of administrative resources, lack of transparency in the financing of election campaigns and political parties, the imbalance in media coverage. With all of this was emphasized that actually voting and counting were conducted fairly and quietly masterful. Perhaps the harshest assessment of the election, the U.S. State Department. "Parliamentary elections in Ukraine were a step back from the progress that has been observed during the last parliamentary elections and the presidential elections in 2010 that marked a major step made by Ukraine towards democracy" — convinced Washington. In general, no obvious practical implications for Kiev voiced criticism, at least, as of today, has not brought. See the West (yet?) Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine satisfied with promises to "work on our mistakes."

December 13 the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has chosen a member of the parliamentary faction of the Party of Regions, the first deputy chairman of the Party of Regions Volodymyr Rybak head of the Ukrainian parliament of the seventh convocation. First Deputy Speaker of Parliament has become a member of the parliamentary faction of the Communist Party of Igor Kalyetnik, and the second deputy speaker — a representative of "Freedom" Ruslan Koshulinsky, voted for the candidate whose 305 members, including 126 deputies from the Party of Regions (for comparison for Kaletnik voted 241 MP for Fisher — 250). The new speaker, said his political credo — "political stability and socio-economic development." "This position is supported by our people and our voters. Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada To importantly — an extensive awareness of all the political forces of the welfare of the country, and it is above all the party's interests," — he said. Rybak calls himself a friend of the President, which, according to him, he knows more than 30 years. Experts note that with the Speaker of Yanukovych can be sure that the Verkhovna Rada will not ripen sudden komploty against him.

Reformatting executive

December 3rd, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov to the president, a statement of resignation, in connection with his election to the parliamentary elections in Ukraine. Since, according to Article 115 of the Constitution of the resignation of prime minister is due to resignation of the entire Cabinet, the President accepted the resignation of the Ukrainian government. December 13 deputies of the Verkhovna Rada pereutverdili Azarov as prime minister, supporting 252 votes befitting the president's initiative, and December 24 Yanukovych announced a new government, with their positions retained only six ministers of the previous Cabinet. Thus, the President of Ukraine changed quite deputy prime minister — the first vice-prime minister of the Ukrainian government was Sergei Arbuzov, deputy prime ministers appointed Yuriy Boiko, Alexander and Konstantin Grishchenko Vilkul. According to the decree, Arbuzov responsible for the areas of food and land policies, economic development, trade, social policy, money, income and fees; Boyko — for spheres of ecology, natural resources, energy, the coal industry and industrial policy; Vilkul — for spheres of infrastructure, Regional Development, Construction and Housing and Communal Services, Grishchenko — for the humanities.

Experts and opposition politicians assess the new government exactly how to strengthen the position of the "family" of Yanukovych. People entering the inner circle of the president and his eldest son Alexander, said First Deputy Prime Minister Arbuzov, Minister of Finance of Yuri Kolobov, the head of the Ministry of Revenue and Duties of Alexander Klimenko, Interior Minister Vitaly Zakharchenko. Moreover, the views of many political analysts, this government is faster, Technical and will work just enough to Sergei Arbuzov felt within themselves the confidence to become the new prime minister. It is interesting that even the Azarov does not de
ny the ability of such a turn of events. "At some point I will leave the post of prime minister. Quite obvious that the government should be people who are ready to change the prime minister. First Vice Prime Minister — a very tough position, which is to help the Prime Minister in the adoption and implementation of the decisions … I'm completely normal to that first Vice Prime Minister — Sergey Arbuzov. And the bad is the deputy prime minister, who does not want to be prime minister, "- Prime Minister told the press today.

The President's representative in the Verkhovna Rada Yuriy Miroshnichenko told the press that Yanukovych is "very carefully and painstakingly studied each candidate." "The President has chosen the new government of the people, who are able to fit very well to the challenges faced by Ukraine, and to continue the policy of reform," — he said.

Destiny made in the first days of 2013, also confirms the policy of strengthening the "family". Thus, Yanukovych declared for the presidency of the Security Service of Ukraine Oleksandr Yakymenko and the Verkhovna Rada approved by the president as head of the National Bank of Ukraine Igor Sorkin. Both newly-appointed bureaucrat enter into the orbit of influence of Alexander Yanukovych.

Opposition

Ex-Prime Minister of Ukraine, despite the best efforts of his supporters in Ukraine and quite harsh statements from abroad, continues to serve the sentence in the case of gas contracts with Russia. Moreover, in May 2012, the Prosecutor General of Ukraine Viktor Pshonka announced that Tymoshenko will incriminate another four criminal cases, among which — the organization of the resonance in the murder of a prominent Ukrainian businessman and politician Yevgeny Shcherban in 1996.

More resonant action associated with Tymoshenko took place in April — the transport of the colony to the clinic for her, according to the former prime minister, was used force. As stated in the appeal Tymoshenko, her hands twisted and struck his fist in the stomach, from which was a big bruise. Photos showing the beating policy, have been demonstrated in public — that is, at a meeting of the Ombudsman with the ambassadors of all the states of Europe.

Do not stand aside and the Russian Foreign Ministry called on the authorities of Ukraine to the humane appeal from Tymoshenko. Moreover, Putin proposed that the healing of ex-prime minister of Ukraine in Russia: "If Tymoshenko considers probable and if the Ukrainian authorities, our Ukrainian partners agree with this, we would have accepted with pleasure Yulia Vladimirovna Tymoshenko in Russia for the treatment in at least some comfort to her and to the authorities of Ukraine time, any healing institution. "

January 8, 2013 Tymoshenko announced share civilian disobedience "in the community to reduce the fear of the regime, so to say again (power) that you humiliate and destroy Ukraine." There are no prerequisites to ensure that the status of Tymoshenko in 2013 changed not. Is that the former prime minister condemn something else in the criminal case and transferred from the clinic where she is currently treated, back to the colony.

In the absence of opposition leader Tymoshenko to head of Ukraine won the favorite of the party "Front for Change" Yatsenyuk. Specifically, he (along with Tymoshenko) led the electoral list "Fatherland" in the parliamentary elections, it was he who became the head of the faction "Fatherland" in the Verkhovna Rada of the seventh convocation. Slightly Tymoshenko faction of the party, "Blow" Klitschko "Freedom" coordinated their actions to the unity of the opposition, an unexpected blow to the scheme paid a … European Parliament. Namely, the European Parliament in December called party democratic trend in the Verkhovna Rada not to unite, not to support and build alliances with "Freedom" as the political force holds "racist, anti-Semitic and xenophobic views that are contrary to the basic European values and principles."

In general, the above resolution the EP is likely to be ignored. January 9 deputy speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, a member of the party "Svoboda" Ruslan Koshulinsky said that "Freedom", "Fatherland" and "Blow" and will cooperate in the upcoming, "and there will be things such as centrifugal motion and any unconsolidated vote. " Went even further Verkhovna Rada deputy from the "Freedom" Yuri Mihalchishin, who said that the European Parliament sits perverts and engaged in "soviet propaganda."

Outside politics

Will be completely correct to say that in 2012 for Victor Yanukovych regime was introduced "myagenkoy isolation," especially from the favorites of the EU and major European countries. In general, in 2012, Ukrainian President Yanukovych made 17 visits abroad, most of which occurred in the Asian direction — namely, Yanukovych visited India, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan. Also, a working visit to the Ukrainian country to Cyprus, Turkmenistan, Turkey, Korea and Poland. Yanukovych 4 times a working visit to Russia. Of the activities on a global scale, Ukrainian President visited the Global Economic Forum in Davos, the 48th Munich Conference on Security Policy, the meeting of the North Atlantic Council, 67 th Session of the UN General Assembly (the latter two events were held in the U.S.). How can I create, there was no trip to Brussels or the capital of the leading states of the EU.

Ukraine-Russia

4 times the President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych visited in 2012 on a working visit Russia, but the overall results of the year in this area should be seen through the prism of the fifth visit, scheduled for December 18, but in the end did not take place. All year, official Kiev stood at the position that is not willing to choose between the Customs Union and the creation of an FTA with the EU, but closer to a brand new year, Ukrainian authorities have made obvious flirting with Moscow. Namely, Yanukovich at a press briefing in Ashgabat on December 5, said that Kiev is configured to search for an effective instrument of cooperation with the Customs Union. "" We are well aware that if we do not find an instrument of cooperation with the Customs Union, we have much to lose — that now is not acceptable for the economy Ukraine. Our proposal that we discussed a couple of years in a row, is to ensure that we need to adhere to certain provisions of the Customs Union ", — he said.

A little later, in its appeal to the Ukrainian people and the people's deputies in connection with the beginning of the Verkhovna Rada of the 7th convocation of general Yanukovych said that Ukraine will join the uniform rules of the Customs Union, because it focuses a great market for Ukrainian products. Apotheosis was in the middle of December — told the press that on December 17-18, during the visit of the President of Ukraine in Moscow may start turning vector integration of the country, closer to the TC in the criteria for the large budget deficit and the uncertainty of the European prospects.

Ukrainian opposition, in turn, said that under the "U-turn" and the foreseen decrease in the price of Russian gas in 2 times. But almost at the last moment of the visit was frustrated because, according to the official version, "for the successful implementation of the agreements require additional consultations at the expert level."

In general, some politicians in Kiev expressed much more sharply — so, the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada and at that time acting Minister of Economic Affairs of the Government of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko expressly stated that the visit was canceled because of the initiative of the Russian side, and why — "better to ask Vladimir Putin." Another deputy and former head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations o
f Ukraine Viktor Balogh believes that control of the Russian Federation to the Ukrainian side, "a very great demands, the management of the Russian Federation a lot of wishes."

Summing up the topic on its own balance sheet press conference, Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union at the moment discussions are generally not. "In order to specifically so it came Makar, we should get a formal request Ukraine to join the Customs alliance. Such a proposal is not." Coupled with the fact he admitted that Ukraine is more and more difficult to solve the economic problems related to the work on the Russian market. The last statement in 2012 announced the salting of the Russian Federation to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov, who said that taking into account existing realities of the decision on cooperation in the direction of Ukraine-Kiev vehicle to take over the coming six months.

Ukraine and the EU

March 30, 2012 the heads of delegations of Ukraine and the European Union in Brussels initialed an Association Agreement, and in July the parties separately initialed the text of the agreement on free trade zone between Ukraine and the EU, which is an integral part of the Association Agreement. So Makar, now initialed the full text of the Association Agreement EU and Ukraine, and the subsequent step would be the ratification of this document.

During the year, in Brussels heard critical statements about the "European integration" of Ukraine to the fact that Yulia Tymoshenko and several of its associates are behind bars, but by the end of the year, the EU's position on this issue softened. Namely, the representative of the European Commission responsible foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said that the signing of the Association Agreement EU-Ukraine may occur during the summit of "Eastern Partnership" in Vilnius (November 2013), and more than that, the EU does not rule out that the signing may organized before the summit. The same position was confirmed by the European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy Stefan Fule.

Brussels pushes Kiev subsequent conditions — decision problems electoral laws, electoral justice (without directly mentioning Tymoshenko) and the implementation of the reforms laid down in the order of the day or the association. This position of the EU is allowed to Yanukovych during a meeting with leaders diplomatically missions of foreign countries and international organizations on December 14 to say that prior to the signing of the Association Agreement was one step. "I am convinced that if there is political will on both sides we can as quickly as possible to do" — said Yanukovych.

Ukrainian question and open a discussion at a meeting of the Euro Parliament in December. As the media during the debate was not the 1st to vote against the signing of the Association Agreement, ambiguous moment is the only solution — to sign the document immediately or only when the Kiev Council voiced EU criteria.

European edition EUobserver in December said that the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia are ready to sign an association agreement with Ukraine at the summit of "Eastern Partnership" in the fall of 2013, "despite the erosion of democratic standards in Ukraine." "We do not think (the contract) gift for the Ukrainian government, but more by opening the prospects for the Ukrainian people and the introduction of the European agenda for the day or Ukrainian government," — said a senior diplomat of one of the four states. Sweden, Finland, Denmark and the Netherlands believe that the association agreement to freeze after the Ukrainian government signed their own political enemies and held parliamentary elections in their favor. France and Britain support the negotiations on a small level, while Germany has so far not determined.

Ukraine-China

Strategic cooperation Kiev and Beijing, officially launched in 2011, in 2012, gained momentum rapidly. Namely, in June 2012, during an official visit to the Ukrainian Minister of Land Policy and Food Mykola Prysyazhnyuk in China signed a memorandum on cooperation in the sphere of support of priority projects in the agricultural sector of Ukraine. Under the agreement, expected to attract credit funds worth $ 3 billion. for projects in the Ukrainian land sector. As stated by the experts in real time China intensively trying to protect themselves from a possible food crisis and aims to bring Ukraine into its own granary.

December 25, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine signed a loan agreement between "Naftogaz of Ukraine" and the Municipal Development Bank of China on the financing of the programs from natural gas substitution Ukrainian coal totaling $ 3.656 billion. a municipal guarantee of the Ukrainian government. Parties argued that the implementation of the designated programs from Ukraine will allow not only to significantly reduce import dependence and improve energy security. As the Prime Minister Azarov, a successful implementation of this project will allow the parties talk about the other, more large-scale joint initiatives.

Earlier, the President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych congratulated Xi Jinping on his election as general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, expressed the hope that the upcoming revival of development of bilateral strategic partnership, the implementation of existing agreements on the implementation of large-scale projects in various fields of cooperation, the expansion of humanitarian contacts between Ukrainian and Chinese peoples. With all of this is at the moment a line of credit of the State Bank of China to Ukraine exceeds the total annual credit packs Global Bank, Euro Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Euro vkladyvatelnogo bank, moreover, with Beijing Kiev discusses the opening of the consulate in Ukraine Municipal Development Bank of China.

In general, we can say that China is quite intensively involved in the global rally "Ukrainian card", and for the past 2 years have greatly strengthened its position in this regard.

Socio-economic crisis

President Viktor Yanukovych at the end of December, expressly recognized the bad economic performance of Ukraine in 2012. "The work of the economy in 2012, significantly worse than forecasts … They are worse than the characteristics that are necessary for the formation of the budget for the current year," — he said. Yanukovych said that according to preliminary government estimates for the year is planned GDP growth of 1%, with all this in the state budget-2012 pawned GDP growth 3.9%. As a result, the lack of state budget amounted to 2.6%, higher at the beginning of the pledged target of 1.7%. "In the world there are many countries in which these characteristics are significantly worse, but the console itself that should not be," — he said.

Also it should be noted that in 2012, international reserves of Ukraine decreased by 22.8%, or by $ 7.2 billion. According to estimates of professionals, a critical level of reserves corresponds to the three-month volume of imports. For Ukraine, at the moment it is around $ 21 billion. It is reasonable to look, the international rating agency Moody's Investor's Service in December downgraded Ukraine's government bonds by one notch — from B2 to B3, with all this weather — bad. Downgrade explains lowering assessment of institutional forces of Ukraine, the lack of external liquidity, which increases the danger to the national currency, the relatively feeble economic forecasts for Ukraine. It is emphasized that Ukraine's rating can be improved only when the applets will resume cooperation with the IMF.

Cash outcome of Euro 2012

, Said after the tournament at the time the first Vice Prime Minister — Minister of Infrastructure Borys Kolesnikov, Ukrainian government, Ukraine izderzhala in pre
paration for Euro-2012 $ 5,000,000,000., Which in the main have been focused on the construction of airports, roads, preparation of transport infrastructure. With all this opposition called the other numbers, demanding to make a commission of inquiry on the use of $ 10 billion. to prepare. Precise number of profit have not been made public, but for a guide, you can specify that the National Bank of Ukraine expects to receive from the FIFA $ 1 billion., And experts of the analytical group Da Vinci AG estimate that Ukraine will receive about $ 800 million Seeing this situation, the president Viktor Yanukovych hastened to declare in public that the economic impact of the Euro 2012 is now impossible to count, "but we can say for sure that this is an investment in the future." Economists unanimously noted the negatives of the Euro 2012: the country needs to repay debts, to find the funds to cover the budget deficit, with all this is very unclear whether applied at full capacity built stadiums, hotels and airports.

Ukraine against the WTO

One of the long-running stories, the economy has become Ukraine's intention to revise the terms of their own role in the WTO. Namely, in Kiev wants to raise the highest rates of duty on 350 kinds of products. "Ukraine operates in strict accordance with the charter of the WTO. We have the right for a specified period, with certain risks to measures taken for the protection of our market. And at the moment we are going through all the statutory WTO procedures associated with this revision" — more than once said the Prime Minister Azarov. In general, at a meeting of the WTO Committee in October against Ukraine's desire to revise tariffs acted 58 states in support of no one spoke. Moreover, the U.S. is practically accused Ukraine of trying to undermine the WTO framework, noting that the proposed actions by Ukraine will have severe systemic effects, and everyone is very concerned about the precedent that could eventually appear.

The gas issue

In 2012, which has already become common in recent years the head of Kiev to Moscow to reconsider the conditions currently existing contracts weakened somewhat. The gas agenda asked of another plan — namely, our homeland has launched a second line of the "Nord Stream", further reducing the transit of "blue fuel" through the countryside of Ukraine. Shred Ukraine in transit Russian gas to Europe was in early January 2013 42% — for comparison, in the first quarter of 2011 was a fraction of Ukraine at 63%, and in the first quarter of 2012 — 56%. What's the opposite of Kiev, in 2012 officially kicked off the process of building the "South Stream" — a project that is already in the coming term, does all the unnecessary Ukrainian GTS.

It should be noted retaliatory moves Kiev "diversification" of gas supply sources. For example, "Naftogaz of Ukraine" signed a contract with the German company RWE, which in all likelihood, gas supplies to Ukraine, previously acquired from "Gazprom". When all this is said in Kiev, the gas is "much cheaper than Russian." In general, in 2012 Kiev imported from Europe about 57 million cubic meters of gas, which is only 0.2% of the volume, which the company bought from Russia. True, it is stated that in 2013 Ukraine plans to import at reverse pattern about 5 billion. cu. meters of gas.

November 26, 2012 in the presence of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov signed an agreement to develop a consortium of investors Ukrainian national project "LNG-terminal" and the placement of mobile floating platform for liquefied natural gas near the port "South" in the Odessa region. At the signing ceremony, the head of the Municipal Agency for Investments and Management of public projects Kaskiv said that the terminal will help as soon as possible to make another source of gas supply to the area of Ukraine. "November 26 can be called days of Ukraine's energy independence," — appointed bureaucrat. However, already for the next day was that the representative of Spain, signed the documents — some of Jordi Sarda Bonvin — has no relationship to the company Gas Natural SDG, betrothed to the future operator of the terminal, and the company said it would not sign any contracts. Then press found out that Bonwit — ordinary ski instructor, who worked in the resorts of Andorra. Already in 2013, President Yanukovych said that no technical hitches did not suspend the Ukraine, and the LNG-terminal project to be implemented. However, no specifics with the project partners for today is not, and Ukraine itself embody it can not.

Also, discussing the gas issue, it should be noted that the Ukraine in 2012, contrary to the contract, the Russian gas imports dropped by 40% and wants to reduce the level of purchases in the future. Accordingly, the views of lawyers on the basis of 2012-2013 years. "Gazprom" could expose Ukraine fine of $ 8.4 billion. The possibility of an appeal to the Tribunal and recognized the head of "Gazprom" Alexei Miller, told the press: "Without a doubt, we are very closely relate to the legal nuances of the performance of our contract. Documents that we have today, if that will not be made small volume purchases our Russian gas could form the basis of our claim to the Ukrainian side. "

The attraction of social generosity

March 7, 2012 (recall that the question about the year of parliamentary elections), Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych said that the positive growth of the state economy provides the ability to improve social standards in Ukraine and outlined four strategic directions of social reform — the restoration of the fundamental principle of social justice, the abolition benefits for those who do not need it; transformation approaches to wages, taxes and social insurance, moderating the subsequent social and economic polarization of society; profound modernization of the public welfare, the transition from unsystematic payments to the address, to facilitate the effective employment and job creation for the people. He also said that the Ukrainian authorities to re-start the program from debt repayment to depositors of the Savings Bank of the USSR, and ordered the government to conduct a phased increase in pensions. As stated by the authorities, in general, the implementation of social initiatives in 2012 only needed about 16 billion. hryvnia (about $ 2 billion.). There are no clear figures on how many actually Ukrainian government spent last year on "social programs" No, but do not have to hesitate, that the above payments to a large extent contributed to the sad end of the year for the Ukrainian economy.

Ukraine and the IMF

In Kiev, do not lose hope, that at some point break in relations with the Fund completed and the parties will agree on an upcoming collaboration. The main and perhaps the only contentious issue is the increase in gas tariffs for the population of Ukraine. "It is possible to recall the example of France, where an increase of 2% of the price of gas for the population open a discussion for almost a year. Offers us the IMF increment tariffs by 50%, but, to put it mildly, our people poorer than the French, because we want to offer to find other ways to reduce the budget deficit and ensure the stability of the national currency, "- said Prime Minister Azarov. In late December, he noted that the financial resources of the world and quite without the IMF, "and we are currently working hard to ensure that they are involved in the Ukrainian economy on the lucrative criteria." In general, experts at the fund still does not remain aloof from the affairs of the Ukrainian economy, namely, power, and does not hide the fact that the IMF representative in charge of the preparation of the state budget.

Humanitarian Policy

Language law

August 8, Ukrainian President Yanukovych signed a previously pa
ssed by the Verkhovna Rada of the law "On the Principles of State Language Policy". This document, namely, the establishment provides for the official use of regional languages in the work of local state authorities for stays of a minimum of 10% of the carriers in the territories in which vserasprostranen the language. Accordingly, the Russian language has regional status in 13 jurisdictions in Ukraine — Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Lugansk, Nikolaev, Odessa, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Chernihiv regions, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the towns of Kiev and Sevastopol. In general, it is unlikely this apparent pre-election move accurately seen as a play on the strengthening of the position of the Russian language in Ukraine, because now he almost lost more than the highest status as the language of international communication. In applied terms "regional status" often does not mean anything at all, since there is no means of local budgets (and in some places, and desire) to strengthen the Russian.

In addition, signing a law that Yanukovich is almost here gave the "back door", instructed the Cabinet to establish a working group to develop the system and making proposals to improve legislation on the use of languages in Ukraine, that, namely, to provide "comprehensive development and functioning Ukrainian language. " The working group, made up largely of representatives pronatsionalisticheskih views, offered the latest version of the law, even the least loyal to the Russian language. Thus, the status of regional languages for minority is provided, are assumed to be only protect them in case if certain areas are more than 30% of such carriers first. The bill also retains the status of the Ukrainian language and municipal contains measures to protect it — namely, the introduction of mandatory language is a municipality in the shipbuilding and record keeping in the activities of the state government, the military, science and education, advertising. In the info and media document establishes the 75 per cent quota of broadcasting (currently — 25%) in the Ukrainian language of the total daily broadcast. All this gave reason to co-author an unusual law of Ukraine "On the Principles of State Language Policy" Vadim Kolesnichenko call the proposed configuration of the bill to the National Fascist ideology. In general we can say that it is unlikely the language issue will be raised in Ukraine in recent years. For all participants in the political process even more convenient to postpone the proper disassembly appropriate option, for example, the presidential election campaign in 2015.

Also from the resonant events of the year in the humanitarian sphere in Ukraine should be noted the introduction of its own in Lviv, structurally different from the all-Ukrainian, books on the history of Ukraine, difficulty rental in Ukraine movie "Match" by Andrew Malyukova about the "death match" with the participation of "Dynamo" ( Kiev) during the Russian war, majestically, the conflict deputy Communist Party of Eugene Tsar'kova with nationalist forces associated with his statement on one of the channels, "Do not you have a lot of the NKVD, Bandera, fired," march in Kiev to mark the 70th anniversary of the creation of the UPA, the most recognized Mass procession in the history of Ukraine's independence. January 1, 2013 in the Ukraine celebrated on a large scale yet another anniversary day or birth favorite OUN, Stepan Bandera. Marches, rallies and other actions to days of birth 'favorite Ukrainian civilization "took place in Kiev, very large quantities — in Galicia, also in Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Kharkov, Poltava, Odessa, Melitopol, Dnipridzerzhinsk, Kirovograd, Sumy, Zhytomyr and other towns of the country.

The main challenges in 2013 for Ukraine

1. Strengthening the confrontation of the "family" of Yanukovych with other oligarchs. In Ukraine, already the de facto campaign was launched in preparation for the presidential elections of 2015, in which "family" strenuously maintain cash and human resources. Naturally, this process meets the misunderstanding and resistance leading tycoons of the country. Not be ruled out open war "family" against some of them, or else completely normal for Ukraine fun — a war of all against all.

2. Fascization the Verkhovna Rada and the public life of the country. Slightly began its work in the Verkhovna Rada, the representatives of "Freedom" aggressively trying to impose their own rules. Namely, the nationalists are trying to organize a boycott of the Russian language in the walls of Parliament, without giving speak Russian parliamentarians. Most large public events in 2012 — march to mark the 70th anniversary of the creation of the UPA and Bandera's day or birthday — also held nationalists. In the context of a popular destination for political scientists version that plays up the power of "Freedom", that Oleg Tyagnibok became chief rival Yanukovych in the presidential election, one can only imagine another huge radicalization of Ukrainian neo-fascists. In this situation, the party and the Yanukovych team will play harder in the "confrontation" brown danger and the "balance of interests" in the community, and by 2015, Yanukovych risks come not only with a zero, and on the anti-rating. And the prospect of repeating the fate of the Weimar Republic may be compounded by widespread riots and acts of territorial disintegration of Ukraine.

3. The end of "multi-vector" and the end of Ukraine. In 2013, at a theoretical level, may be signed by an association agreement between Ukraine and EU. Also Kiev and Brussels have outlined the following measures: meeting of the Ukraine-EU Cooperation, EU-Ukraine summit, the summit of "Eastern Partnership". Ukrainian Prime Minister has already said he will personally coordinate the implementation of the plan on "European integration" and work in this direction should be "very substantive, effective and accountable." On the other hand, the salting of the Russian Federation to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov in late December, said the decision on cooperation in the direction of Ukraine-TC to take over the coming six months. Accordingly, in 2013 Kiev will have to determine exactly with the foreign policy choices and whatever that decision may be, dissatisfied in any case there is half of the country (which will only aggravate the split line of the East-West Ukraine). Well, ready to withstand the press outside Kiev "loser" partner — also a big issue. So makarom end "multi-vector" could be the end of Ukraine in its present form, but the continuation of this policy is fraught with an explosion from the inside. In this regard, the federalization of Ukraine — the idea that the banner in 2004 were self Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions — would make the process of disintegration of Ukraine on very Myagenko scenario. But, of course, that Yanukovych and Regions otvazhutsya not take that step in any case.

4. The growing socio-economic crisis. The global economic crisis and a corresponding drop in industrial production in Ukraine, the absence of ready to come to the aid of the creditors, the impact of the Euro 2012 and the election of populist social policies, the gradual closure of markets of the Customs Union and the conflict with the WTO, the serious debt and languid gas contracts — this is far from complete list of causes that produce that in terms of economy of Ukraine will have a very hard year. Beginning of the year it only confirms — not yet managed to finish Christmas Happy holiday, both in the Lugansk region of Ukraine rioting miners occupied the company's office in order to cancel the order for the reorganization. "Where are you going to do with 10's of thousands of people who may be left without means of livelihood? Maybe you have alr
eady prepared for us crematorium, and left to drive us to the concentration camps?" — Ask the miners. On the same day in Kharkov started weekly protest-independent railway unions of Ukraine. Experts right they say that in 2013 in the east of Ukraine social explosion can occur, despite the fact that in the west of the country the situation is not entirely rosy.

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