Ukraine — why wait for her next?

Ukraine - what she expect next?

The Minister of Foreign Affairs K.Gryshchenko program article published in the "Mirror of the week", which attempted to re-think the foreign policy of the country has not changed since independence. It expressed confidence that the Ukrainian government will not be a member of the European Union. Despite the failure of the policy of European integration, which, according to the ruling circles, has been a priority, it has been suggested that in the future Ukraine will not focus on Poland, and Turkey (which is already about 30 years old can not be a member of the EU, but as convincing Grishchenko successfully constructing Europe inside the country).

Brand new foreign policy for some unknown reason, called measured. During its realization country should withdraw from the multi-vector policy and become a connecting link between Russia and the West.

Minister paid great attention to the dilemma of modernization, but did not specify where the funds should be taken to carry it out, as or International Monetary Fund, nor how much more our home finance reconstruction of Ukrainian economic system does not want. In such a situation the only hope — on internal resources, because the foreign policy of the country will determine the interests of the public business.
Ukrainian government is trying to work out the newest line of conduct in a situation where the EU does not accept, and the Customs Alliance Ukraine does not want to because of the loss-making criterion. Europe stopped the signing of association agreements and visa facilitation. The inhabitants of the country have acquired additional challenges in obtaining Schengen visas. Formally called the prerequisite of their court cases against Tymoshenko and Lutsenko. In fact, the European Union at this step can not allow for an extension, as an economy that is not in the best condition.

It would seem that there is nothing shocking in the fact that Ukraine was denied membership: Kiev in this case should not go to the one-sided concessions to Brussels, but the Ukrainian oligarchs are thinking differently. Wanting to keep the markets and accounts in European banks, the coming president with his entourage must talk incessantly about European integration.

The ruling elite in the country suggests that further work will be managed by the geopolitical interests of the state manufacturers. But it is the same promise and prior to entering the WTO, then the Ukrainian agro-industrial complex has actually become incapacitated, and because Ukraine is the third country in the world in the middle of a more promising in the criteria for a possible food crisis.

In relations with the Russian Federation is also not expect anything decent. Our homeland, as before will put pressure on Ukraine in the trading and gas sector. Because built into the Customs Alliance does not want to, and give their attention to the markets of Near East, India and Asia. But you need to have a competitive product, even though agricultural products and implements. At present, Ukraine will inevitably lose markets of Syria, Iran and Libya. And the chance to increase the potential of Ukraine is actually not as an export market instruments already lost. Regarding the agricultural sector should be noted that without a global government modernization of all dreams to reincarnate the bread basket of Europe and will remain dreams.

Because all the more often in such situations the municipal elite look forward to China, which managed to accumulate significant cash resources and which searches, where they can invest. In this respect, Ukraine is not an exception. But there is a real threat to the country to be reincarnated into a raw material appendage of the Chinese country, which does not shrink from any means of economic colonization, right up to the monetary expansion.

To Ukraine fell into the sphere of influence of China, the Government of the latter uses a variety of scenarios. According to professionals, Ukrainian bureaucrats actually always agree on any terms, so Makarov, his hands turning the country into an appendage of China, from which to draw resources. For example, if in 2000, Ukrainian exports to the Middle Kingdom was about 630 million dollars, exceeding China's exports to 5 times, then in 2010, these characteristics are reversed. Chinese exports to 3.5 times higher than Ukrainian (4.7 billion vs. 1.3). So Makar, for 10 years Chinese exports to Ukraine increased by 36 times, while Ukrainian in China — only 2 times.

For the period from January to July 2011, Ukrainian exports to China was 1.1 billion dollars, with 900 million of them made minerals, and only 200 million was finished goods. China's exports at the same time was equal 3.25 billion dollars, of which only 10 million dollars accounted for mineral resources, and the main part — the finished products: industrial equipment, machinery, automotive electronics, home appliances and electronics, food, and household chemicals , Something to Wear and shoes.

So Makar, only 7 months of last year the negative balance of foreign trade of Ukraine's relations with China amounted to more than two billion dollars. In such a situation, Ukraine really risking reincarnated only a raw materials appendage in which products will be sold in China, while at inflated prices. In this regard, Ukraine can brag much the best positions on the relationship with Russia, of which imports gas and oil.

Apart from the industrial raw materials, Ukraine is an important adjunct mental Middle Kingdom, because it provides virtually free of long-standing military and scientific and technological output. While the Ukrainian elite uses them solely as a product for sale, the Chinese side highly appreciates and bring them "to mind." Not so long ago, it was reported the development of a joint Ukrainian-Chinese Paton Welding Institute. This development was entirely predictable, since most of its employees have long been "moonlighting" in China commonplace shift method. Development of Ukrainian scientists in the field of military technology, astronautics, aviation, engineering and chemistry find their realization in China, as in Ukraine, they do not need anyone. Moreover, there is even information that is not counting the official cooperation between Ukraine and China in the military-industrial sphere, the Chinese side in particular the participation of Ukrainian companies for a small clearance time was able to make the creation of ground-launched cruise missiles and air-based, start-up equipment for rockets, fuel also deployed a system gallakticheskoy intelligence and missile guidance.

In such criteria Ukrainian bureaucrats do not stop to enter unprofitable and weird deal with China, even with the assistance of related loans.
Another obvious threat to Ukraine — a Chinese mining equipment supplies at low prices. In this case, Ukrainian production, scientific and technical potential will be destroyed, and Ukraine will depend on Chinese supplies of equipment and devices to it. Besides, who can guarantee that China is not in such a situation would raise its price and take control over the Ukrainian raw materials industry? The danger for Ukrainian industrial complex are also plans to make in Ukraine Chinese industrial enterprises, which inevitably lead to the demise of Russian origin. But the biggest danger comes from a strong intrigued by the Chinese side in the Ukrainian earth resources, especially when taking into account the plans of Ukrainian officials to sell

In the middle of the last stands of unsafe actions possibility of transferring Ukrainian city of coal power plants with the introduction of China's investment. A similar statement was not so long ago did toplivenergo Minister Yuriy Boyko. According to him, the transition from gas to coal will allow to save about 6 billion cubic meters of gas per year, which, in turn, will reduce Ukraine's dependence on Russian gas supplies and make better the balance of payments. In general, according to professionals, the idea is good, if not its focus on the Middle Kingdom.

At this time a realistic assessment of the volume of investment is not probable, because the territory of Ukraine there are several thermal power station, with any of them has its own power, design features and the degree of wear and tear. Experts refer to the amount of billions of dollars. In addition, such a transition can be a precursor of environmental problems as well as the use of coal will be emitted into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases, and it will cause dissatisfaction euro society.

In response to such warnings Boyko said that will involve environmentally unblemished leading burning technologies that are available in China, and that China will supply Ukraine.

But at the same time, specialists with a huge grain of salt relate to allegations of Chinese environmental technologies as well as around the world it is clear that the Chinese industry — one of the most polluted in the world. So Makar, implementation by Ukraine of Chinese equipment and technology can run into resistance in Europe, which instantly put forward claims for the protection of the environment. In addition, the transition from gas to coal and seriously concerned about Ukrainian industrialists, environmentalists also one glosses say government forever lose the funding foreseen under the Kyoto Protocol.

Hope Ukrainian authorities on Chinese investments are based on the fact that in 2010 the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine headed for municipal agreements with the Chinese Development Bank about providing tranche of $ 1 billion dollars for small percentages for 15 years. It should be noted that China has allocated funds for the modernization of the mines, and not at the power plant. But at the time when they were enacted to lease fuel and energy facilities, promising mines in the main its own weight into the hands of the oligarchs. So Makar, the Chinese had nothing to offer. Yet, the Chinese are not very upset, since their main goal was to not upgrade mines, and profitable investment for themselves criteria.

Fact, it turns out that essentially Chinese investment — is related loans, while with very stringent criteria. According to them, the funds are allocated only to those projects where the general contractor serving the Chinese companies that are not only use their own equipment, and labor, and provide their businesses with orders only. So Makarov, more than half of the loan vorachivaetsya back to China, but to give the full amount plus interest to the Ukrainian side, with China also guarantees requests. Because the Chinese completely there is no difference in what type of project to invest in municipal or private, as in case of problems to repay the loan Ukraine must still answer their assets, whether land, economical means or property.

It is worth noting that the EU has refused verbovaniya Chinese investment, although not to fall under the control of the Chinese. Maybe you should do the same and Ukraine, and turn up more profitable partner, for example Russia?

But at the same time, on the day or there is information that the Ukrainian government is not ready to join the EEC, as the government is not quite savvy as provided by the terms of the public interest of the country. According to President Yanukovych, first, you need to learn how to membership in the EEC can affect the sovereignty of the country, and only later to decide the next steps, namely the holding of a referendum or a change in the Constitution (remember, Ukraine non-aligned government.)

EEC (for those who do not know) — it is a financial international organization, which includes our homeland, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Armenia, Uzbekistan, Moldova and Ukraine play the role of observers. The organization was designed to form a common customs borders of its member states, the construction of a common foreign economic activity, prices and tariffs.

Despite the fact that the issue of EAEC remains in limbo, Yanukovych said that in recent years will be ratified agreement on free trade with the CIS.

Based on the foregoing, the experts they say that the new year will be difficult for the Ukrainian economy, and macroeconomic performance will be worse than the previous years. All of this will depend on a huge number of external and internal factors. The European economic crisis has a significant impact on the Ukrainian economy of the country. Despite assurances by the Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov that in the state there is no economic problems, though there are some difficulties. And the statement that the Ukrainian economy began to rise after the crisis in the not to distant look reveals that this is not entirely true. If you associate the ratings of the country in 2007 and at the present time, and surely it is clear that they have changed for the worse. So, for example, the level of bank structures, Ukraine is the second lowest. In the middle of the positive trends worth noting higher rates of growth of the industry, increasing the bit of municipal investments.

In the conditions of the global economic crisis, the only way to revive the economic sphere is in its start-up, in other words the more developed countries should help the least developed (this, by the way, including Ukraine), and they in turn fall into the debt trap. Such a path has no prospects of development and may be used only in certain situations. In this regard, the Ukrainian government is globally dependent. The government must find methods to increment investment in research and industry innovator, because of their almost everything depends on finding ways out of the crisis.

State Bank of Ukraine published macroeconomic forecast for 2012, according to which the level of GDP is in the range of 4 percent, inflation will be around 8 per cent, the rate of the national currency is measured, and will be held at the level of about 8 hryvnia per dollar, the budget deficit will be 2.5 percent. As if things are not so bad. Then why more than 70 percent of the population lives below the poverty line?

What's all the same for foreign trade, and here is their dimensions. Current world financial situation, the financial and economic crisis, the reduction of production and as a result of rising unemployment, and the continued increase of the shortcomings of payment and trade balances, forces to find new investments to address these phenomena.

Many foreign firms want to invest in the development of entrepreneurship in the Ukrainian countryside, but reforms in the country may reflect badly on the state of the situation in the economic sphere, which is absolutely not profitable for zabugornyh investors. It turns out a vicious circle, and exit is not visible yet.

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