How does the "well-known historian," aims to prove his innocence.
Doctor of Philology, Boris Sokolov made another attempt to "confirm" promoted by them since 1993, the number of demographic losses of the Red Army in the Russian war Lofty (26.9 million people). Now — the drawing up of the balance of the male population over the years 1939-1959 with the assistance of census data in 1939, 1959 and 1979.
Appropriate arguments, Mr. Sokolov laid out in the book "Who fought the war the number, and who — skill. The terrible truth about the losses of the USSR during the second World War "and the article" Victory extracted extremely large blood. " The results of his calculations are presented in Table 1 and Table 2 shows the data of modern demography of male population ages considered the founder in 1939 and 1959.
Please note that the information in Table 1, Mr. Sokolov male population in 1939 at the age of 10-49 years, more than 5 million people exceeds the number of demographers (see Table 2).
This huge discrepancy is explained first statement of Boris Sokolov bolshennom "underestimation" of the male population in the 1939 census. But Professor demographers different view. According to their research the population of the USSR in the 1939 census overstated by 1,7-2,9 million (2, 4, 6).
In the book, devoted to the demography of RF-30's (6), VB Zyromsky summarized the results of the study population census of the USSR at the decade of the last century (including the results of a special international conference on the 1939 census, held in 1994 in Toronto) "… In the true time differences in the assessment of the validity and recognition of the two censuses (1937 and 1939. — VL) Researchers do not, the amendments to the census of 1939 in terms of population is almost the same … "(6).
But maybe Mr. Sokolov there are very strong arguments that indicate that he is right. How annoying would that sounds, it does not not only tangible, and some sensible arguments. Boris Sokolov found "underestimation" of the male population of the USSR at the age of 10-49 years old in the 1939 census (see Table 3), with an emphasis on the conjecture that the ratio of the number of men and ladies of different age groups of the population according to the census in 1939 must meet the relationship the number of men and ladies of the population census or 1959, or 1979 census.
Guess this is ignorant, as based on an extremely lightweight, simple ideas about the factors that affect the sex ratio of the population. According to the views of Mr. Sokolov, gender disparity only cause of war and repression. Because he believed that the sex ratio in the age groups 10-19 and 20-29 years according to the census in 1939 and 1959 has to be, because it is not affected by the war. And because the sex ratio in the age groups 30-39 and 40-49 years according to the census in 1959 had an impact majestic Russian war, the sex ratio in these age groups, according to the census of 1939, Boris Sokolov equates to a sex ratio according to the census of 1979 ( see Table 3).
The fact that certain representations of Mr. Sokolov's wrong, show census data of 1979 and 1989. On the disparity sexes in these age groups, the impact of stateliness Russian war in these censuses are not, and by the logic of Boris Sokolov, the sex ratio in the same age group in the census must be the same. But in reality, there is no match in any age group. It states that, apart from the wars in the sex ratio of the population have a significant impact and other reasons.
The consequences of hunger
Demographers found that the sex ratio in the population of the country is dependent on the cumulative actions of 3 groups of causes: the secondary (under the primary sex ratio is the ratio of the number of male embryos to the number of ladies at fertilization (7) sex ratio: the ratio of boys and beautiful girls in the middle live births), differences in age-specific mortality guys and ladies and sex differences in the intensity of movement (7).
In these age groups, the greatest impact on the sex ratio have differences in age-specific mortality guys and ladies, determined by economic criteria (with the intensification of labor in the middle of the guys mortality increases by more than the middle ladies), social criteria (in the midst of social upheaval guys mortality increases by more than the middle ladies), epidemiological, sanitary criteria and the level of health (epidemics carry more male victims than women's, especially in childhood and adolescence), demographic disasters (wars, famine, increasing mortality in the middle of the guys more than the ladies in the middle).
Table 1. The balance of the male population of the USSR for the years 1939-1959 is estimated Sokolov
|Number p / p||Name of demographic characteristics||The numerical values (millions of people).|
|1||Male population aged 10-49 years in 1939||63.2325|
|2||Male population aged 30-69 years in 1959||32,857 854|
|3||The loss of the male population aged 10-49 years for the period 1939-1959 years||30,374 646|
|4||The number of deaths of boys ages under consideration, but not conscripted||1.1 *|
|5||The number of dead soldiers in the period January 1939 — June 1941||0,174 *|
|6||The balance of the movement of boys ages examined during the years 1939-1959||-0.0501 (-0.237 + 0.0257 0.1612 = -0.0501) *|
|7||The number of boys considered ages who died of "natural" deaths in the period 1939-1959 years||3.0888|
|8||Demographic loss of boys ages considered in the Red Army||26.0621 **|
Fully understood that all of these reasons varied considerably during the Census 1939, 1959 and 1979, because the sex ratio of their in principle there could be similar. In particular warped sex ratio according to the census of 1939 famine broke out in 1932-1933. It affected the sex ratio of the age group.
Those who in 1939 came in the age group of 10-19 years, in 1933 it was a starvation 5-14 years. In this age group, "the boys are more fragile by nature, than girls, had a higher death rate from exhaustion" (6). So, for example, in the USSR in the years 1933-1934 the total age-specific mortality rates were higher than the male population of the respective coefficients of ladies population in these age groups is 15.8 per thousand, while in other years the excess is not as high as 4 ppm.
More from hunger first 30's hit the male population in the age groups 20-29, 30-39 and 40-49 years: the total of their age-specific mortality rates in 1933, 1934, these ratios were above the ladies of the population is 24.6, 24.5 and 39.0 ppm.
Table 2. Estimates of the number of the male population of the USSR in 1939 and 1959
|Number p / p||Name of demographic characteristics||The numerical values (millions of people).|
|Sokolov BV (1)||Andreev, L. Darski, T. Kharkov (ADF) (4)||Gelfand, VS (3)|
|1||Male population aged 10-49 years in 1939||63.2325||58.185||57.4652|
|2||Male population aged 30-69 years in 1959||32,857 854||33.377||32.8578|
|3||The loss of the male population aged 10-49 years for the period 1939-1959 years||30,374 646||24,808||24.6074|
In the 1959 census could not throw a trace famine of 1946-1947, although it is significantly inferior to the scale and effects of the famine of the 30s. In the Russian Federation in the age group 10-19 years (1947 — 0-9 years) the total age-specific mortality rates of the male population in 1946-1947 were higher than the respective coefficients of ladies population only 6.4 per thousand, and in the age group of 20 — 29 years — 3.8 ppm. Age-specific mortality rates in 1979 to those of the male population groups, which were compared with Boris Sokolov age groups 30-39 and 40-49 years, according to the census of 1939, accounted for 13.8 and 21.8 ppm.
Estimates of absolute numbers of male mortality show that the 1932-1933 famine in the USSR increment in the census of 1939 the imbalance of military age equality in more than one million people compared with a sex ratio of the respective ages of 1959 and 1979. Since the effects of famine of the early 30's, similar to those considered were also in the Ukraine and Kazakhstan, for the entire USSR famine gender disparity increment of about 1.7 million people, which actually coincides with that found by Boris Sokolov "underestimation" of the male population census 1939 (see Table 3). It should also be noted that apart from the increase in male mortality rates of hunger in the 30s had caused economic and social configuration resulting from the country's industrialization and collectivization of agriculture.
So Makar, gender imbalance in the census of 1939, a total of "undercounting" military age men, according to Mr. Sokolov, a consequence priemuschestvenno famine of 1932-1933.
Determined to put it mildly, incorrect
Now about the "amendment" to the ladies of the population undercount in the Muslim regions of the country (778.2 thousand). This is a general kind of awkward, stunning designs, nothing to do with the reality of not having. For some reason Boris Sokolov submitted that in the 1939 census in Muslim regions of the country at all ages from 10 to 49 years old male superiority "was formed due to a significant underestimation of the population ladies' (1). This means that, on the proposal of Mr. Sokolov, the number of men's and ladies' population in the Muslim regions of the aged 10-49 years should be similar.
But this is an absurd idea. It's like, what to consider guys and ladies anatomically very similar. In fact male preponderance natural for these ages in all Muslim countries and regions (well, not only in them). In this case, there is male predominance persists until the age of 65, and in states located in the Arabian Peninsula, with strong traditions of Islam (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Oman, Bahrain) — in all age groups (8). The main reason for this trend — extant downplaying the role and position of women in family and society. Ladies in Muslim countries and regions are usually the least educated and live in a more languid socio-economic criteria, and their mortality rate is higher. In Muslim families birth devchenok least be desired than the birth of boys. Since the 30s of last century, the Caucasus and Central Asia has been a strong tradition of Islam, in these regions, there was a greater preponderance of men in these age groups than in the other regions of the USSR.
Table 3. The results of counting B. Sokolov "undercount" of the male population at the 1939 census
|The male population at the 1939 census||What, by guessing Sokolov BV, must be equal to the sex ratio of the 1939 census||Calculations B. Sokolov "undercount" of the male population in the 1939 census|
|Age groups||The number of (people)||As% of the male population of the respective age group for the 1939 census||The number of "undercount" (thousand).|
|10-19 years||18691362||Sex ratio in the age group 10-19 years, according to the Census 1959||3.28||604.4 (1)|
|20-29 years||15033500||Sex ratio in the age group of 20-29 years, according to the Census 1959||2.52||1293.7 * (1)|
|30-39 years||12351640||Sex ratio in the age group 30-39 years, according to the Census 1979||3.10||382.9 (1)|
|40-49 years||7058239||Sex ratio in the age group of 10-39 years, according to the Census 1979||5.29||373.4 (1)|
|In total||2654.4 +778,2-492,6 = 2940.0|
Thus, the number of "undercounting" of the male population of the USSR at the 1939 census false. They are fabricated on the basis of Boris Sokolov simple that have no relationship to reality perceptions of the sex ratio in the population of the USSR.
So Makar, the balance of Mr. Sokolov (see Table 1), the number of males aged 10-49 years in 1939 to be reduced to 3322.2 thousand people (2940.0 thousand people + 389.2 thousand people — extrapolation of the "undercount" on population annexed to the Soviet Union in 1939-1940 territories (1) — 59.9033 million. In addition, the available estimates of population connected to the USSR in 1939-1940 territories (17-23 million people) Sokolov BV has chosen the highest (23 million), while receiving all of the number of men of military age in these areas equal 7002.6 thousand people. When using the full range of population estimates attached to the USSR in 1939-1940, the number of areas of military age men in these areas will be 5175,8-7002,6 thousand people. Then in the balance Boris Sokolov number of the male population of the USSR at the age of 10-49 years old in 1939 should be reduced to 58,1-59,9 million.
Other components of the balance of Mr. Sokolov also defined, to put it mildly, incorrect.
As a result, a rather crude way of counting (by an average death rates) and additional manipulation he got the figure 3088.8 thousand victims of "natural" deaths for the period 1939-1959's boys ages 10-49 years old for the 1939 census (1). Meanwhile, the results of other research studies (4, 3), acquired a much more precise way — by the way-side moves age, only in peacetime, from 1946 to 1959 year the number of deaths of those guys who in 1939 celebrated its 10-49 years ranged from 4268.8 thousand people (3) to 4750 thousands of people (4). Given the "natural" deaths of boys ages examined in 1939-1945 (3408 people (4) that the total number of deaths in 1939-1958-m "natural" deaths of boys, which according to the census of 1939 was 10-49 years ranges from 7.7 to 8.1 million people, in other words, to 4.6-5.1 million more than the "counted" Boris Sokolov.
No way 27 million
Understated Mr. Sokolov and the number of those killed in the war guys considering the age of the numbers are not served in the military, and the balance male movement. Shred the dead guys military age who has not, for various reasons in the Armed Forces of the USSR in the Russian majestically, with total losses of civilian population 14,5-17,9 million (2) was about 40 percent, in other words 5,8-7 , 2 million people. In the balance of movement of the male population ages considered Boris Sokolov did not consider the remaining Russian prisoners of war in the West (200 thousand) and the guys deported to Germany (100-200 million).
In addition, Sokolov BV very understated the number of emigrants ages of boys examined in the post-war period (237 million out of a total movement of the outer 1.4 million (1). Total outside migration from the Soviet Union in 1945-1949 (due priemuschestvenno population exchange between the Soviet Union and other countries in the new boundaries) is estimated by demographers in more massive scale — 3-5.5 million (9). At the same time the number of expatriate men ages was considered more than 1 million people. overall balance of movement of military guys age in the years 1939-1959 was more than 1.5 million people., in turn AG Vishnevsky and JA Zayonchkovskaya cause such number of movement outside of the Soviet Union in 1939 and 1948 — 10.8 million people (10) .
With these adjustments the final figure of demographic losses of boys ages considered in the Red Army (see the last line of Table 1) must be reduced to values 8,4-11,0 million.
The above confirmation completely refute impressively defended Boris Sokolov conclusions about the demographic losses of the Red Army — 26.9 million people. By the way, he "counted" their way completely inapplicable for the determination of human losses on the Soviet-German front, because of its extra, ineradicable fundamentally methodological errors. But that's another topic.
1. Sokolov BV "Who fought the war the number, and who — skill. The terrible truth about the losses of the USSR during the second world. " M., "Jauza-Press", 2011
2. Rybakovsky LL "Human loss of the USSR and Russia in the Russian majestically war." Moscow, Russian Academy of Sciences, 2001
3. Gelfand vs "The population of the USSR for 50 years (1941-1990): Statistical Handbook." Perm, Perm publ. University Press, 1992
4. EM Andreev, Darski LE, Kharkov TL "The population of the Union of Russian 1922 -1991 years.". "Nauka, 1993
5. "All-Union census Population in 1939: main results. " "Nauka", 1992
6. Zyromsky VB "Demographic history of in the 1930s. Gaze into the unknown. " Moscow, "Russian Political Encyclopedia" (ROSSPEN), 2001
7. Medkov VM "Demography" (textbook). M., "INFRA-M", 2008
8. whoyougle.ru / place / statistics / sex-ratio
9. "Peoples of Russia" (encyclopedia). M., scientific publishing "Big Russian Encyclopedia", 1994
10. Wisniewski, A., J. Zayonchkovskaya "Waves of migration." "Free Thought», № 12, 1992