Why is the reaction to the speech of small traders in Bruzgi was much tougher than in the recent rally "Stop Petrol" in Minsk? Why Alexander Lukashenko hit protesters in Bruzgi, accusing her opposition? Or be pulled on the chain of popular protests?
These issues are in the "examination of Freedom" discuss Grodno publicist Vladimir Khilmanovich and political scientist Yuri Chausov.
Drakakhrust: Two such actions, and two quite different reactions. In Minsk, the overlap of the prospectus by motorists was not stopped, and the next day went to the supreme authority unprecedented concessions. In Bruzgi at the border after a brief meeting with the people who blocked the border crossing, they were thrown into riot, chairman of the executive committee Shapiro then hinted at a desire of people to consciously commit violence. Why such different reactions?
Chausov: The reaction is similar in some ways, as the administrative punishment was in fact, and in another case not involving deprivation of liberty — they were fined. Indeed, it seems to me that it is impossible to put these events in a row: the action "Stop Fuel-4" was a continuation of many years of community activists who pay attention to the problem of inadequate price increases for gasoline, and now this problem has got into the focus of public attention . And there was a spontaneous protest Bruzgi, nobody imminent. I would say that the events in Bruzgi current regime should be regarded as the more disturbing because of Grodno, other regions have been increasing signal is unprepared for such stocks, which are difficult to fight against what may become of focal point, and then maybe do what something massive shock.
Khilmanovich: The difference is that the civil solidarity in the capital, in my opinion, is much higher, and so the authorities have simply decided thus to suppress the conflict, because they were afraid of even greater magnitude of the protest mood drivers. In regions such solidarity is still at a low level, so the order was, apparently, from the center, brutally suppressed, and it was backed by concrete actions and threats that were heard at the last meeting in Grodno Oblast Executive Committee.
Drakakhrust: Semyon Shapiro hint at any conscious intent to commit continued unrest found in the statements of Alexander Lukashenko, which he made during a trip to Minsk region. He, in particular, said: "We have a" conscious "in Minsk, social networks on the Internet calling for a strike, strike at the border to suit you. So I'll watch, observe, and then as sharahnu so do not have time for a run across the border." As for the protesters in Bruzgi he said: "Spend it strikes, they were not allowed to take out dirt-cheap fuel, cigarettes and other goods. Previously, these were called speculators. They have and speculators. This — the so-called market economy. Nowhere is this not, and we have implanted this market. Am I going to look at it? "What do these statements?
Khilmanovich: This is the traditional policy of the head of state: turn everything upside down and demonize any protest, give it a political color: instill this "conscious" as it is disparagingly referred to, other categories of active citizens. I do not know how it is calculated from the economic point of view, because these people have imported a lot of currency in the Republic of Belarus, and if the flow is reduced — hardly counted here to the end. But I think that here we have to speak about the use of the whip and a carrot — maybe there will be some benefits, it will be unscrewed in the decision to "shuttle" Living with the border.
Chausov: I think it is a conscious propaganda move: on the one hand, Lukashenko is once again trying to use his image as a strong leader who controls the situation in the country, as if the border unrest, he must show his strength. On the other hand, I think that there are more subtle game: trying to throw all the possible socio-economic protests that begin in Belarus kropakava uzgaratstsa, hue oppositional political project. Accordingly, it may deter people from participating in such actions. Square on December 19 was a factor of intimidation of people: they are afraid to engage in actions with a clear political tinge, but until recently, non-political kind of spontaneous actions do not give rise in people feeling that it could have negative consequences, saying that this is not a policy, we require salaries, previously promised economic preferences. Thus Lukashenko is trying to temper the heat of the socio-economic protest.
Drakakhrust: What did impress Grodno behavior in this situation, Chairman Executive Committee Semyon Shapiro? Went to talk, then used force, then invited entrepreneurs to conversation, which explained his actions. Or has not appeared in Belarus new policies?
Khilmanovich: Communities and merchants dominated by skepticism, and I see the faces of people gzhtyh, risen again after this meeting. But the level of social solidarity among this group is quite low, and I was most surprised that during the meeting, virtually none of the frontier entrepreneurs did not ask the question: what has happened to their fellow-sufferers, who had been arrested the day before? And so there should be anticipated in the near future some benefits for crossing the border, the restrictions will be reduced, and the authority will try to meet some needs of this social group. I think that local authorities will contact the center to somehow this situation liberalize.
Drakakhrust: "Stop Petrol" in Minsk, the blocking of border crossing "Bruzgi" — will continue this chain of popular protests? Or action that makes the power — a combination of carrots and sticks that can bring down this wave?
Khilmanovich: I believe that more swings the whip, and I think that the calculation of the authorities to the experience if they were able to suppress the protest of entrepreneurs in Grodno in 2004, when he was imprisoned in jail leader of the local entrepreneurs Levaneuski, Vasillev, and then managed to knock down protests of local entrepreneurs. I think that the authorities are trying to repeat that scenario.
Chausov: All the cases that receive considerable attention, the state propaganda will attempt to use to their advantage to explain his failed policies. I think that soon we will meet in the state newspapers articles about the losses of Belarus is unauthorized border trade, which is to samrech drobyazzyu across national economy.
With regard to public policy in relation to these spontaneous protests, it will be more refined. I can see it not only in cases of Bruzgi, but also of those cases, which are fixed in Minsk, in the regions. The authorities are not set at the moment of ill-suppression, on Bloody Sunday, the violent beating of the strikers. Rather, there is a strengthening of ideological vertical pumping of the ideologues of propaganda material, and in certain cases the function of ideology begin to perform more sophisticated security services.
And soon, the authorities were waiting. Once these protesters will be leaders such as those leaders of the strike committee, which formed in Belarus in the early 90s, during those strikes, the response to them will be very tough, comparable with the response to the political protesters. Now the authorities are preparing for these future leaders of the protests, which undoubtedly will be, as the deterioration of the economic situation, because you need some time to get this situation affected the mood of the people.
Now while we have just entered a period of impoverishment, people still have savings, there is a feeling that perhaps all will be corrected, and if the fall is dotyanet, you would see these leaders. The authorities are now beating up on free media, on social networks, according to the means of communication that will allow people to find out what's really going on. Ideally, by the fall in Belarus in terms of power should be a system that has been in Uzbekistan during the events in Andijan. If you break out a region, it is necessary to provide total information isolation of what is happening there.