An alternative to devaluation, one scenario is bad, the second — even worse

The National Bank of Belarus forecasts lower fluctuations of the Belarusian ruble against foreign currencies. According to the National Bank, the OTC market during the last week the average rate remained in the range 3700-3850 rubles to the dollar, which, according to government economists, suggests: the situation will soon stabilize. Independent experts believe that without concrete steps to stop the chaos in the foreign exchange market is impossible.
Economist Sergei Balykin recalls that the authorities did not formally agree to the devaluation, but other scenarios can not be better:

"There are two scenarios, worse devaluation. Firstly, mnozhnasts courses. One — the so-called public on the official stock exchange, and the other — the" gray "," black. "How bad is it? But that exporters will be forced to sell the currency at a low course, this is actually an additional tax on exports. When something is sold for less, then it can be considered as an additional tax, and it will only deter our exports. We have to raise the price of exports and resulting product will lose competitiveness.
And then there's the worst case scenario, when the rate will keep administrative — there will be no two or three courses, and will be what we have now. This is the worst case scenario, but that will supposedly "order" can be raise the standards of sales of foreign currency, but you can prevent a currency to keep the public. That's a bad option. "
The National Bank continues to have high hopes for the Russian stabilization loan of $ 1 billion. Negotiations to get it, being a long time, but without much result — even Russia requires thorough exchange of structural changes in the financial sector.
However, according to economist Victor Tereshchenko, any credit in the current situation will be "eaten" in the blink of an eye. Finally lost the confidence of the Belarusian ruble, people will wipe currency as long as its not forbid. However, according to recent statements by the representatives of the National Bank, in any lending money exchangers will not go, and will be immediately sent to the support of international reserves of the state.
Mr. Tereshchenko confident that the country does not need to rely on external debt, and finally learn how to sell their products and thus earn foreign currency. In the meantime, get rare Belarusian goods abroad only under the terms of dumping:

"I always emphasize why our refrigerator" Atlas "today in Russia at 10-15% cheaper than in Belarus? How wisely it can be understood? And because dumping is applied — if only to sell, just to zbagryts. Why in stock Moscow MTZ is worth less than the domestic market in Belarus? For the same reason why our tractors, cars, even within the same Lithuania deshaveyshyya than us? Since it all mean?
But the fact that the price structure — a huge number of losses: this squalid farm "Path to Communism," which hangs in the ballast value of the product specific company, this huge amount of credits that should be given, with interest. And all of this is hammered into the price of products. How could she then be competitive? So apply dumping — if only to sell. "
Mnozhnasts courses as non-cash and the cash currency market has led to undesirable consequences. Having lost access to hard currency, importers have reduced or stopped the shipment of certain products from abroad, including components for enterprises. New consignments are usually much more expensive than before the crisis. According to some reports, in connection with the forced curtailment of activity without a permanent job were more than a million people — is twice that stated the National Statistics Committee.
Meanwhile, Deputy Minister of Trade Alexander Zabello said through official media that on any products — both food and non-food — deficit in Belarus. On He said, Belarusian market importers provide the same range as before.
Analysts note: the worse the economic situation, the less said about that the official propaganda. In the Presidential Press Day "Sovetskaya Belorussia" mentions only that nevtralizavany another currency dealers, who in the situation created by the very same state, the channel has established buying and selling currencies. The same "egregious case" tell BT channels. However, there is no analysis of how much more the government will continue this economic experiment.
Meanwhile, formally the National Bank continued to "strengthen" the ruble's official exchange rate for May 6 — 3001 rubles per dollar. But to buy the currency at such a rate in any ordinary citizen Belarusian bank impossible.

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