Many government and commercial companies suspend operations in an environment where there is no currency to buy goods and components for production. Employees sent on forced leave. Meanwhile, disappears from the shelves products of foreign manufacture, and if it is, almost double the price. Government officials in this state that can not affect the policy of the National Bank.
After the abolition of the National Bank in the early weeks of restrictions on the formation rate on the interbank market clearing greenback jumped to 5,000 rubles. Traders do not bury that nearly 70 percent difference with the official exchange rate will be incorporated in the price of the goods: himself in harm no one is going to trade. But many people in a situation of uncertainty, says a representative of the importer, decided to suspend the activities of all:
"Yes, all staff sent on leave, for how long — it's hard even to say. Elementary Because no means no payroll, no matter what product to buy and sell. Put all worth it, no movement. And that, as far as I know, mass phenomenon equal. "
Most experts believe that even in the apparent stagnation of government stubbornly cling to the declared intention to bring the average salary in the country up to $ 500. Says Fellow banking Ilya Krapivin, another explanation for this behavior is hard to find:
"And I do not see, in fact, the motives for so rested hold this course at this level, in addition to reported about $ 500 paycheck. But for some reason did not say how fast prices are rising. At these prices on products, goods can not only 500, a thousand to draw, but the payment ability of the population to be no.
If you so desire, then make the official rate is not 3100 rubles, and in 1500, then you can poke a person — so you have the same salary of one thousand dollars! And even better — one to one, and then do a million dollars, although the rate of the National Bank. Absolutely unhealthy distortions. I think people simply can not take any unpopular decisions on their own and need go-ahead from someone you know. "
The fact that the solution to drastic measures to give directly to Alexander Lukashenko, confirmed by officials of different ranks. In particular, the heads of the Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance and other departments have repeatedly said that the ruble to devalue, but it clarified that can not violate the prerogative of the National Bank.
Says Economist Goncharik, in any other country of similar events that gave rise to the paralysis of the economy, would lead to the immediate resignation of the government and the leadership of the Central Bank:
"For Belarus it is exactly the time when economic reforms which, of course, necessary and long overdue reforms dictate mandatory policy. After experiencing a rapid pullback in all respects."
Reporter: "Lukashenko two weeks ago, promised that the stabilization will come in a matter of days. Interested people: so where is she?".
"First of all, some days it can be done physically, especially if going to collapse for years. Secondly, I think that all measures will be more administrative plan, not an economic one. Yard — on the course content at all costs, unfortunately, more expensive for the people. So it is quite populist measures that have nothing to do with the crisis. I see the same in regard to the government: if there is any offer, then do so as not to rebuild anything fundamentally " .
At least in the near future and no surgery is anticipated. According to the National Bank set the official exchange rate on April 30, 3013 $ 1 worth of Belarusian rubles.
Meanwhile state and commercial banks are scaling whole areas of activity. Declared by some institutions limits for operations with plastic cards reach the point of absurdity — 1-1.5 dollars a day. Most banks announced a moratorium on the issuance of loans — primarily consumer on housing construction and purchase of vehicles.
Buy cash currency in exchange offices is impossible for almost two months. At the same value of the dollar on the black market has long exceeded 4000 rubles. And if you sell the currency — not a problem, it is difficult to buy even at speculative prices.