On the difficult situation in which there was the Belarusian economy, says Edward Steiner in the German newspaper Die Welt.
She has broken down. In mid-April, a bomb exploded in the subway in Minsk. 13 people were killed. And just two days thereafter Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko not only announced the arrest of alleged bombers, but also took the opportunity to announce two of the ban.
Anyone who would spread rumors about the motives of the explosion will be punished, the president, who has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1994.
And anyone who questions the food supply, says meager foreign exchange reserves of the country or even in some other way wreaking economic havoc, will also be subject to criminal liability. After all, in the end, the bomb attack was aimed at undermining the country's stability.
"There is no more foreign currency," — said Leonid Zaika, director of the Center for Economic Analysis Ming "Strategy". Since January, foreign exchange reserves fell by a quarter and now stands at more than four billion dollars (2.74 billion euros). In March alone, the population has bought 768 million dollars.
However, the state attempted to artificially prop up the ruble and limit the purchase of foreign currency. But it has caused even more panic. As a result, the ruble was devalued. Consequences: companies that import goods from abroad, and now can not actually pay for them. Some products have disappeared from the shops.
The black market is much lower than the official rate of 3,044 rubles per dollar. As recently stated Lukashenko if legalized chornarynkavy on interbank exchange rate and companies, the official exchange rate would fall immediately to 5,000 rubles per dollar. The inevitable further devaluation of the ruble — is a strong blow to Lukashenko, as he promised the people a doubling of monthly income to $ 1,000 by 2015. (…)
The State need money from outside. From the International Monetary Fund, which is listed after the crisis has $ 3.6 billion, the wait is not worth the money — it Lukashenko would have to start reforms and, for example, to reduce the salaries of state employees.
European Union before the election promised three billion euros. But after the election of Lukashenko violently suppressed the protests, and now the EU are planning to give him financial support. Russia remains. She asked Lukashenko three billion dollars. Moscow would give money, but only if Belarus privatized state enterprises. Moreover, with the condition that the most profitable companies she would be happy to buy myself. That is why Lukashenko and then distracts this issue.
Because of the terrible economic situation, Moscow can now play for a while and bring down the price of your desired plants.
"Lukashenko is beginning to understand that their removal from the West, he resigned himself to the fact that the terms of the Kremlin" — said Stanislav Bogdanovich, former head of the Belarusian central bank.
Zaika is convinced that Russia will soon give Belarus a loan. But to call the final sale of public enterprises privatization language does not turn. On actually it will be a normal redistribution — among the most influential in Belarus and Russia. Cake will simply divided between government agencies, security agencies and criminal organizations.