Ferghana valley: writes about the South American Colonel

On the South American website eurasianet.org, relevant to Mr. Soros, an article appeared in the days of Joshua Kucera (Washington), a commentary on the report of the Colonel of the Military Institute of the U.S. Army Ted Donnelly. Report Military devoted probable development of the situation in the Ferghana valley, after U.S. and NATO troops will be withdrawn from Afghanistan. Recognizable analyst Alexander Shustov, analyzing the text of the report and comment on it, concluded: To leave Afghanistan, the Americans are not going well, however, expect to gain a foothold there forever.

Ferghana Valley: writes about American colonel

In addition, the publication of the report Donnelly, and along with extensive commentary Washington journalist, analyst put things on a number of other thoughts. In addition to the continued presence in Afghanistan, the U.S. may want to open a military base in Uzbekistan country that will work, for example, "under the roof" of the Transit Center: it plans to locate in the countries of Central Asia, SWAT teams, which should focus on the safety of the NDN , U.S. officials said more than three years ago — in September 2009. At the same time the "program" in the Ferghana valley will be one of the keys to destabilize the region, as well as it should, and Russia. (Nepoprostu, add, in the journal «Turkish Weekly» expressed judgments about the fact that, according to the views of Western military professionals, Moscow expanded its programs from electronic surveillance just in the Fergana valley). Alexander Shustov therefore believes that the steps taken by Russia to maintain and strengthen their own military presence in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan look at this background, totally unnecessary.

Let us turn to the report of Mr. Donnelly.

As is customary with the strategists and tacticians of the United States, the U.S. Armed Forces, Colonel Donnelly says the Fergana plain is about to become a stronghold of terrorists — a similar to how it became Tribal Areas of Pakistan ("FATA"). Having made such a "sharp" the statement, Mr. Donnelly is also urged Washington to intensively develop local security cooperation to protect the region from the threat of terrorism. The goal is very generous and very democratic.

In order not to stagnate on one only American values, Mr. Colonel moved from the spiritual to the real. More precisely, the military and strategic. The report notes:

"The region of Central Asia since 2001, plays an important supporting role in" Operation Enduring Freedom ". But segodnyaschy U.S. military strategy focused on the region only in the context of its operational value in the annex to this operation. The inability to look at the region through the lens of a longer strategic perspective exposes threats process merits of success in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the international coalition forces, reflects badly on the environment of security and stability in the region and increases the ability to re-draw the United States into the affairs of the region, while in the most unwanted conditions . "

And since conditions may arise "undesirable" America should plan one final, which it will be comfortable and profitable. Referring to terrorism, Donnelly finds arguments that extremist groups — such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan — by all means take advantage of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. Americans will leave, and the terrorists instantly gain a foothold in the Ferghana valley: it is for this densely populated area, the boundaries of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Then the colonel drew a parallel with the tribal area of Pakistan, which can completely transform Fergana plain after 2014.

"… Like the Tribal Areas, future Ferghana valley will be a significant largest uncontrolled area, which will serve as a refuge, an incubator and a base for extremist groups and armed militias. IMU and other extremist armed groups will use this sanctuary, as its new rear areas in Afghanistan to build pressure from Islamist rebels in the secular governments of Central Asia. "

America should vigorously oppose this danger. And Donnelly explains how. In general, the proposals do not call certain Colonel.

He states that the Ferghana valley ("strategic center of gravity for the region") should be the central Fri promising strategy, and to stabilize the situation there (referring to the avoidance of any militia activity) — The first task for the United States. The former, he says, and not just part of puzzles regarding areas, "which are placed on our bases and which are our supply corridors."

Colonel offered to provide and the military component of security cooperation. In this context, Donnelly has to be spent on strengthening the borders, and the adoption of protective measures to isolate the plains of militants operating in Afghanistan. It shows on counter-terrorism measures that can address the units specializing in combating militants in the Ferghana valley and surrounding areas. Need also correspond efforts to combat drug trafficking, which will allow to stop the financing channels of extremist groups. At the same time, Colonel writes about the "aftermath of various disasters," perhaps hinting at a possible Russian power plant construction in the region, as we know, does not approve of seismologists from Nevada.

That did not happen, and so the strategy of hostility was not that note, Mr. Donnelly has to connect it to Russia and China.

"… The United States should promote the idea of the connection of the Russian Federation, China, the SCO and the Collective Security Treaty Organization to implement the aforesaid regional strategy …"

In general, U.S. Army colonel — a realist, and the extraordinary help of the Russian Federation does not count. He was even the rumor of a possible "resistance". Yet, the Russian-Chinese approach may be "political, diplomacy and the use of the information."

Kucera journalist, commenting on the report, said that the advice Donnelly would not be realized. Why? The journalist does not explicitly states, but read between the lines: the economic crisis. Obama is in no hurry to climb in Central Asia or in other distant corners of America. The hegemony of hegemony, and 16 with excessive trillion dollars of debt — no joke, whatever they read as specialists from the Federal Reserve and the like would not be stable converted into oil bucks. Kucera writes:

"… I say the turnaround: the development of these programs is the direct consequence of the need for access to Afghanistan. So when the need for it no longer, I suspect, will be phased out and these applets to assist in the security sphere. Overall, the U.S. is less and less willing to participate in any military qualities in remote corners of the world … "

Meanwhile, the danger of extremism in the Ferghana valley journalist shares with Donnelly.

Let us ask the question: why South
American Colonel
Donnelly so concerned about the Ferghana valley, if at the end of 2014 the United States should withdraw its troops from Afghanistan? Why do we talk about the big strategic program notes? Neuzh something so thrilled Colonel activities of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan? Since when are the Americans, the ideologues of the "Arab Spring", fans of the theory of controlled chaos and destabilization fathers, attended Islamism near the border with Russia? Yes, let them, it would seem, is growing!

A. Pasha analyst believes that care about the order in Donnelly plain and local population is in line with anxieties about the U.S. military operation NDN: specifically through her South American forces in Afghanistan get most of the military cargo. The main transit goes through Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the individual operates through Tajikistan.

If a channel is blocked by the Islamists, ISAF in the Hindu Kush will be isolated. That's what worried T. Donnelly. He says Pasha, said as Washington considers Central Asia only as a platform for action in Afghanistan. This is not to mention the fact that the Ferghana valley — the "key" to the whole of Central Asia. Now there are Sughd region of Tajikistan, Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken region of Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbek Andijan, Namangan and Ferghana regions. Together with the lack of water and the highest population density of this area is different and the highest level of Islamization. Almost Ferghana valley — a tinderbox of Central Asia. Bring the only match …

Why did the U.S. should stay in Afghanistan? This is no Kucera, nor Colonel Donnelly did not write. And for good reason. Would have reinforced their suspicions, theses and conclusions of some of my Democratic figures — report and comment would have been clearer.

The fact that this year alone, according to the report of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, on the Afghan fields were collected 3,700,000 tons of opium — raw material for the production of heroin. THREE MILLION SEVEN HUNDRED thousand tons. Compared with 2011, the sown area increased by almost 20% — from 131 thousand to 154 thousand hectares. Now four-fifths of the world's opium poppy crop is removed in Afghanistan.

Leave such plantation South American makoroby not collected. All the more so at a time when the world economic crisis rages. That's what the Yankees need to gain a foothold in the Ferghana valley, ensuring its unchanging transit and marketing of the finished product.

When Col. U.S. military says about efforts to combat drug trafficking, he seemed to hint at a desired monopoly for those who will be engaged in the export of heroin "legal" …

Oleg surveyed Chuvakin
— Especially for topwar.ru

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