In October, Russia was in the list of the few countries (along with China and India, as well as a little reeling from the September decline by Japan), whose manufacturing industry increased its output. And industrial production as a whole, seems to demonstrate a small increase after declining in the previous two months.
Apparently, the main contribution to the fracture trends in the Russian industry in October made food production, based on a fairly rich harvest this year. The growth of gross output of the village for the first nine months, the estimated MED, amounted to almost 16% over the same period of the drought last year. As a consequence, the production of food products in recent months, increasing an average annual rate of 7.5% (seasonally adjusted). Since the contribution of the food industry in the gross value added (GVA) is the industry as a whole is a decent proportion (about 10%), this explains a significant part of the whole, rather modest, but still positive growth in industrial production in October.
In metallurgy, stopped the decline
However, a number of other manufacturing industries also markedly increased release in October. Total growth showed 22 of the 29 we observed industrial activities (with a weight of 37% of GVA of the industry). In some of them there or acceleration of growth, or the transition from the decline in output to increase. The latter include such major sectors as metallurgy and chemical production (weight in the GVA of the industry 7.7 and 3.2%, respectively), as well as coal mining — each of them stopped many months of decline in output. Apparently, this is a consequence of the Chinese animation industry and the increase in export orders.
The continuing decline in production has been concentrated mainly in six activities (with a weight of GVA of the industry for about 26%). This gas production, the production of coke and petroleum products, metal ores, as well as three types of manufacturing industries: woodworking, manufacturing equipment and rolling stock for railways. We can assume that the volumes of gas supplies, diesel and fuel oil, in addition to the European industrial decline, affecting contractual pricing formula for gas, which, given the lag of six to nine months in relation to the price of oil right now should be maximized. This may restrain demand, if not stated a "take or pay" because the price situation is easily calculated importers, adapting it to his schedule of gas injection into storage.