In 2012, the Russian refining industry has set a record in terms of oil refining in the last twenty years, and for the first time in the last five or six years has avoided the traditional autumn crisis in the petrol market — the oil companies have finally taken the burden of the modernization of Soviet oil refinery
Few people remember that at the dawn of the new Russian economy one of the main goals of the appearance of a vertically integrated oil companies (VICs) such as "Lukoil", "Sibneft" and called TNK attract investment in the modernization of oil refineries. But it took a decade before a modernization of at least one of the Russian refineries (the first was the Ryazan refinery, owned by TNK-BP). Ten years it took to process captured the entire industry. There are first results in our country finally done so much high-octane gasoline, and approximately how much you need our market. But two years ago, we have witnessed the rapid growth of the traditional autumn the motor fuel prices, which has repeatedly led to the intervention of the authorities in the work of Russian oil companies.
Total since 2005 in oil invested about $ 1 trillion rubles — this is the price solve the problem, "autumn exacerbations." In this case, the oil companies, with varying degrees of success only managed to pull up their refineries to lower trims global average, and only a few have achieved solid European average. So a major investment in the industry will need to continue — to enhance the technological complexity refinery, increasing the yield of light products and the level of processing, solving the problem of imbalance of selected petroleum products, increased competition in the industry.
Ten years of inactivity
Russian refining industry and is now one of the largest in the world. In terms of total Russian oil refining is among the five world leaders, behind only the United States and China. This place is Russia directly inherited from the former Soviet Union — all of the major oil refineries have been built before 1991. Now the Russian oil refining has more than 30 large-scale plants with the amount of processing more than 1 million tons of oil (see Table 1), and dozens of smaller ones.
If the volume of processed crude oil is among the leaders of Russia, by the structure of production of petroleum products and the technical equipment of factories, our country still lags behind Western countries. According to the company "Alliance Analytics", the output of oil refining in Russia in 2012 amounted to 29% of the volume of refined oil, gasoline — 14.3%, diesel fuel — 27.8%. For comparison, the yield of gasoline in the U.S. is over 46%, diesel fuel — 27%, oil — only 4%. In the EU, the gasoline yield of about 25%, diesel fuel — 44%, oil — 14%.
The fact that the Russian oil refining focuses primarily on the production of fuel oil and diesel fuel with a relatively small output of gasoline fractions, largely due to the Soviet legacy: cheap oil is allowed to produce the most primitive refinery processes without secondary and tertiary processing, which are not particularly required, because the main consumer of motor fuels in the Soviet Union was a cargo transport. His role was played by the geographic distribution of investments in oil in the last decades of Soviet power: almost all the new refinery, with the exception that Achinskogo plant in Krasnoyarsk, were built outside of modern Russia — Lithuania, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the formation of the first vertically integrated oil refinery modernization almost no one did. In particular, in 1990? S basically ended with only those projects that were started in the 1980s. Then there was the modernization of the plant Kirishsky controlled "Surgutneftegaz", a group of Ufa and Moscow Oil Refinery, was under the control of regional authorities.
It was only in the early 2000s, Russian oil companies appeared at least two serious reason to invest in oil — change the structure of domestic demand and the introduction of state-of differentiated export duties on oil and oil products.
Stormy motorization of the country, coupled with the ever-growing number of cars caused a rapid increase in demand for higher-quality gasoline with high octane number. For a long time the only company that responded to the challenge this market was TNK-BP. From 2000 to 2003, it has invested nearly a billion dollars in reconstruction and modernization of the Ryazan refinery owned by it. He became the first oil refinery, which began producing high-grade high-octane fuel, that is, not by overclocking straight-run gasoline additives, and on the basis of cracked gasoline, supplemented alkylated factions.
Most of the other companies focused on other issues. Oil production is a major source of revenue for the budget, which led to the introduction in 1999 of differentiated export duties on oil and oil products. The lowest fees were for oil, and this product has become very interesting for the oil industry as an alternative export commodity. In the future, the ratio of duties on oil and oil changed, but the profitability of exports of fuel oil remained unchanged. After 2005, the volume of primary processing are growing faster than oil production and oil exports began to decline. And this time the "big black oil exports" is still ongoing.
However, despite the fact that the "subsidy" provided a high level of operating profit oil, this has not led to an investment boom in the industry.
Profitable export commodity was and diesel, it, like oil, have started to use in European refineries as a raw material for further processing. However, in order to export the diesel fuel on Russian oil pipelines (see map), it must be pre-cleaned of contaminants, primarily from sulfur. For this reason, oil companies have been forced to massively invest in a relatively simple and inexpensive hydrotreater. For petrol, the investment is limited by the relatively small power plants for the production of additives to increase the octane number of straight-run gasoline. According to the number of realized investment projects (see Table 2) these types of plants a strong lead. Their construction was engaged in most of the oil companies. All this has allowed a relatively quick start producing higher-quality types of gasoline and diesel fuel, but to increase the depth of oil still failed.
Lack of investment in full modernization has led to a paradoxical situation: Increase the amount of processing industry, factories nearer to one hundred percent capacity utilization, but the domestic market is an acute shortage of gasoline.
Modernization on manual control
The main impetus that led to the qualitative growth of investment in the Russian oil refining, was the adoption in 2008 of new technical regulations, according to which Russia should be introduced in European environmental standards for the production of motor fuels. In particular, a few years the country has to stop production of fuels, "Euro-2" and begin the transition to standards "Euro-4" and "Euro-5". In 2011, to better follow the schedule of refinery modernization between the authorities and the oil companies have been concluded so-called four-party agreement governing the size and timing of the input refineries. The focus of the agreements was on a class of fuel, but the depth of oil and light oil products at the refinery each oil company has to determine for itself. Despite some delay in the introduction of the regulations, the flow of investments
in oil for several years has increased multiply. By 2012, the refining industry accounted for almost 20% of total investment in the processing industry of Russia.
At the same time the industry was completed and the consolidation of refining. Before the de facto having multiple shareholders and buying oil from independent suppliers Ufa refineries and the Moscow Oil Refinery came in, respectively, in the "Bashneft" (after its absorption by AFK "System") and "Gazprom oil". The last major event in the market was the acquisition of "Rosneft" TNK-BP, through which the company moved into first place in the volume of oil refining in Russia and has provided itself with a few large and already upgraded refineries in the European part of Russia.
All the major companies — market participants have stated quite ambitious program to modernize refineries. In the case of the amount of their initial processing by the year 2020 will increase to 294 million tons, the output of light oil products will increase from 55 to 72%, and the depth of processing — from 72 to 85%. However, the yield of diesel fuel greatly increase — from 27.8 to 38.1%, while the gasoline — with only 14.3 to 19.0. As a result of changes in output and increase refining will double reduction of oil production, increase gasoline production by 50% and diesel fuel — by 57%.
The bulk of the projects implemented by Russian oil refining companies still focus only on the refinement of fuels. Entering the large catalytic cracking and hydrocracking, aimed at increasing the output of high-quality diesel and gasoline fractions will only begin in 2015.
The competitive environment and competitive strategies
Ironically, despite the increase in the market share-of the largest oil refinery companies, competitive opportunities are not reduced. On the oil market began to leave the small local producers of petroleum products of the South of Russia and Siberia, as a rule to start a business in the mid-1990s as a manufacturer of fuel oil for export (the pioneer here was the Mari refinery, the owners of which were able to gain access to the pipeline system "Transneft"). By the beginning of the 2000s to process more than 1 million tons of oil were able Il'sky, Novoshakhtinsky Antipinsky and refineries. In 2013 launched the first oil refinery in the Kemerovo region. However, due to existing specialization in the production of fuel oil, gasoline and diesel fuel have a significant impact on the market, even at the local level, these companies can not yet. The only major new refinery built by the oil company, has become the plant of "Tatneft" (which had not previously own processing) "Taneco" in Nizhnekamsk. However, at present it is only the primary oil refining, and construction of a deep oil is only planned. Most of the smaller refineries also announced plans to produce gasoline, but so far no project is implemented. So the market impact of motor fuels and oil majors until completely indestructible.
As for the oil majors, they have become more variably. Part of the plants, which are located in the coastal areas and have access to export destinations, tend to increase the treatment capacity and investment in modernization with a focus on diesel fuel conforming to European standards (hydrotreating and hydrocracking). This is logical, because the export gasoline to build a plant here unreasonably expensive: according to the Energy Center "Skolkovo" average Russian refinery because of the worst features access to export channels, and lower quality products lost in the average yield of cracking (petrol) European refineries around $ 83 per ton of production. Therefore, under the modernization of the Russian refinery gasoline needs, that is, construction of catalytic cracking, alkylation, and delayed coking, will be made only in the interior of the country, with a focus on the domestic market. Such modernization of the refinery in Nizhny Novgorod has already completed "LUKoil", it is planned for the Kuibyshev and Syzran Refinery ("Rosneft"), the Omsk Oil Refinery ("Gazprom Neft"), Perm and Volgograd Refinery ("Lukoil").
"Rosneft" prior to the merger with TNK-BP possessed relatively old refinery and later other major oil companies began to engage their modernization. The company is currently implementing two major projects. On the basis of the Tuapse refinery is being built from the ground up a large modern factory. This is the largest project for oil refining in Russia, now accounting for nearly a quarter of all investment in the sector. A core set of production units (hydrocracking, catalytic reforming, hydrotreating and isomerization of fuel), this would be a typical project aimed at exporting diesel fuel. Another project is also aimed at the export of diesel "Rosneft" performs in the Far East, the Komsomolsk refinery. In 2015, after the commissioning of large catalytic cracking Novokuybyshevsk and Syzran, the company will become the absolute leader in the country for the production of high-octane gasoline.
The prices will not grow rapidly, but will not fall
Modernization of Russian refineries, even in a rough, is already bearing fruit. Production of gasoline A-95 and above is growing rapidly, effectively forcing fuel from the legal trade in gasoline lower grades. Finally, the domestic market saturation occurred gasoline, "Euro-3" and above. Interestingly, in the case of implementation of any and all construction projects announced capacity in the country an excess of gasoline, which, unlike diesel, has no export potential, with the possible exception of Kazakhstan. However, if this were to happen, it is only after 2020, so that a radical decrease in the price of gasoline can not wait.
As for the diesel, the refinery modernization program increases the quality, in many cases, it may already be exported directly to consumers, that is, without pre-treatment in local refineries. In particular, according to the EAC "Cortez", the share of diesel fuel with a sulfur content of 0.035% or less increased from 35.5% in 2011 to 50.2% in 2012. That is all the excess diesel fuel will inevitably go for export, without exerting any pressure on domestic prices.
In addition, analysts IAC "Cortez", oil companies to cover the costs, a higher margin. Therefore, investment costs are likely to be a deterrent to reduce the prices of petroleum products. And with the increase in excise duties on July 1 this year for petrol and diesel grades of "Euro-4" and "Euro-5" prices will be maintained at a sufficiently high level to turn in world oil prices.
And this situation will last, probably till 2015, when the government is going to withdraw the export duty on fuel oil on a level with duties on crude oil. Only then will appeal only to the primary refinery refines oil, without the production of high-quality commercial gasoline and diesel fuel will decrease. Only then the front investments in oil from any and all players in the market, including the "Gazprom Neft", "Bashneft", "Surgutneftegas" and "Tatneft", drastically reduce the output of fuel oil and increase the output of motor fuels. And the Russian domestic market of petrol and diesel has a chance to become truly competitive.
1) All Russian refineries:
2) The largest current investment projects in the Russian oil refining
3) Map of the Russian oil refining
4) Major investment in the Russian oil refining planned after 2015.
5) The dynamics of oil refining in Russia:
6) The introduction of technology in comparison to the world:
7) The structure of new capacity:
The shares of oil companies on the Russian market:
9) Dynamics of export of petroleum products: