Moment between past and future

Manufacture of weapons and military equipment to the largest enterprises of the Urals again on the rise. The main growth was achieved at the expense of export contracts, the amount of which, due to increased competition will soon be reduced.

Russian defense industry in 2012 can ship for export of military equipment and weapons (IWT) 13.2 billion, beating the record of 2011 (the result is 10% less), experts predict the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade. This is 19% of the global arms market, and second only to the United States (36.5% of global supply). For the Russian engineering in general, the trend is very positive. And the figures are impressive, especially when you consider that this year for the Russian market were almost lost Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia and part of Syria.

Exports of special products for certain weapons and military equipment manufacturers in the Urals is extremely important. In the past year, most of the largest military-industrial complex in the Greater Urals showed a marked increase in both output and net income. And if the producers managed to keep the artillery strike a balance between internal and external military contracts, the plants of armored vehicles as well as components for aircraft and naval armaments gaining momentum mainly due to exports. Using data on executed, prisoners and planned contracts, we can predict: in the coming years, the situation will continue.

Aviation stability

Financial position of the Ural producers systems and components for the aviation and marine technology today is stable. Ufa Engine software (UMPO) and the Ural Optical and Mechanical Plant (UOMZ) in 2011 slightly increased revenue, but were able to significantly increase its net income: the first — more than twice, the second — by 25%.

While the main UMPO income is mainly due to export sales of weapons. They account, according to our estimates, accounted for about 70% of revenue, while the share of defense contracts — no more than 17%. It is known, for example, that during the year the company has put a number of aircraft engines for the needs of the Indian Air Force and China. Significant changes in the list of products customers UMPO in 2012 is expected. At the same time, the company intends to significantly redistribute shipments. In particular, the proportion of products supplied by the SDO, can reach 30%, while the volume of exports and supplies to military and civilian equipment will drop to 60 — 65%. In this case, the total output is expected to grow by 6.2%. Primarily due to deliveries to the Air Force in 2015, 48 new Russian Su-35 fighters, which prepares UMPO "products 117S" — upgraded engines AL-31F. In addition, by 2015 UMPO will localize the production of most of the components for helicopter engines TV3-117, as well as a new version of the VC-2500, which is placed on the helicopters and Mi24/28 Ka-50/52.

UOMZ also increased the volume of production, but at the cost of products for civilian use. The share of the latter decreased in comparison with 2010 by 7.6% and amounted to 69.5% of total revenue for last year. In 2011, deliveries began in Algeria Su-30MKI (the cost of the contract for two years — $ 1 billion), which produces UOMZ targeting systems and optical-radar station, and partly executed a contract for the delivery of 12 Su-30MK2 (1, 3 billion dollars) for Vietnam. In addition, the Defense Ministry was given the first production Corvette "savvy", which has two small gyrostabilised chamber UOMZ production units that are part of multi-optical-electronic and television complex MTC-201M. In all likelihood, the volumes of production of special products affected the introduction in early 2011, the embargo on military-technical cooperation with Libya: for it was planned to make 12 — 15 Su-35 fighters. UOMZ was put on every sighting systems for the price of 1 million dollars. As a result, in 2011 the production of components for military vehicles compared with 2010 decreased by 7.6% and amounted to 69.5% of total revenue.

Nevertheless, in 2012 UOMZ plans to increase production by at least 16%, to 5.2 billion rubles. Moreover, it is planned to provide primarily due to an increase of 30% of the issue opto-electronic systems for both civilian and military equipment. And special attention will be given orders for the Russian army. For example, in 2011 began the first factory test system Omnidirection MTK201M-6 from the set of "Bark" for the frigate "Admiral Gorshkov".

Antiaircraft expectations

The most significant revenue growth in the past year among the manufacturers of onshore technology demonstrated Permian group of companies "MZ" (59%). This allowed the GC for the first time since 2008 a profit. The main trend in 2011 was almost three-fold increase in revenue from the sale of military equipment. In 2011, the company has put in Venezuela about 20 units MLRS "Grad" and about 10 self-propelled guns 2S23 "Nona-SVK". The successful implementation of the state defense order and export contracts for the supply of military equipment brought Motovilikha about 3.7 billion.

For the first half-year 2012, the sales of special equipment on Motovilikha increased by 24% (compared with the first half of 2011) to 2.2 billion rubles. In addition, the Defense Ministry previously stated its intention to acquire the company at 36 armored multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) "Tornado-G", 18 self-propelled artillery pieces such as "Nona-SVK", as well as 12 self-propelled artillery pieces such as "Host". According to preliminary estimates, the amount of the contract only MRL may be around 1.1 billion rubles. As noted in the group of companies, growth in bookings made possible by the opening of the company in 2011, the most modern in the country of artillery production. 

The armor is strong

Good financial dynamics in the past year has demonstrated Nizhny Tagil and manufacturer of tanks UralVagonZavod (plus 23%). However, as expected, the increment Uralvagonzavod production at the expense of civilian production, mainly railway equipment. Proceeds from sales of construction equipment decreased compared with 2010 almost doubled (to 12.8 billion rubles). Hope for defense procurement tank builders do not have to. Defense Ministry expects them to release a fundamentally new type of armored vehicles for multi-purpose platform "Armata". Under his release on Uralvagonzavod is now being re-equipment of production (in 2011 invested 1.1 billion rubles in 2012, is expected to have about 3 billion). The emergence of new technology is not expected until 2015.

Nevertheless, in 2012 Uralvagonzavod has the potential to bring the production of military products to the level of 2010. According to the report for the first half, the company has sold the machinery of 8.3 billion (41% more than in the same period of 2011). The increase was attributable primarily to the shipment of special products for export. Although slower, but still increased sales and railcar products (by 15.7%). This means that the financial performance Uralvagonzavod in 2012 will be not less than 2011.

A substantial increase in revenue in 2011 could expect and Kurgan, but due to a conflict with the Defense Ministry, he lost the state defense order for the BMP-3, the proceeds of which in 2010 provided him with more than 3 billion rubles. Save the sales of the plant was able due to a substantial increase in export — by 2.5 times (up to 5.4 billion rubles). And in the military orders were not lacking: more than 4 billion rubles he secured through export of armored vehicles of "Rosoboronexport

To export military contracts Kurganmash will focus, most likely, in the next two years. In the first quarter of 2012, the plant has shipped the party machinery in Venezuela, so that the revenue from the sale of special products for the three months (5.5 billion rubles) reached the level of 2011. Now the plant continues to previously signed contracts to supply equipment to a country in Latin America. The next step — the production of machinery still under two contracts signed with the "Rosoboronexport" in 2012. Their implementation will provide the loading capacity of the plant by the end of 2013. The plant does not see a reason for concern: "We have increased the output of civilian products, we have very good prospects for foreign orders," — said the executive director of "Kurgan" Igor Giske.

However, do not lose hope Kurganmashzavod government order to return: Kurgan "Special Design Bureau of Machine" is developing the project for him floating lightly armored vehicles "Kurganets-25" by order of the Defense Ministry. Complete the work, however, is planned only in 2015. The plant holds great promise for the car: it should be cheaper than German counterparts series "Puma" and "Marder" (they cost about 7 — $ 10 million).

The emphasis on the modernization of production and the development of new models of military equipment must be justified in the coming years. According to forecasts TSAMTO, global arms exports will continue to grow: in 2013 — at least until 60,206,000,000 U.S. dollars, in 2014 — 63.322 billion U.S. dollars, in 2015 — 77.5 billion dollars. And the competition among the major players will only escalate. Therefore Ural manufacturers must be prepared to offer the market a new technique. "While the domestic military products are in demand abroad. But the foreign buyer wants to see it as something that he has to offer the United States, Britain and France, "- said the representative of Rosoboronexport last year. Therefore, manufacturers of weapons and military equipment to rescue the modernization of production for export and the parallel development of a fundamentally new equipment, without which they do not need the internal market. 

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