10-day period for which was to stabilize the situation on the currency market, has been outlined by the government in early June. But the currency in banks did not appear. The first tranche of the EurAsEC Anti-Crisis Fund, which the authorities of Belarus were hoping to get to the middle of the month, is not listed. In question billion "down payment" for the privatization of assets "Belaruskali" from "Vralkaly." There is no certainty about the opportunity to get credit assistance from the International Monetary Fund. Against this background, the population continues to drain money from commercial banks.
Over the last three months of the Belarusians have heard many promises speedy recovery from the financial impasse. About the Emergency Stabilization said the head of government and individual ministries, the National Bank, Alexander Lukashenko personally. The latest statement on the eve of the talks on June 4 on the allocation of credit to Belarus EurAsEC made Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Rumas.
According to him, the government painted on days out to the free script kursavtvarenne, the positive results of which will manifest "within 10 days". However expiry — no credit or stabilization. Today, the National Bank said in a press release said, in the course of 5000 rubles per dollar — the only equilibrium in all segments of the foreign exchange market. As pointed out by the financial adviser Galina Kosacheva, nor about how free we are not talking kursavtvarenne:
"This is not even a no brainer that without free kursavtvarennya anything with no place to start. But they simply chained in handcuffs market and are trying to decide something. Absurd. Situation did not change: the National Bank is not going to sell the currency to commercial banks, respectively, everywhere you turn . What can be comment if they work to stand on your own? Perhaps there are some of his ideas, which we do not know, but I can not even imagine what kind of options. At least outwardly nothing indicates that steps are being taken to address the issue. Let's see, one can only hope that something really changed in a positive way. "
Observers point out the contradiction in the words of officials who, presenting the application for credit, say the willingness to reform and restructure the economy, but in reality continue to exercise administrative control over the financial sector. The International Monetary Fund in response to a request prakredytavatstsa worth up to $ 8 billion recommended the authorities to free prices and the exchange rate, wage freeze and do the structural changes in the economy. The Belarusian side expressed its readiness to do so, but this time keeps the price of public goods limit foreign exchange transactions under the 2 percent corridor, promises indexation of wages and denies the possibility of privatization, which he calls the "gang." Analyst Roman Kostitsyn says that this behavior is in stark contrast to what happened during the devaluation in neighboring Ukraine:
"As an example, I want to bring the situation to a landslide devaluation of the Ukrainian national currency at the end of 2008 — the relevant process began in November. So, all the actions of the National Bank of Ukraine kamentavalisya not only by independent experts, not only to the International Monetary Fund, but the actual Ukrainian government and opponents government. And it is this critical mass of comments vyravnovvannya finally led to a situation where the hryvnia, abvalivshysya from five to twelve per dollar returned to the level of eight and stabilized. "
Defined perspective leads to the fact that the population is less confidence in the financial system and the mass takes the money from foreign currency deposits. According to the National Statistics Committee, in the last three months of Belarusians took deposits from banks by almost a billion dollars.
If at the beginning of the crisis, in March, after the premature termination of contracts has been returned more than $ 40 million, over the next period figures have increased many times: in April deposits decreased by almost $ 460 million in May — a further 464 million. Currently, the volume of deposits in the currency exceeds 3 billion 700 million dollars, but the trend shows: people tend to have money on hand, and not to take risks. Deposits in Belarusian rubles in May fell by almost 1 trillion rubles.
Meanwhile, the authorities are trying to attract to the country at least some money. At the same time, experts say in the report fall even older long-term programs. Thus, the government reports a billionth of assistance from China. Financial Analyst Sergei Chaly mentions that in general the Belarusian leadership has promised to bring from China of $ 15 billion, and that some targeted programs stsipleyshyh sizes finally realized:
"With respect to China we are talking about it: there are mainly involved loans of Chinese" Eximbank "and that loans for specific investment program: it is the development of infrastructure, and lyagistychnyya terminals, and low energy, and everything else. And that, in principle, , a small dependence, as in the structure of these theoretical billion only one credit may be interstate. Therefore, by itself it is hard not to increase the national debt. But the trend in other areas is alarming. "
According to the National Statistics Committee, in the first quarter of the total external debt of Belarus has exceeded $ 31 billion, an increase of 3 billion since the beginning of the year. In other words, the amount of debt grows a billion monthly.