The crisis of the upper

Society is becoming increasingly apparent, that Belarus entered a period of instability. It is based on and escape unpleasant external circumstances, and the crisis of the Belarusian social model. On the inefficiency of its many years of independent experts said. Sooner or later, its systemic nesuchasnasts had somewhere manifest and become apparent to the public. And in March, broken at its narrowest point. The trade deficit grew louder and eventually turned into a currency crisis, which quickly pulled any and all other negative effects: a jump in inflation (8.8% in the year with an annual forecast 8.5%), the crisis of the sector of the economy associated with the import The crisis of foreign investments ($ 62.8 million in the first quarter, which is 1% of the annual forecast).
And, most importantly, the crane comes into a social crisis. Chairman of the National Statistics Committee Vladimir Zinovsky noted that about 600 thousand people were left without work. And the director of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Population Svetlana Shevchenko believes in Belarus possible sharp rise in unemployment and the emergence of social tension, if the current situation in the foreign exchange market to continue.
At the same time after December 19 can be stated foreign policy crisis. As a result of the conflict with the EU and the U.S. has disappeared Western vector of foreign policy, and with it — the ability to balance between Russia and the West. The very fact that the first foreign visit of Lukashenka in the status of the newly elected president took only four months after the election, is very significant. Even more symbolically looks a country that has suffered the first visit: Turkmenistan.
In this difficult situation, which was the country's leadership, it is interesting to observe his actions. The first conclusion from this observation: the problems and challenges facing the country, was a surprise to the ruling team. Explicit confusion, lack of a clear exit plan.
The second conclusion: the government (at least, Lukashenko) do not see these problems as a crisis of the social model. It is significant that the first section of the message, which was delivered by the President of the National Assembly, became the anthem of the Belarusian model of development, hymns special way of Belarus. Lukashenko believes that the currency crisis to blame for some temporary effects (excessive demand for cars), external causes (an increase in global commodity prices).
It is not only an explanation for the people and truly believes the head of state, according to his statements about the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP), which he repeated several times. No he did not explain that the more the GDP grows, the greater the negative balance of foreign trade, and the greater the foreign exchange deficit. As a result, Lukashenko is afraid of strong devaluation of the ruble, which hit the company's image, not realizing that the new state is the problem, the more dangerous for the devaluation.
It's amazing to watch the actions of the government during the economic crisis. National Bank steps resemble elephant movement in a china shop. First, it introduces a 30-day reserve currency purchases on the foreign stock exchange, then a week later cancels. Promises to introduce an alternative to the sale of foreign currency exchange session at market rate, then abandons it. Requires banks to sell the currency at a rate not greater than 4.5 thousand rubles to the dollar — as a result of any sale shall be suspended, and the National Bank cancels its decision. Prime Minister Myasnikovich in a moment of crisis in general went into a deep underground. A ban on state media to talk about price increases and deficit currencies — it compactly. So the authorities react to the economic crisis.
Something similar is happening in other areas. In response to a foreign policy crisis — heavily motivated aggression. Lukashenko did not find anything better than shame of the EU and Ukraine.
In response to the crisis of public confidence — again, aggression, threats, zatsiskanne nuts, wrestling with rumors over the arrests. No practical sense to close the newspaper "Narodnaya Volya" and "Nasha Niva" no. Circulation last — 7 thousand They no threat to the regime, and a negative response — great.
Thus, we see that the response to the challenges that confront the regime, inadequate. And this inadequacy — the first symptom of the crisis management. A in the words of renowned expert in the field of the revolution, Lenin, upper crisis — the first sign of a revolutionary situation.

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