The myth about how bad for Russia to join the WTO, or the "Diagnosis: Fear of the WTO is a common fear of change!"
An interesting overview of the phenomenon and the effects of WTO accession of Russia, from Paul Pulyaeva!
WTO — this is the World Trade Organization, to strike terror in some, the complete lack of understanding in others, and a burning desire to start from third. Well here we try to talk about it.
So, what is it?
This is actually a worldwide trade organization that monitors three things:
1. Rates of customs duties, with the help of this tool does not interfere with the country of imported goods;
2. The size of grants to support its producer — again, that there was no hyperstimulation;
3. Trade conflicts.
"Is that all?" — You ask? Yes. So trite and simple, especially in the context of the information wave dance with tambourines around the organization.
Nuance first — customs duties in Russia have already been in line with WTO requirements. That is, it is a long time running, and none of this has not yet died. The only difference is that we let imports, but they have (so far we have not WTO) yet. That is, we substitute the cheeks as if to strike, but not being able to punch back.
Nuance second — Now state subsidies to various areas of management are not limited to anything external. That means a huge feeder, for those who want to cut budgets by distributing a million and a million left to right, one who returns distributing half a million in his pocket. WTO also limit us in the number of possible subsidies in favor of business, significantly cutting the feeder used to living in a big way companions. And tell me, who is willing to voluntarily cut back on itself income? This is the question of who benefits from the abolition of the entry lobby.
Nuance third — U.S. claws burst into the ground, trying to drag out as long as possible abolition of limiting the Jackson-Vanik amendment. Do you think if they had been profitable Russian accession to the WTO, they would have clung to it for? Would fear us?
Nuance fourth — China at the time was embroiled in the WTO, as the whole world is afraid of the economic coalition of the socialist bloc. Can you imagine what would have happened had been going on for decades, China would not have worked in the United States and the USSR? And now Russia will join the WTO …
Nuance fifth — All the screaming about how our agriculture will suffer from WTO entry. Shout, of course those who do not want in the first place to adapt to the new conditions of quality competition, and secondly those who "sawed" subsidies. But none of them somehow remembers that joining the WTO, we will have a 3-year transitional period to adapt to the new realities.
Nuance sixth — We are already exporting to monetarily more than the import, as evidenced by the positive balance of our trade balance. For those who have forgotten the U.S. it is negative. Sundry, can go read the annual reports of the Federal Customs Service (smile).
Thus for all its exports from outside the WTO, we are paying inflated fees abroad. Our product is much more difficult to compete in foreign markets. And this is without taking into account the fact that the recipient State may at any time prohibit the supply of a product of Russia.
Imagine the expansion of our products to the markets of the WTO may be revealed in the future? Of course there will quotas and restrictions that are of such enrage. Of course, uncontrolled output loot in offshore accounts no longer work.
Just WTO scare any non-competitive businesses that do not have time over the years to straighten out their situation, living on grants. They, too, will be a loss. Competition for all to come. Or are you afraid of her?
Are you afraid? So you're not a professional.
But all the export-oriented and export-oriented potentially receive significant support for expansion. And the import-oriented, even in matters of raw materials will import at more reasonable prices for the subsequent production. Customs no longer stand over and dictate terms. Another corrupt krantik closes.
Nuance seventh — In the WTO, there is no requirement to buy and sell all over the Bucks. In addition, we have an agreement with many countries already on the swap lines, and now submitted to the State Duma a draft law to allow the Central Bank to open accounts at other central banks, ie bezdollarovaya direct trade is planned. So there!
"In competing Western companies may be cheaper credit money," you might say. In a crisis, then? — I will smile. They need the money to themselves for on-lending, etc. They just inside the vicious circle of low cost, but not suitable for expansion.
Again, the WTO subsidy support tracks, go dumping from Western companies will not work. Unless, that is, they arrange themselves "gay life" in the form of high inflation, which would weaken their currency relative to ours. But imagine what it is in relation to the same poor euro? And it would be, if you look at Europe from the inside, through the eyes of Europeans, whose accumulation and savings are burned in the fire of inflation … (Demonic laughter)
The banking sector is not affected by the WTO — so that the flow of toxic assets and will not waste paper. That's what I feared most, to be honest.
Well, still not convinced? Chesham more …
The most powerful argument, which is now used by the opponents of the WTO — a threat to domestic food companies. So to say a threat to national food security.
Yes. Cheap products are coming into our market, and will not sickly batch, but let us remember the magician Onishchenko! I hope everyone remembers about how it all these years of training in the introduction of certain restrictions? WTO does not regulate these prohibitions, and can not influence them. So after 3 years of the transition period will come from the Ministry of Health finest hour.
And keep in mind the cost of transportation to the heap of "enemy" products. The cost of packaging, delivery time, etc. Domestic manufacturer if he does not complete idler, will still have a significant advantage.
Fruit? Yes, here we can not stand the competition. And whether or not it us? If foreign will be cheaper and quality are comparable, you can immediately start to the domestic processing (while they are fresh, and this is a competitive advantage).
If you are still not convinced, let us analyze in more detail the following clear infographic.
So, first by goods fuel and energy complex — no changes will be made. That is, according to the infographic our budget by 72% and revenue generated from the fuel and energy complex remains normal. No meltdown about it. Cancellation of export quotas Chermet — it is also a good sign. Though opprodavaysya …
Next on the all-important bit of grub. Duty on imports of beef GROW. That is, We have our normal ability to raise cattle. Within range as 15%, and becomes. But above the quota by 5 percent import beef will be more expensive.
On the pork until 2020 fee is significantly reduced. Instead of 15% at the border importer will pay 0%. The demand for pork, we are now at 75% overlap, so it is projected to lose a maximum of 7% of the market. But it will be cheaper for the consumer and superior quality!
According smoking al
most unchanged, except that the above quota tariffs reduced by 15%, but we kuru for yourself at 85% above quota needs grow and consume at will. So there is no difference.
On milk for us, it will not affect practice. We trade with Belarus and Ukraine, and there is some agreement, not tied to the WTO. And we have a customs union!
Sugar we are exporting this year were, and duty on it does not change. So it makes no difference.
Grains, we are where we are exporting any obligations under the WTO did not take any damage to us, it will not only benefit from the removal of restrictions on the export side of our future partners in the WTO.
According Khimprom — a decline of 1.3% duty only encourages competition, but our chemical industry for a long time it is ready. Its been seven years as compressed on foreign markets, and now he has a chance to turn around as it should.
The forest is reduced duty under the quota. So on the one hand is the support of our forest industry on the other as above quota duty raised — stimulates processing
Every argument about the dominance of the import finishes, you'll probably want to call us a raw materials appendage?
Well, from this point of view, we shall find quite a bit. These 72% of the fuel and energy sector of which about 30 — not raw materials and primary products. Plus about 3-5 per cent of the forest. So the raw material from us leaves only about half. So there!
There will be no development of the technology? You see, we have it! Recall, for a very simple example — the defense industry. I hope you will not sink to the complaints that we do not produce Russian iphon'ov? Will you? Then this is for you Chubais and a seance with Steve Jobs.
In truth, because the problem is not the absence or presence of technology development. The problem is access to world markets. It just so happens that almost all markets, except for raw materials, firmly divided for a long time. And it is quite durable. So share them we have to win. And that was something to gain, it is necessary to trade with raw materials. And joining the WTO, we can at least try to win them over to the rules. Without the WTO, we can at any time to think of the rule that we did not succeed. That's the logic.
So, to summarize, we can say that the WTO is like the ax with which to cut off your leg or build a house — it depends entirely on the immediacy of hands. Or, "It was not in the reel, the idiot sitting in the cockpit"
And then there we will only 154th. And, pushing the U.S. and Europe, we suddenly realize that the rest of the world trade expansion in China has not yet conquered and we have a good chance to do it for him. So Nehru afraid! Eyes fear, the hands are doing.
Of course, unless you are reactionary and corruption and bribe-taker with the classic syndrome of fear of stimulation …
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