The paradox of Chinas military power as yet undervalued

The phenomenon of Chinese military power is still underestimatedOver the past four years, HBO has repeatedly appealed to the Chinese theme. Quite a mention of the article "The occupation of the Russian Federation China is inevitable" (22.02.08), "Nearest neighbor — a future military superpower" (27.03.09), "Beijing tiger readied to pounce" (26/06/09), "Millions of fighter plus modern weapons" ( 09/10/09), "The Chinese prudent warning" (12/03/10), "Moscow offered very dull choice" (10.09.10). They said that at the current rate of growth of the economy and the use of China in any way will not be able to live without the outer expansion, with the prettiest of her areas of focus are our homeland and Kazakhstan.

Subject is not exhausted, and even, on the contrary, more and more updated. In Russia, continue to be very very worried about how the U.S. is going to make missile defense in Europe, which actually is a system of defense.

And in an unusual way as before do not notice that at the other end of Eurasia another country forges a more powerful, pure offensive potential impact, the deployable, curiously, in the main at our borders.

From legend to reality

About the military capabilities of People's Liberation Army (PLA) is celebrated quite magnificent paradox of deliberate understatement of both quantitative and for high-quality performance. Western sources for it more, and maybe even more characteristic than Russian. For example, has exceptional resistance myth that China is producing the latest technology quite small batches, just, apparently to stretch their legs. And then this thing for some reason throws.

Nothing is more stable myth that Chinese brand new technique is very poor properties because not able to withstand any Western or Russian. Legends of these (like all legends in general) do not have any proof, but very hard to penetrate into the general consciousness. And in yet another respect Russian and Western sources show complete unanimity. They keep on saying that, if targeted against whom and Chinese military production, it is only against Taiwan (and the United States, if they take the risk to prevent "the restoration of the territorial integrity of China," ie, anger against Taiwan). Well, in the latter case — against the ASEAN states. But absolutely not against Russia. For example, the creation of which has no analogues in the world family of amphibious vehicles Toure 05 (infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled guns, light tank) Explained it as soon as antitayvanskoe event, although these cars are perfect in order to cross the Amur and Ussuri rivers.

Meanwhile perfectly clear that the creation of art in small batches is simply not profitable economically (because the more units of output produced, the cheaper any unit) and very silly militarily. If the equipment is not much, each standard is the "gold" and economically, and militarily. But since such practices specifically at the moment and show our homeland, and Europe, they believe that China is behaving the same way.

In fact, China has taken quite a long time to experiment with different types of equipment class 1, selecting the best model, and eliminating various shortcomings. In this case, the Chinese have followed his own principle of "cross the river by feeling the stones", which are held by their reforms. Reaching the rational from their point of view, the result, they run across the mass production of a successful standard. Such a mass that neither Europe nor the Russian Federation did not dream. But this is for some reason in the West and in Russia to build stubbornly unwilling.

Quite scandalously under-reported in the West, the nuclear missile arsenal in China. Virtually all Western sources (which in Russia simply uncritically overwritten) are prevalent values of the number of nuclear warheads from China in 200-300 units, which is simply unrealistic to comment, while remaining within the framework of the regulatory language. Similarly, in most cases, given the values of the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles — ICBMs (DF-30, 31, 24 DF-5) medium-range ballistic missile — IRBM (20 DF-4, 30 DF-3A, 80 DF-21) and operative tactical missiles — OTR / TP (600 DF-11, DF-15, 300) in fact are unlikely to even lower limit values.

Estimates of production capacity and the presence of Chinese military-industrial complex in central China's large system of underground tunnels for shelter IRBM and ICBM they say that China can only have up to thousands of ICBMs and at least not the least IRBM. As for the total number of nuclear devices of different power and purpose, it is unlikely that we can talk about the magnitude of the lower than 10 thousand units, taking into account that their establishment in the PRC is already 47 years old.

Beijing refuses to open a discussion in general size and disposition of its own nuclear arsenal, saying it only very minor amounts. But he was not smuschyaetsya show all new standards in all classes of ballistic missiles (ICBMs from TP to), and now and cruise missiles. Even the demonstration of more or less clear that only the number of carriers class ICBM / IRBM, China now has more than 200-300. It should be recalled that, with regard to the Russian Federation Chinese IRBM are vsepolnotsennym strategic weapon, as to take out at least some point in our country. We do not have the IRBM. Since its ICBMs and submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), we hold the U.S., with China on nuclear arms is at the moment has developed a very significant imbalance in its favor, although we have some reason to believe his tremendous an advantage.

In general, in the field of conventional arms still worse. Confirmation of "peaceful intentions" of China is reducing the number of personnel, the incident still early 80's. With all of this somehow ignores the fact that the PLA is still naikrupneyshey on this indicator quantitatively improved sharply perfectly. Due to the large surplus of draft resources, peacetime army joins in himself hired pros and recruiting. On the one hand, people are going to serve for their country, not for the money (the call), on the other hand, the surplus allows people to choose the best service (in other words, first urban boys), many of whom then left to serve under the contract.

Moreover, from a previous service contract forms the Chinese are beginning to private military companies (PMCs), which are personal only formally. Specifically, these PMCs, which are practically a branch of the PLA may, in time of peace to protect the economic interests of overseas Chinese (first — in Africa). Those young men who were drafted into the PLA (usually — rural, with low levels of education), are the primary military training and should, of course, make a mass army in the event of a major war. For China it remains absolutely mobilization system (as applied to a population, and to the industry.)

At what theater can get away TANKS OF CHINA AND THE U.S.?

Of course, only "peaceful purposes" China is the world's naikrupneyshy tank fleet. Here hunt once again reminded that lead a normal war without tanks unreal. This lowercase truth must be repeated as often as the tank "bury", saying that he was "out of date". The statements contain these profound internal contradiction that for some reason no one notices. From the perspective of "gravediggers" tank "out of date" because he was very vulnerable, no other "charges" the tank is not shown.
Indeed, the development of anti-tank weapons are invested billions of dollars in the world, created a huge number of them. The point, but that at least some other class of ground vehicles by 1-2 orders more vulnerable than the tank. If the tank is "out of date" because of the vulnerability means a ground war can no longer lead in general. What can hardly open a discussion seriously. Nothing comparable to the tank, from the standpoint of a combination of firepower, mobility and protection and never will be.

Discussions about the "funeral" of the tank began to spread after the October War of 1973, when a huge number of Israeli Arabs tank was hit by anti-tank missiles (ATGM), and anti-tank rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs). It is interesting that the Israelis themselves from the tanks and then for some reason could not have refused. On the contrary, releasing 1.5 thousand most secure in the world of tanks "Merkava", they are to this day remain in service with two thousand tanks of old times, including the "Centurions", M48 and captured T-55 production of the 50s! The tanks Americans in 2003 for two weeks got to Baghdad. The tanks in the 2008 Georgia invaded South Ossetia and tanks Our homeland is kicked her out. Even in counterinsurgency wars, as the experience of Chechnya, Iraq and Afghanistan, the tank is indispensable, and in traditional war he was, is and will be the basis of the striking power of not only the Army, and the Armed Forces as a whole.

If the European NATO countries in the last 20 years for one new tank for more than 15 written off, in China the substitution of an old car to the new is actually in the "one to one". Number of tanks in service with the PLA is measured at 8-10 thousand. Just 15 years ago, it was only a machine, made on the basis of the T-55. Now they are coming to replace the tanks 96 and Toure Toure 99, who own the T-72, but with a very significant borrowing of Western technology (for example, 99 for the Tour of Germany was delivered more than 300 diesel engines, which are then China successfully copied).

At this point in the PLA Army has thousands of 2.5-3 Toure Toure 96 and 99 600-800 (found in some sources, including 1.5 thousand Tour 96 Tour 99 and 200 refer to the years 2005-2006). In this case, the creation of both the tempo of the machine lasts more than 200 a year (maybe 400-500), which is more than all the other nations of the world put together (in fact, neither the West nor the tanks in Russia at the moment is not executed). For comparison we can say that the European NATO countries have now armed with a total of about 2.8 thousand "Leclerc", "Challenger" and "Leopard 2" all modifications, and in the Russian Federation in combat units and bases storage and repair of weapons and equipment (BHIRVT) throughout the country has a little more than two thousand tanks.

In Vietnam, only 1.3 thousand tanks, of which the most "modern" 70 T-62. With India wage war tanks problematic, since they are unlikely to pass through the Himalayas (although China is already in Tibet to weave the Tour 96A). About Taiwan with its less than tyschey American tanks of old times just funny read. Only the United States, which now has about 6.2 thousand "Abrams", the number of modern tanks superior to China, but it is unclear at what theater, and under what circumstances can come together to fight the South American and Chinese tanks. With all of this it should be noted that if the Tour of 96 entered service already in the neighborhood of all military PLA, the more massive the Tour 99, which the Chinese themselves have declared the best tank in the world, coming into service in Beijing, Shenyang and Lanzhou BO (target Trans-Baikal, Far East of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, respectively). Teachings with working deepest offensive operations on land in recent years, the PLA conducts certainly not against Taiwan.

Countless arguments professionals that Chinese tanks terrible western and Russian (with a never-ending discussion of details such as angles or armor-range laser rangefinder acts) are not worth a damn. Toure Toure 96 and 99 are in the same "weight class" with "Abrams", "Challenger", "Leclerc", "Leopard 2", C-1, "Merkava" Toure 90, K-1 and K-2 T-72, T-80, T-90, T-84 and PT-91, including all the numerous modifications of these tanks. Performance characteristics of these machines are very close. Neither one of them has such advantages over any other one, so shoot him, as at the landfill. In the real battle, the final will be determined by the specific tactical situation, crew training, agility and, most importantly, the quantity. Some lag in quality, even if it in fact is, the Chinese are simply offset quantitative The advantage of. In addition, their tanks just on the physical level is newer Russian and Western, as produced later.

The phenomenon of Chinese military power is still underestimated

First Chinese aircraft carrier — past the "Varyag", and at the moment, "Shi Lang".

Yastrebino NEST will not exceed SUN

A similar situation is with the combat aircraft. Number of languid Su-27/J-11 family fighters (Su-27 purchased in Russia, J-11A, manufactured under license, J-11B, manufactured at the moment without a license) in the Air Force and naval aviation PLA has already exceeded 300, and will be brought to at least 500. With all of this J-11B will change not only all the J-8, and the part or even all of the Su-27. By the number of languid fighters China has actually caught up with the U.S. and Russia, essentially bypassed India and Japan, and more than just not associate with anyone.

Lightweight fighter J-10, which at the moment there are more than 220, most likely one hundred percent will change J-7, in this case only in the PLA Air Force will be up to thousands of them (although the Russian and Western sources constantly says that these machines only 300 will be made — quite unclear what the ceiling is taken from the figure, when and to whom Chinese General Staff reported on the plans of their own.) For all this, as in the case of tanks, the cost arguments about the shortcomings J-10 (with a never-ending debate has other parts such as rate of climb, range radar acts or number of points of the suspension arms) is zero. This aircraft is in the same class as the F-16, F-18, "Mirage-2000", "Typhoon", "Grippenom" and MiG-29.

Final battle between them will be determined by all the same — some tactical situation, pilot training, agility and, importantly, the quantity. It must be emphasized that, if the size of the U.S. Air Force and the Russian Federation is reduced, then the Chinese, on the contrary, grows. With all this Chinese aircraft purely on a physical level, newer American and Russian. A similar situation in China and to Taiwan, an advantage in the air above which will soon become overwhelming. Of possible enemies, only India and China increases its own fleet, but it lags behind China in its size and production capacity.

The most difficult part for China remain in the areas of strike aircraft. Modernization of the H-6 in cruise missiles, air carrier (ALCM) is not enough to change the situation because of the general archaic this aircraft. It is also very outdated Q-5 attack aircraft, even modifying it with western avionics can hold only developing countries. In general, partially offset by the lack of percussion machines presence of a huge number of TR and
OTR, also by shock unmanned aerial vehicles, UAVs (WJ-600, CH-3, "Ilong", etc.). In addition, the Air Force and naval aviation comes bomber JH-7. At the moment there are about 200 units, roughly equal to the Air Force and naval aviation. Creating lasts expectation and can reach 300-400 aircraft. Apparently, the decision at first strike missions will target 100 units of Su-30 (76 in the Air Force, 24 in naval aviation) and license free copy of J-16, the creation of which, of course, will begin in late. In general, the Chinese have made another substitute strike aircraft.

Dragon-range artillery

Usually the stronger side is the PLA Army rocket artillery. Back in the 70s and 80s in this field in China was largely independent of the Soviet Union. The country has created a huge number of samples multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), both on the basis of Russian, and it is your own. It is reasonable that it is in China created the most powerful and long-range missile systems in the world of WS-2 (6h400 mm), the first of which modifications have firing range of 200 km, and the last (WS-2D) — 350-400 km. Neither the South American MRLS and HIMARS, nor our "Smerch" are not even close to the TTC for WS-2.

In general the introduction of MLRS on ground area targets more profitable than the use of air power. After all, with all this there is the risk of loss is very expensive aircraft and even more costly in the training of the crew, do not waste too much precious fuel. Only spent ammunition, and thus they have less air MLRS ammunition. Missing accuracy MLRS offset by a huge number of shells produced in a single salvo.

At the moment, shells and MLRS are correctable. Specifically, this refers to the WS-2 projectiles. Moreover, any of the MLRS launchers will have a "personal" reconnaissance drone, which further increase the accuracy. MRL also significantly superior tactical missiles and combat power at even lower cost of shells compared with missiles. The main drawback of MRL compared with aviation and TR was listed as a missing firing range. But now the Chinese have overcome this defect.

As a global military public found out about the existence of WS-2D, it is also said that Taiwan now would be quite bad. After all, this MRL with a Chinese bank would get up at least some of the island. Indeed, Taiwanese, not envy. But now for some reason no one drew attention to the fact that the depth of Manchuria WS-2D is capable of simultaneously kill all the Russian armed forces in the areas of Vladivostok-Ussuriisk, Khabarovsk and Blagoveshchensk-Belogorska. And from the border of Manchuria (but still with the Chinese countryside) this MRL kill Russian troops and air bases in the region of Chita and strategic enterprises of Komsomolsk-on-Amur.

With all of this small-sized shells WS-2D have hypersonic speed, their flight time even at the highest range does not exceed 5 minutes. Russian air defense is not something that hit even be able to find them. Especially since completely impossible to find the deployment of missile systems to the Chinese countryside, as they resemble ordinary PU trucks (even the guides are very suitable for disguise truck box shape). And it's not defensive, it is purely a shock, offensive system. South American "Tomahawk", of course, have a huge range, but the rate at their subsonic because the flight time to the highest range is not 5 minutes and 2 hours. Besides their PU (cruisers and destroyers) certainly is not under any zamaskiruesh. More is nothing remotely comparable in performance characteristics with the WS-2, at the NATO states do not.

In other words, China was able to instant unexpected non-nuclear strike forces completely kill the Eastern Military Area (OIE) in mainland Russia (not counting stationed in Buryatia). After that, you can just take the area. Of course, we continue to passively believe in nuclear deterrence. Just as said first article, we do not know what the actual size of the Chinese nuclear arsenal. Management of China could somehow show the Russian management of its real, not invented in Stockholm or London dimensions. And to imagine that our homeland will not dare to put a massive blow to China because of the fear response. Especially if Beijing can help Moscow save face.

In this regard, you need to pay attention to the words of the book "China is unhappy!" (HBO wrote about it in the article, "Beijing tiger readied to jump"): "We need to first or first secure the interests of China. Need to work to ensure that China took the place of the older and able to manage all of our world … What are the goals of China in the future? China, of course, has to dispose of bolshennymi resources and areas in the world, here I am not asking them to join our area of the country, I mean the administration and management. " So Makar, capturing the countryside, Beijing, maybe it would not seek a legal connection to China. It will be quite effective control over it. Accordingly, the reverse side, in this case seems to be not lost, because on the map the border remains in place.

Apparently, the attempt by our officials and the majority of professionals in silence the fact of a natural hazard despite the facts and go for the biggest concessions in China's political and economic spheres explains the fear of "angry" China. In that case, there can be seen as unwarranted attribution management of China's motives irrational anger, opportunities to commit offenses motivated by anger.

In fact, to this day management of the PRC in all cases showed only a high degree of pragmatism. That's why even more reason to believe that if the question of the danger of Chinese and measures to parry will open a discussion in Russia not only at the level of individual creators, and at the official level and if at least some measures will also be implemented, it is not increase, and reduce the risk of anger, as in the leadership of the PRC usvoyut that "the game is not worth the candle" and the need to find other areas of expansion. It may be only in this case the cost of aggression against the Russian Federation to China will be the highest so that there would be justified in any case (even if the risk of internal crash in China).

In order to achieve such results need quite naturally, strengthening the defense. In 1-x, ligaments SNF + defense. Maybe, you need a way out of the contract of the INF Treaty, which in today's criteria simply binds our hands. In-2, you need to seriously strengthen the mundane forces in TSB. Namely, the best (more precisely, the only) way to combat missile systems are "Iskander", only to have them not at the border and in the depths of the countryside.

Nuclear weapon really should be the last argument, not the first and only one. In addition, the need to create international alliances with reciprocal obligations to protect each other. A necessary ally for us to be able to become Kazakhstan (in this case, the CSTO at anything), Mongolia (in military terms, it has zero potential, but strategically important areas only large), India and Vietnam.

The imminent default this prepyadstviya contribute to its worsening and increasingly makes it difficult to parry it. A similar situation with respect to so severe for the country's security issue is unacceptable. Although, of course, you can believe that the Chinese administration is wasting hundreds of billions of dollars on the latest technology just for the sake of capturing Taiwan. And after that go down without a fight (so far everything is going exactly to that), China all the tanks, planes, missiles and missile systems will drown in the sea. And will live happily ever after and goodness.

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