Turn into butterflies?

29.12.2004

29.12.2004


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We have at least another quarter of a century

End of the world — not just a horror story of American fighters or bitter, "the opium of the people." This — the mathematical reality and inevitable event in the life of the current generation already. So says Vladimir Bodyakin, mathematician, student of the problem professionally. However, we are not necessarily destined road to "pesch fire."

Clock — even sand, though electronic — are convinced that the time is linear: half an hour before yesterday are exactly equal to that of today. As for evolution — a matter of living, society, spades or shovels — the time is rapidly accelerating. Yes, everyone has probably noticed in school history lessons or Biology: Life on Earth has evolved in the simplest forms for billions of years, the first vertebrates dominated by hundreds of millions of years, mammals — tens of millions, humanoid — millions and reasonable, I may say, well, such as you and me — only hundreds of thousands of years.

Reading the book academician Dmitry Likhachev "ages and styles", I drew attention to a number of evolutionary scientists built: Romanesque style dominated European of arts almost a thousand years old, gothic defined artistic thinking half a millennium, the art of the Renaissance was given no more than three centuries , Baroque — two century classicism — a half eclecticism gone in less than a hundred years, modern svistanul for twenty years, Art Deco — fifteen, and in the post-war aesthetics started flickering styles such that they do not always have time to differentiate. Dmitry call our troubled times, the era of individual styles. But the essence remains unchanged: the reference points of time thickened.

Unfortunately, the structure of our Academies of Sciences Institute of Applied eschatological no research or time problems. But specialist with concerns about the evolutionary development of the limb, I still found. It appeared researcher at the Institute of Control Sciences, professor of the Moscow Physical-Technical Institute, the candidate fizmatnauk Vladimir Ilyich Bodyakin. Lots of charts hanging on the walls of his office, legions of bearded eloquent astrologers prove the inevitability of a global cataclysm.

Well, for example: the era of manufacturing on the x-axis is given around half a meter, the industrial era — two inches, the age of information (which lasts today, and is close to completion) fits on a three centimeters, and for the subsequent era of the noosphere (the time of planetary mind) went a few millimeters. What's next?

On another graph, the horizontal axis represents time, too, but billions of years. In the left part of the delineated a small ellipse, are plants, the habitat of each of them — within meters. The ellipse is somewhat larger animals, the sphere of action of each — kilometers, more because no lynx or antelope will not escape. Right — even larger ellipse, a man, a sphere of its influence in the thousands of kilometers. Finally, ellipse, indicating super-intelligence, the noosphere, extends to the entire universe.

The most important for the understanding of the evolutionary chart compares how change over time resource intensity (weight, volume, time spent on the production of any product of human hands) and an information resource or knowledge. The curve of resource since ancient times gradually increases, reaching a maximum at about our age, and in the foreseeable quarter-century cool slides down. The curve of accumulated knowledge too slowly, gradually increasing throughout history, in our age makes a sharp bend upward and rapidly goes to infinity, more closely approaching, but not reaching the vertical, the number indicated on the chart in 2030.

— You are regarded as marginal calendar date? — Ask a scientist.

— The number, of course, approximate. But somewhere between 2030 and 2050, the continuous development of civilization will end. There will be an event that indicates the phase transition.

— Where such information?

— We studied the evolution of information and computer technology. It is not so important to consider what kind of evolutionary series, the trend, then the total. All the laws of the completion of our era are described infinitely decreasing series.

— But the word "infinitely decreasing" contrary to the notion of "end of the world."

— And I did not prophesy the end of the world. But talking about the inevitability of qualitative change. They will be favorable or disastrous for humanity — a separate issue. And the answer depends on the collective mind of humanity.

— But such a forecast, forgive, like the turnover of tarot cards: the long road of hearts king of clubs interested …

— That's just guessing we do not. But trying to understand the current trends. You can see in the chart: resource intensity is falling, but the information resource is growing even more rapidly. At the intersection of the two curves (and it will come about in one of the closest years) will occur unprecedented event in the history of mankind: the information will be more valuable than material resources.

— Do not have a hundred rubles, and have a hundred friends?

— If friends provide information support, it is so. This pattern is clearly shown in the last half-century in Japan almost no resources, but the cult of intelligence, knowledge, and information technology led the country into a world leader. Modern nanotechnology convincing: some molecules is enough to get everything you want. Resource, as you can see, the minimum. But the information needs are enormous.

— But what is the intersection of the curve with the horizontal axis of resource? Is the world can exist with zero resources?

— Maybe it is just not in the material form to which we are accustomed.

— That turn into angels, eating light?

— No one knows. Only one thing can be stated with certainty: when the information becomes an important resource, the world is entering a phase of unsustainable development. Maybe, the phase transition will allow a person to become a creator of new universes. Or maybe carelessness during the school laboratory work on the "fusion" will draw a line under the whole evolution of highly organized matter on Earth. Apocalypse can not be avoided, that's just him being a Light or dark?

It is hard to guess. We are talking of two tracks that will soon (or will not) turn into butterflies. Maybe something like talking at one time, two residents of the planet Phaeton with pieces from the explosion into small pieces, asteroids.

However, Vladimir Ilyich Bodyakin believe in the bright future of mankind. Obliged to believe. Where he go, head of the research project "Informograd."

About — very briefly. "Utopia" by Thomas More read it? Or "Sun City" Tommaso Campanella? So, "Informograd" — from the same series, only adjusted to the realities of the computer age.

250-300 multidisciplinary team gathered together to form an intelligent system, which increases the power of each one thousand times. It's like comparing a multicellular organism is numerically equal to the colony of single-celled. In Informograde gross product will not machinery or grain, and information. Information resource favorably with the material so that it is not the law of conservation: for me and for you an apple, and exchanged — and again, each an apple, but when I do, and you have the idea, shared — and each has for two ideas.

Moreover, in Informograde will not familiar social ills of any society, where, as might claim constitutional equality, it is still put forward the "first among equals", which, at the best, most appropriate a piece of fat, well even if you are not satisfied with the Gulag.

Informograd like he's up to the creators, appearing to be without bosses. Only the duty of equal number of citizens employed creativity. Well, where is the guarantee that "the duty usurper" in a modest tunic and breeches did not once say fellow citizens: "Papitka — ne beverage?"

Guarantee, according to the computer utopians of the XXI century, in full transparency. The new information reality creates a new morality: to be selfish would be unprofitable, steal — to their detriment, rise above the neighbor — the path to self-imposed isolation, envy — is meaningless because of their intellectual mediocrity.

Informogrady will be created, including on the floating islands. Ocean inexhaustible resource, and it will give food and wealth. Opportunities of climate control will stabilize the global ecology. The victory over the aging and achieving practical immortality bring closer "common cause" of the philosopher N.Fedorova: return the dead to life, because they deserve a place in heaven no less than we, happy contemporaries eternity.

Of course, I did not believe a cute scientist interlocutor. Probably because that does not take an expert in than neyrosemanticheskie computer systems (for them near future) are superior to the current von Neumann. Maybe because of my romantic youth have already promised a radiant future where man is — a friend and fellow party members.

But Vladimir Ilyich Bodyakin assures that there is no choice. Or by neural systems will improve the morals and their (sorry for the stylistic break) will enter into the kingdom of God. Or the relentless evolutionary selection cull our species, as 99% of the other, worn at one time from the face of the planet.

Daniel Countryman

On the face of impossible 24.2004

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