The National Bank of Belarus tries to correct near-catastrophic situation on the currency market, but its actions are independent experts called a half. For example, the National Bank has decided to extend the May 12 corridor fluctuations of the Belarusian ruble against the so-called basket of currencies by 4%. According to experts, the increase in this index from 8% to 12% did not bring the expected change in either the financial system or the economy as a whole.
In April, the deviation of the value of the Belarusian ruble against the basket of currencies close to the maximum value of the lower limit defined by 2011 — minus 7.96%. Obviously, in a situation of acute shortage of foreign exchange, and a multiplicity of courses to keep within certain limits is not possible. Vanity of hope can be seen in currency transactions, where the National Bank stubbornly keeps for commercial banks 2 percent of the maximum strip departing from the official rate.
But save a situation such extension corridor? And does this mean the recognition of the inevitability of inflation, which only hasten the devaluation? Commented Financial Analyst Eugene Pimenov:
"The question is not only a devaluation, which, in fact, and so came as the possibility of free kursavtvarennya. This is what the IMF is constantly demanded of the National Bank: to the official rate of 2% different from the market, not what the market has to adjust under 2%, set by the National Bank. That is the main thing here — free kursavtvarenne National Bank and the binding of its official rate to the situation prevailing in the market. other words — based on statistics, which he receives from market transactions. Anyway, even if we talking about the need for devaluation, it is necessary to bear in mind the possibility of free kursavtvarennya in the financial market. Firstly in order to set up a certain real rate at which people can buy and sell currencies. "
Belarusian authorities to rescue the currency of paralysis seen in Russian loan. Back in April, the National Bank said that Belarus will come to a unified exchange rate in May, will only get billionth of a loan from Russia. However, come the next long weekend, and no signals from Moscow not. Experts do not rule out that the Belarusian side simply does not fit the requirements put forward by the lenders. To get loans from Russia and EurAsEC anti-crisis fund in the amount of $ 3 billion, Belarus should undertake structural reform of monetary and fiscal policy. However, in addition to the assurance that the reforms will, in practice, nothing happens. Economist analyzes the situation Lev Margolin:
"4% of the annex to the" corridor "to change anything at all can not, it's just child's play. I think that if it really matters will be resolved by the Russian loan, the numbers we see others. Indeed, Russian experts believe what you need not operate numerals 4, 10, 20 or even 30%, and requires devaluation least twice. That is — almost one hundred percent. Maybe something to win and succeed, but the fact is that in itself a devaluation does not solve any problems, it's like oxygen bag to the patient. For a while, it becomes easier, but what's next? And further still need reform. "
Reporter"All the same drastic measures are needed to have people were some certainty? Four thousand to the dollar — then four, five — five so. "
"Absolutely. As they say, better a terrible end than an endless horror. We, unfortunately, are preparing the last …".
Recall that almost two months have passed since that time, both in Belarus has been experiencing shortage of foreign currency. Buy dollars, euros, money from other countries at the official exchange rate in exchange offices practically impossible, money changers, risking their freedom, give 3800-4000 rubles per dollar. The dollar transacted on the OTC market has exceeded 5,000 rubles per dollar. In this case, the official rate of the National Bank keeps on mocking around 3001 rubles per dollar. In this digital discord, there are examples of absolute extremes in stores "duty free" Minsk airport euro are translated at the rate of 10,100 rubles.
Meanwhile National Bank adjusts its guidance on the implementation of the same through currency exchange offices. Now exchangers "Belarusbank", especially those located at the border crossings can not sell dollars or euros received from the public. They say that the money will go to "social objectives": treatment, tuition and living expenses of students leaving due to illness or death of relatives. In Belarusbank this creates a separate place those who will submit the relevant application.