Tsigankov: Evening of June 30 there was anecdotal evidence that the National Assembly ratified the alleged Customs Code of the Customs Union of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan. Deputies themselves and official sources have not confirmed the ratification. Why is this combination of a secret ballot is done and what goals?
"Then there was a choice between bad and very bad"
Koktyish: I think that with the Customs Union from the beginning was very contradictory situation. There was hope that Belarus will receive duty-free oil. Alternatively, just not developed. And it turned out that instead of getting cheap oil and a profit of $ 5 billion, signed a Customs Union of Belarus on unfavorable terms. Belarus loses a number of points, but could not lose if the work was carried out in coordination and harmonization of the Belarusian and Russian interests in the framework of the Customs Union. But this was not done.
Next was a choice between bad and worse. Do not sign a customs union — it's a suicide, the loss of the Russian market, as Russia will not support two different customs union. If Belarus does not sign the agreement, there is a customs union with Kazakhstan and the Customs Union with Belarus will be eliminated, and then Belarus is losing the Russian market, which it can not afford.
Tsigankov: Why not sign open, solemnly? Why the mystery?
KoktyishThis means that there is nothing to bargain failed. They said that there will be bargaining that Belarus will sign only on favorable terms, only in exchange for cheap oil and nothing else, and it turned out that this was not achieved, but still had to sign. It is an understandable position, which could have been avoided if there had been diligent daily work of those agencies that have to do it, and do not throw their hats Russia. Now had to sign, not knowing how to present it as a victory of the Belarusian society.
Tsigankov: Mr. Zaleski, how would you rate pretty fantastic even for an authoritarian countries the situation where 110 people, which are called deputies signed a fateful document — and that "the young man firmly held during the interrogation," do not tell anyone about this fact? What does this mean?
"Belarusian" parliament "- a fictitious body, fictitious representatives."
ZaleskiUnknown, took another orgasm Belarusian democracy. My representative in Parliament no official announcement did not make on this subject in the National Assembly. But in fact, all this would be funny if it were not so sad. Allegedly, there is a representative body, there are representatives. Who is it represents the interests of business — we do not know who represents the interests of the workers — we do not know them, too. This is evidence that this is a fictitious body, fictitious representatives. They do not represent anyone but themselves.
And as they stay very much afraid of who is the real power — Lukashenko. As he told them, so did they. Ordered to vote night, they would have voted at night, would have ordered the next day to bring the rope with soap and water — would bring. Such a parliament.
Tsigankov: In your opinion, this is done to July 4-5 in Astana, the situation was more or less free for different actions? If so turn — will say: we ratified long ago. If you turn the other way — say, there was no ratification.
Zaleski: I can not say anything because there was no official announcement. When in fact it was done, it is another opportunity to wave around a certain asset of the Customs Union. But the problem is that this card is quite false. There is a nomenclature of foreign economic activity, a list of many thousands of different headings that are exchanged between the neighboring countries. For each item professionals should negotiate terms: price, transit, tariff, etc. This was not done. The hope was that we would be open Russian coffers and we run there hands trough. It did not work. So what's next? The trouble is, the national disaster — such a vote, and the results of relations with the largest trading partner.
"Point one way or another will be delivered — with or without Belarus"
Tsigankov: Is it possible, in your view, to predict what will happen on July 4-5 in Astana, where they will meet the leaders of Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus, and is supposedly to be put an end to the issue of the Customs Union?
Koktyish: The point is there anyway to be staged — with or without Belarus, as Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov, Russia has twice stated that the customs union can exist as a Russian-Kazakh company for two and that will be launched at any cost. So I think that the 5th it will all be signed, the Customs Union will work as Belarus can not afford to lose the Russian market right now.
Of course, will be done again attempt to bargain, but it is unlikely to be better prepared than the previous ones, it is unlikely it will be more fruitful. The same customs union can exist entirely on other conditions for Belarus, but these opportunities have passed by. Do not sign a customs union — economic suicide, so this option is ruled out.
TsigankovKirill you refrain constantly saying that Belarus can not afford not to sign a customs union, as it would mean the loss of the most important economic partner — Russia. But as far as it is uncontested? That's not Ukraine in the Customs Union with Russia, but has a normal economic relations with it.
Koktyish: First of all, I would not say that the Ukrainian economy is thriving. Second, Ukraine — a member of the World Trade Organization, it can not join the Customs Union, it is a little ahead of the rest of the country. But to say that in Ukraine there are production, large enterprises — is not necessary. Something of Agriculture left metalodobycha and metalobrabotka, but not those that have been the backbone of the Ukrainian industry and now constitute the backbone of the Belarusian industry.
Tsigankov: We can not get hung up in the Ukraine. My idea is that, except for Belarus and Kazakhstan, hundreds of countries not included in the Customs Union of Russia, and somehow maintain economic relations with it. Why such a lack of alternatives in your words?
Koktyish: Who else needs Belarusian MAZ, BelAZ, tractors, trucks? All the Belarusian industry has one customer — Russia. For some reason she does not need the EU, the U.S. and the rest of the customers. It's either the preservation of a buyer who today still is, or it will be lost — and it is unknown whether there will be another. You can walk through the market, to look, but looking for — not yet found. Should be protected, that is.
Tsigankov: It seems wrong and looking for that cus
tomer. Belarus has always counted on only one customer, and can be found in other countries. It only starts to get in the last year or two.
Koktyish: Speaking of Belarusian industrial products, trucks, tractors, they are not sold anywhere else. With that in Soviet times, the geography of sales was quite broad, but it is not saved.
Tsigankov: The issue of whether there is an alternative for the Belarusian economy, continue with Michael Zalessk. Kirill Koktysh remembered that the current situation is worse than in Soviet times, ie Belarus lost their positions, focusing only on one market. What can be done in the future, there is an alternative for the Belarusian economy?
"We have lost 20 years on various integration games and breaking glasses in the Kremlin"
Zaleski: Russia and Kazakhstan together occupy seventh of the planet. There are millions of people living under 200, and it is necessary to understand that this is a huge market that has traditionally been ours. Of course, you can throw it all: the home, and wife, and children who lost a leg and an eye, and still continue to live. So it is here. We pull out of this situation alive, cholera will not, but we leave intact — no. Here are a big problem, and if we lose this market.
I am not a fatal rupture with Russia and Kazakhstan, I say that this is death, but it is a disaster, because if I want to expand the bike, I have to have a platform in a couple of meters. If I want to turn the car, should be a big playground. If I want to deploy the whole state, there is ground to a decade.
Estonia had 85 percent of exports to Russia, now has 15, but it unfolded 20 years. We have lost 20 years on various integration games and breaking glasses in the Kremlin. Now, no one is waiting for the broken glasses and waiting for the money. And there is no money because we have borrowed $ 25 billion. That's the situation. Everything can be sold, but for this we need to restructure the production of those goods which are in demand in the world market.