Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko says that after a month or two they forget about the problems with currency. Meanwhile, analysts say that the people have forgotten about the currency back in March, when the dollar and the euro have disappeared from the free sale. Representatives of the National Bank in mid-April, promised that in exchange the cash will be in May, when it promised Russian stabilization loan. However, after Moscow's refusal to fund the money-losing Belarusian economy financial outlook was very uncertain.
On the eve of Alexander Lukashenko promised to unleash the currency issue a maximum of two months. Many recalled that similar promises made head of the country before, but then appeared quite different terms — "week" and even "a few days". Now, having criticized "the fifth column" for the requirement of "reforms at the destruction," Lukashenko urged subordinates itself to earn currency, as do his countrymen from the farm "Alexandria" — say, the milk sold in Russia, received the Russian ruble and dispose of them as they want.
Many experts believe that the absolute refusal of Lukashenko reform means that either this month or in six months the situation has not changed. However, says financial analyst Ekaterina Smirnova, samaadhilenne authorities of the problem does not do them honor:
"Agree that many were mentally prepared for two or three weeks ago to the rate of 3500-3600 per dollar. And now these figures do not even say now and 4000 looks doubtful. Actually, there is no longer a matter of devaluation.
There already have to deal with the economy, and it is a question not so much of the National Bank. Of course, on the one hand, from the National Bank require any measures which lie outside its jurisdiction. After all, as I understand it, there is a general policy of the state, which holds all subordinate bodies. But the body can not be healthy even with all the healthy bodies, but a sick heart. Will either hurt the kidneys or liver, or something else. Therefore, we should all engage in general. "
Experts believe that the real shock to the Belarusian government was the decision of the Ministry of Finance of Russia refuse Belarus stabilization loan of $ 1 billion. The money the government was planning to patch the most critical holes in the budget, but now only remains that take advantage of the old council Lukashenko — even more belt-tightening. According to the head of the analytical center "Strategy" Leonid Zaika, such decisions are not made spontaneously, so Moscow, apparently waiting for the right moment to exchange the credit for something more substantial. According to the analyst, Lukashenko "pickle" that he agreed to any terms of Moscow:
"In general, almost all of the world, especially in strategic sectors, done either on Washington's terms or on terms Moscow. Even under the
Beijing still little what is being done. Minsk posture that is "nabychanaya" it may be, does not interest anybody. In Minsk, you can only hold 600 people who walk along the street. 89 or more specialists in the field of law enforcement, special forces, seven minutes can be injured. That's a record for around the world. And what is in the rest of Minsk? Is a small quantity bumps. Therefore in Belarus soon almost all very much change, if it is to go the way of the Kremlin wants. "
Expert Consultant Mieczyslaw Burak believes that the Belarusian actually buries the money in unprofitable areas of the economy that profit is not allowed, but eat up huge amounts of money. In his view, the "zero" on a global scale as the Belarusian economy should not exist:
"How can one Belarusian economy, which costs nothing, allow yourself to keep as much ballast? Try to calculate the proportion of
Belarusian economy in the world — I think, no you will not be able to calculate it. But she keeps MAZ, MTZ, then another, all sorts of "Integral" and a lot of other things that she currently holds. This keeps losing agriculture. And the argument in this case — we sell, we need a currency. Who needs a currency — I do not know, I need rubles. I possess for rubles bread, potatoes, and vodka. They, you know, need a currency. In fact, selling milk, machines and other three times cheaper than it costs to society. But for the currency. And then we do not give this currency. And we must write, because it is necessary to translate all the economic things political. "
The representatives of the banking sector is not excluded that the rate of the ruble against the U.S. dollar next week could rise to the level of five-thousandth While this figure is held on the figure of 4000, but only on the recommendation of the representatives of the National Bank, who asked not wait to return to work after illness chairman of Bank Piotr Prokopovich. However, experts believe that no personalities with their attempts to administrative intervention can not affect the objective processes in the country. Having lost confidence in the ruble and the entire financial system, in April, according to official data, the Belarusians have returned from foreign currency deposits of more than half a billion dollars.