The economy of rich countries is in poor condition: the patient still alive, but every day slabnet.
Since the beginning of the month of anxiety symptoms increased. America began to shake when one of the big rating agencies downgraded its assessment of creditworthiness. In a world of collapsing stock markets, while on some recorded the highest daily fall in the indices from 2008. In particular, the banking stocks have suffered, that in the monetary system is a sign of stress. It was then that the central banks intervened.
The fall of the stock market to a halt, but a new source of excitement was France. Although young economies continue to grow and are quite hard to ensure global growth pessimism, inspired by the situation in Europe and America, weary burden fell on the whole world.
Of course, this pessimism caused economic data, namely overseas. They are in the best case, indicate a very unhurried recovery. But still there is the specter of political risk. Investors who are in the period of 3 years distrusted politicians their business, now changed their minds. Baffling deal to raise the upper limit of the municipal debt, adopted by the U.S. Congress, and the failure of the euro zone to resolve their problem is not only bad for themselves by themselves. They hide behind politicians who either can not help or aggravate the situation further.
This frustration has an effect on the mood in the business. New barometer of the global economy — The Economist magazine conducted with the Financial Times survey of managers in the various countries of the world — indicates that the skeptics by 10.5% to quantify prevail over those who are waiting for improvement. This is very different from the optimistic results of a survey conducted in May. South American companies have been slow to invest their generous supplies of cash. While this is the last, central banks, even if all goes well, will be able to offer only some mitigating half measures.
The deterioration of the situation on the markets in the first half of August, of course, does not inspire belief, though no reason to panic. After the recovery of monetary downturns is progressing very slowly, because the private sector pays the debt. The bond market has long been resigned to that reality. Well, the South American economy still shows signs of life in July, was created 117 thousand jobs — not pretty, but it does not talk about the recession.
But the threat of a new slide into stagnation for America and other countries of the world is fully secured by real. The cause of the problem on both sides of the Atlantic of the ordinary: it is very much debt and not enough political will to cope with their consequences. This is where the hidden danger!
In the euro zone debt poruhi, which began in small peripheral countries, is now much more impressed Spain, Italy, and maybe France. Usually, the crisis has stalled after another critical summit last month, but continued in even worse shape, it became clear that not all politicians have made and left the banking system as a threat. Immediately in Washington during the break between the disputes and quarrels, they still delayed default, raising the upper limit of the municipal debt law, which has two shortcomings: it has kept the temporary tax relief during this time when the economy needs money and failed to reduce medium-term shortage. Hence — fully justified lowering the credit rating.
What's in a position to do the central banks? In Europe, the ECB intervention, of course, had the effect of where it was needed: the yield on Spanish and Italian bonds fell again to 5%. The president of the institution, Jean-Claude Trichet would have acted wisely, if carelessly dropped the previously inflated rate: inflation in the euro area has slowed down, it has to slow down and then parallel to slow the growth of food prices. But the stakes are low, and the ECB does not want to get involved more deeply in the fiscal sphere, greedy bonds at the expense of the state budget. On the ocean side of the head of the Federal reserve system, Ben Bernanke should have loaf of buying bonds issued for just a means.
Reversal to Barack, Angela and C °
The great danger that can come from the activity of the central bank — a moral one. It can allow governments to relax and let someone else do the work that they feel very weighty. It is at once terrifying and disclaimer, and a missed opportunity.
South american Congress should force yourself to give and fiscal support in the short term (extending the temporary reduction of the tax on the wage fund and unemployment insurance), and a reliable medium-term plan to reduce the budget deficit through tax reform and social configurations in payments. To do this, there are projects drawn up by representatives of both parties. Obama and his Republican opponents have opened the door to such an amazing deal and earlier. A new committee to reduce the shortage of offers yet another opportunity. Cynics they say it is naive to lay on something significant to the U.S. presidential election in 2012, and even more serious to think as if investors can fend off bad legislation to raise the upper limit of the municipal debt.
Before even more difficult choice will stand the European favorites: either the destruction of the euro zone, or a rather small fiscal alliance. The salvation of a single currency will claim to a greater reserve of supplies than the area can currently sustain. Smarter, from an economic point of view, the way out would be able to issue Eurobonds, which collectively would provide all members of the euro zone. It would be a big political solution, not the deals, which is passed through a dark secret from the progress of European voters. If I had done so, it would assist to bring the saga to end. Again, from the standpoint of politics, it's hard, but German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, there are not many options.
The poor standard of Baksova
Shaken faith in the "green" lowering the credit of trust?
"The United States, under the force of its own to pay at least some debt, because we can always print money" — said the head of the last Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, after rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit rating of America. Usually in connection with such statements on Zimbabwe comes to mind. As demonstrated by the unfortunate African Republic, all still there is a limit to which the government is able to print bank notes: while economy become a victim of hyperinflation.
But in Zimbabwe, it has already passed. As the data Economist Intelligense Unit, this year's average inflation there is only 5.5%. As a kind of magic was likely? The switch to Bucks The United States as the main currency. Let America, it has lost its own the highest rating in the three "A", but the Bucks, who produces it, "will remain the main international reserve currency at least what the likely course of events," — says John Chambers of Standard & Poor's.
Zimbabwe — one of the 66 states, not including the United States itself, which (according to the latest IMF estimates), or fled to the dollar as a legitimate means of payment, or tied a course to their own currencies, or use it as a model for the exchange rate. The only rival to this day, "green", the euro, which has the smallest field of influence, which has only 25 "fans" outside the zone actually 17 states.
66 members Baksova unit have a combined GDP of almost $ 9 trillion, or about 14% of the world economy. The list goes small fry like the islands of Saint Kitts and Nevis, a few states with a huge population of Bangladesh, and economic middleweight somehow Saud
i Arabia. This group includes both allies such as Qatar — and the rebels, and such as Venezuela, which despises the South American imperialism, even when rents own monetary sovereignty the U.S. central bank.
But unfortunately, not all that great in Baksova block. In the past year, the average rate of inflation in the middle of it was 5.6%. This year it may reach an average of nearly 8%.
Naikrupneyshim member of the unit is, of course, China, which does not allow the yuan to own to make sudden movements with respect to the "green". China's dreams of developing their own cash reserve. Many countries hold the renminbi in mind, because they can not afford to lose competitiveness themselves, having such a large exporter. The analysis carried out by 3 economists from the National Institute of municipal money and politics to divide indicates that the currency is the Middle Kingdom has already perceptible impact up to 33 others.
Another economy, sandwiched between the block and the possible Baksova yuan — is Hong Kong. Linking it to the "green" (with the help of monetary committee) saw a fully viable, when the yuan was also confined to the South American money. But now, as he says goodbye to the bucks, Hong Kong is torn in two. Already there have been calls to recognize Yuan legitimate means of payment, along with Hong Kong dollars. But the management of the country in no hurry to make any moves in this direction. It fears that the debate on the nominations South American money will undermine their credibility. Binding to the buck, "Hong Kong has served a good anchor for monetary and monetary stability since 1983" — the chairman of the Money Management Norman Chan after U.S. credit rating downgrade by S & P.
Fidelity buck should not be taken as a tribute, even where he is most deserving. August 10 Zimbabwean newspaper Newsday imbued matter if it is time to "get rid" of him, that, along with him and did not get a South American macroeconomic sore. Some believe that the South African Rand may be the best candidate. U.S. dollar remains the main currency in the world. But there can not be a good sign that even Zimbabweans are considered by some candidates.
One of the richest men in America Warren Buffett to solve problems with the lack of growth of the municipal budget and the U.S. debt has the power to raise taxes for the rich. "Most of the rich countries receiving the bulk of the proceeds of vkladyvatelnyh deals, pay to the state treasury income tax of 15%, while the middle-class has to count 15-25% of the income of their own," — says Buffett fiscal injustice of the American way.