Geophysics can not yet be predicted seismic forecast — scientist

Geophysics can not yet be predicted "seismic forecast"The present state of seismological science does not allow scientists to give short-term earthquake prediction, as weather forecasts, which could serve as a guide for authorities and businessmen, told RIA Novosti, Alexei Zavyalov Professor, Head of Laboratory of continental seismicity and seismic hazard forecasting the Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS named Schmidt .

"The current state of science on the nature of earthquakes has not reached a level to give a cost-effective forecasts", — said the source.

He explained that the economic sense are short-term forecasts, when the date of occurrence of a hazardous event is defined clearly enough. In this case, you can take immediate action. If the forecast is "spread" for years, this is not possible, we can only consider these data in the construction.

According to him, seismologists know a range of features, with which you can theoretically predict earthquakes, but their "sbyvaemost" is extremely low, and the use of such forecasts will bring great economic losses.

"If we are told to give all the data that we have, we give a forecast once — the authorities evacuated people, stop the dangerous production, block the pipelines, shut off the light, and the event does not happen, then the second time, third time, in the end it will refuse from these forecasts, "- said.

Who is the most important prognosticator?

Professor wary of claims that the earthquake in Japan was predicted for many years. "When there are such statements from people with advanced degrees, I get the impression that people want to acquire the glory of the forecaster," — said Zavyalov.

So seismologist comment on reports that a Russian scientist — head of the laboratory of Regional Geology and Tectonophysics Pacific Oceanological Institute, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences Valery Abramov — predicted the disastrous earthquake in Japan on March 11 in 1997. According to Abramov, his forecast was published in the journal "Proceedings of the UNESCO Club of professor."

Professors' Club of Vladivostok, created in 1994 by the then rector of the Far Eastern Technical University, and later received the status of UNESCO Club. Club members read popular lectures, and publish a journal, which publishes articles prepared on the basis of these lectures.

According to Abramov, he predicted in 2011 an earthquake of 10 points in the Kanto region, the most densely populated region of Japan, where, in particular, the capital city of Tokyo. March 11 earthquake occurred in the ocean, 129 kilometers east of the city of Sendai in Miyagi prefecture north and 373 kilometers north of Tokyo.

Zavyalov said he did not know about the forecast, which did Abramov, in particular, how these data have been obtained, that it talked about the place, time and magnitude of the impacts.

Forecast as economic weapon

Interviewee noted that the prediction of earthquakes should be treated with extreme caution. "Every forecast should be discussed primarily in the circles of the scientific community. In the institution where he worked on the scientific council. If the Academic Council deems it necessary, it shall then send to the Academy of Sciences, which can then pass this manual MOE" — said he said.

Zavyalov said that in Russia there is expert advice on earthquake prediction, which collects the "applications" on the forecast, and then transmits the data in the RAS, and in the Russian Emergencies Ministry. He sharply negatively assessed attempts to pass such predictions in the media prior to verification.

"This is especially important if the forecast data going to the territory of another state, when you consider that most of the predictions is not justified. Careless forecasts can cause losses in the economy of, and will be an international scandal. Such precedents are" — he said.

Seismic climate weather and seismic

According Zavyalov, scientists can now confident enough to provide long-term and medium-term forecasts, but the question of short-term forecasts is not going.

"We can predict earthquakes or tremors of the earthquake in decades to come, we can define a" seismic climate. "We may, in accordance with the climate to design and build facilities. This has become practical," — he said.

In addition, there are medium-term forecasts of earthquakes for a period of up to five years to ten years. To get this number of algorithms based on the set of features-precursors.

"Using these algorithms, we can predict the place, time and the force of the earthquake. Approximately 60-80% of large earthquakes occur in the time frame and in a location corresponding to these forecasts," — said the source.

In particular, he noted that in Russia in the next few years, predicted the earthquake in the south of Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands in the south. However, he said, the earthquake prediction, like the weather forecast in the coming years will not be able to get.

Unique in the world successful short-term forecast earthquake in China was given in 1975. This happened in Haychen, where the day before a major earthquake in the area seismologists recorded a large number of earthquake precursors: increased tremors, loss of water in the wells, the strange behavior of animals.

Chinese seismologists have ventured to give a short-term forecast. They alert five times, people leave their homes, but only the fifth time the earthquake actually occurred.

People are not ruining zamlya, and water and fire

Zavyalov noted that Japan has made great strides in earthquake-resistant construction, and in the earthquake, these buildings have proved effective. However, the authorities of the country, according to him, have not considered the full tsunami threat.

"The Japanese did not die from collapsing buildings, they were killed by the fact that the tsunami came. Japanese authorities made a strategic error by continuing to build on the coast. Of the earthquake can be saved, if properly built. Tsunami protect themselves from possible" — said Zavyalov.

Other catastrophic earthquake in Japan's history — an earthquake in the Japanese city of Kobe in 1995 — also in itself did not cause significant damage to buildings. Most of the houses in the city were designed to tremors up to 8 points, most of the buildings survived, but because of the numerous faults in fires began: almost all of Kobe burned and there was a lot of sacrifice.

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