Bummer with the Russian loan allows a new look at the situation, which hit Belarus after December 19.
If the U.S. and the EU have reacted sharply to the post-election crackdown, stopped the dialogue between the official Minsk and the West, many media reported that the situation has returned two years ago, before August 2008. That is a familiar scheme: a conflict with Western countries, the friendship with Russia.
Externally, it looks really alike. But as you know, history does not repeat itself, you can not enter the same river twice.
I want to remind you that the policy dialogue with the EU, balancing between Russia and Europe began after, How to change Moscow's position on the Belarusian issue. As a result, oil and gas war at the turn of 2006-2007, it became clear that Russia is not only in words but in deeds committed itself to a significant reduction in subsidies to Belarus. And for the sake of the Belarusian social model needed new points of support, new sources of credit and investment, without which the economy can not keep up to par. And for thawing relations with the West had to release political prisoners and hold the presidential election campaign in a new, more liberal format. Also after 2007 intensified relations with China, Venezuela.
But the current conflict between Belarus and the West does not mean automatically that improved relations between Minsk and Moscow. They are the same tense conflict. Return to full-scale subsidization of the Belarusian economy, as it was before 2007,
Russia is not going to. A vector in the absence of a European policy of Minsk allows Moscow to more effectively achieve its goals in Belarus. And testified that the situation with the credit. You can also note: to avoid dialogue with the West, the current situation in the Belarusian economy could be formed only two years ago.
As for the current situation with the credit. Apparently, the first Russia was going to highlight all of the Belarus $ 3 billion it had requested. This is evidenced by a fairly positive statement to that effect and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, and Russian Ambassador Alexander Surikov. Even more optimistic look no comments Belarusian officials. The parties allegedly discussed the stimulus package offered by the Government of Belarus, and publicly promised that within 2-3 weeks, with the credit issue is resolved.
Against this background, Kudrin's statement looks sensational. So what happened? On what stumbled allies?
Obviously, Belarus failed to meet some conditions that put Russia. Publicly, the mouth of the Russian Federation Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin spoke only of the need to develop a program of anti-crisis reforms in the Belarusian economy. It is unlikely for this issue could be big differences.
Most likely, the two sides did not find agreement in question
privatization of Belarusian enterprises of the Russian capital. Although it is not publicly exposed as a condition of granting the loan, but some indirect evidence that this particular issue has become a major obstacle in the negotiations.
Back in February, visiting Minsk, Putin said the merger KAMAZ and MAZ into one holding a decided issue. But then Lukashenko denied this. May 5, talks between the leadership of KAMAZ and MAZ, but, apparently, they ended inconclusively.
Delivering a message to the National Assembly, Lukashenko has expressed skepticism about the privatization. As usual, he said that he can not give away public property. In response, the Russian Ambassador Alexander Surikov even entered into a dispute with the Belarusian leader.
And Kudrin said a statement on May 11, said, that Belarus to privatize a number of objects that are of interest of foreign investors, and it would get about $ 2 billion from privatization.
Thus, Russia claimed credit for the Belarusian enterprises. Lukashenko has not yet agreed. How long can he resist? As long as the currency crisis to erupt into social.