On these and other issues in the transmission of "Examination of Freedom" answer, of Warsaw — Wojciech Boroditš-Smolinsky, member of the board of the Foundation "Center for International Relations," and from Minsk — political scientist, deputy editor of "Belgazeta" Victor Martinovich.
"Europe will think that these sanctions do not have a blow to the whole of society"
Tsigankov: It is possible to assume that the European institutions have begun peraasensovvats their attitude towards the effectiveness of sanctions and visa are ready to move on to economic sanctions?
Boroditš-Smolinsky: I think that the situation is indeed changing. But the problem is that the EU has not yet decided the extent to which these sanctions are administered. There is a debate about whether to impose sanctions on the whole of Belarus, to give some companies against whom sanctions. And, I think, are now inclined, it is better not to impose sanctions against the entire state, and to introduce them against specific companies or individuals that strongly tied to the current government.
Tsigankov: You could say that Europe is inclined to the American version?
Boroditš-SmolinskyYes, it can be compared. Especially now everyone knows that now the situation in Belarus is very simple. So Europe will think that these sanctions are a blow to the whole society, and will seek sanctions to punish specific firms.
This approach can be called to U.S. position. But the EU needs more time to understand the various tools and make a joint decision. After all, it's 27 different states.
"Barroso my personal reasons help to make a proposal for sanctions was"
Tsigankov: I recall that immediately after the events of December 19, when various European institutions began to discuss the Belarusian issue, most analysts agree that the EU will not make economic sanctions. Can we say that it is no longer as straightforward axiom?
Martinovic: As long as it's only MPs suggest economic sanctions. This, however, does not mean that the executive structure clearly go for it. You can, of course, be noted that Jose Manuel Barroso, my personal reasons contribute to the fact that the proposal passed. However, recent years usually been the case that MEPs do a pretty harsh statements, and executive structures take quite soft footsteps. And this is understandable.
So I would not undertake now predict that European sanctions will be endorsed by the European leading institutions. Maybe there will be some very point, decorative arrangements. However, some of the painful consequences, such as curbing exports of refined petroleum products from Belarus — too early to speak.
Tsigankov: Let me remind you, however, that on 11 May the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton said that the only possible response to the actions of the European Union Alexander Lukashenko is the imposition of severe sanctions against him and members of his regime. True, she did not say — "economic sanctions", but Ashton is just a representative of the executive branch itself.
Martinovic: Yes. But you rightly pointed out that she was not talking about economic sanctions. And even if she says economic sanctions, will need to carefully review what it will be sanctions, or they somehow affect the relations between Europe and Minsk.
Meanwhile in Europe, there is a feeling that we must somehow react to savagery taking place in Belarus in Belarusian courts. However, understanding how to react in such a way to stop it, yet.
Resolution of the European Parliament and the statements of Ashton suggests that the EU considers it necessary to do something fundamental. And it really is in the air. After all, if you watch these sentences, the Europeans want anyone to do anything.
"But now, the regime understands that any money from Europe do not get"
TsigankovViktor Martinovich already identified the main problem, which now overshadows the Belarusian-Russian relations — repression after December 19. As the official Minsk against the sentences of exhibition space implies establish relations with Europe? Why the Belarusian authorities behaves, what logic is guided by the official Minsk?
Boroditš-Smolinsky: It's hard to say which is guided by the logic of the "official Minsk" because it is the logic of a man who runs this country. Sometimes it is very difficult to say what is in his head sits, and why it is so and not otherwise.
It would seem that the relations between Belarus and Europe should be developed and improved. But we see that in reality, the Belarusian authorities to do everything possible to stop the normalization of relations with the EU. Here, you can ask another question — why Belarus should excite cooperation with Europe?
Tsigankov: I can try to answer this question — why Minsk Europe. First, in order to offset the influence of Moscow. And, secondly, for economic reasons, for technology import and export. If the U.S. imposed economic sanctions, the trade turnover between the two countries fell by 4 times. If this happens with the EU, it will be a disaster for the Belarusian economy.
Boroditš-Smolinsky: The problem is that the deepening of relations between Minsk and Europe leads to a change in attitudes among the nomenclature and general population. These attitudes create doubts, the correct structure of power in Belarus, or the right leader.
If the President is fixed on to show that Belarus is a threat to what everyone wants it to break between the East and the West, then it is easier to manage. And this is important A better relationship with Europe brings questions about the system of government, its effectiveness. If such a relationship will be at a minimum, these issues should not occur en masse.
Tsigankov: That is the deepening of relations with Europe is dangerous, but the breach carries certain risks?
Boroditš-Smolinsky: The regime should balance out. But now, the regime understands that any money from Europe do not get it. And even if there were such opportunities, that, first, it will not be quick money, and second, it will not be money that can be put in the pockets of officials.
TsigankovViktor, your explanation of the current actions of the authorities. Why do they continue to put participants Square, realizing that it worsens with every sentence with Europe?
"The feeling is that Lukashenko shoved towards Russia"
MartinovicVitaly, you partially answered that question when he made the remark that the European direction was needed Minsk to supratsvazhyts his Russian. But now the Russian vector declared dominant. The feeling is that Lukashenko went for broke with Russia. He behaves as if everything else that does not apply
to relations between Minsk and Moscow, no longer matters.
I think Lukashenko hopes that after the establishment of a common customs space if vznovyatstsa preferential supply of oil will earn on a new environment, everything in the economy is fixed. And here is the sole partner of Russia. All done — had a falling out with the neighbors. But we can see that the results of this will not be that confirms Putin's statement.
And I think at some point Lukashenko understands that it is the only way to interact effectively with Russia — is to have some trump cards as well as European course. But as long as he continues to go for broke, turning away with his back to Europe and the Europeans call the goats.
Tsigankov: Maybe Lukashenko believes he can always expand back to its relations with Europe? He also said recently that no Rubicon in its relations with Europe, he has not passed.
Martinovic: Maybe a bug Europeans is that they are too pleased with the Belarusian side lunges. And this attitude has created a situation where the Belarusian side believes that "whistle" Barroso can call and say, "Okay, this peck Russia, now we'll be with you." It may, indeed, a sense that Europe is perceived as a partner ready for anything — it can be traced. "