After two months of experimenting with the foreign exchange rate of the National Bank actually surrendered, agreeing to a devaluation. However, an instantaneous effect of a 30 percent adpuskanne ruble has not yet given — to buy the currency at the new rate can not be the same as the old. Experts are convinced that radical steps need to be done much earlier. Now, people will expect further depreciation of the ruble and the money in banks will not suffer.
From now on, the National Bank lifted restrictions on the definition of banks courses purchase and sale of foreign currency in transactions with the public, previously set at plus or minus 2% from the official rate.
Most of the commercial banks was late liberalization clearly reacted instantly, appreciating dollar near 4000 rubles. State banking institutions have taken a pause. As of mid-day on May 11, they worked on the course, a little more than 3,000 rubles per dollar. However, neither the first nor the second case in the U.S. has increased not freely available. A dozen calls to banks, which put up a new course of dollar sales for 4000 rubles, the answer in all cases I got about the same:
"Bank" Moscow-Minsk ", good day … I'm sorry, but in the free market exchange is not …".
Experts are convinced that in a situation of apparent mistrust on the part of both entities, and ordinary citizens in the financial system, which has shown its nerazvarotlivasts and zaadministravanasts, the measures of the National Bank will be very cold comfort. First of all, because, according to economist Ivan Antashkevich that they are made very late. If in March could escape the devaluation of 15-20%, now salvation is unlikely to be his 50-percent depreciation:
"Everything will depend on how you will react to the parties concerned, because really there is a course in 5200 rubles per dollar, and more. Why he does not depreciate further? In any case, I believe, distrust of the financial system is enormous. In Basically, they have nothing now to do but something to adjust administratively, but drastic measures are not needed now, but a month ago. A better way to have started to do something at all in March. So I do not have any optimism in this regard, because the situation is very bad. Given and the fact that Russia did not give the alleged $ 3 billion from the fund of the Eurasian Economic Community, and only half a billion. Where else sources? quickly deploy business and other initiatives here can not export there, so it's a difficult thing. That backlog problems nedarefarmavanaya country. Rather, darefarmavalisya to what have come to the point with which, by and large, it all begins. "
The National Bank said they will not sell the currency to banks exchangers, because I do not want to strip the gold reserves. However, as the head of a group of analysts portal infobank.by Ekaterina Smirnova, hoping that people will rush to pass on higher currency exchange rate, as it is not necessary. If a month ago 3,500 rubles to the dollar seemed a good option, the current 4000 heartedly do not cause:
"The moment that the ruble was released for the cash market, probably something and decide, but in reality it would be necessary, of course, do it earlier and had to radically change the whole policy of the economy. However, it is good though, yeah, well, that even now … . "
Reporter: "Do you think that will carry all the people its currency to the banks, or hope that the exchange rate will fall further?".
"Donating dollars? Why? There still looking forthan people those dollars are kept, it is necessary to understand the logic of action. When a person has a dollar or the euro, and it keeps them in their savings, then perhaps now nestsisya and change them into rubles quite imprudent. Why? To put in the bank for deposit? I doubt it. That is the logic in such activities I do not see at all. And considering all tuzanni that were in the last 2-3 months, while normal people will want to see how it all will end. "
At the same time, as they say visitors exchangers are queues willing to buy the currency at the new rate. Cashiers explain what will sell the currency, which during the day someone will hand. Thus, in the scheme of currency exchange almost nothing has changed.
Meanwhile the National Bank continues to believe that the reason for the deficit was the currency of the population increased demand for cash dollars and euros for the purchase of cars in front of the manifold increase in duties on cars. This, by the way, recently spoke and Alexander Lukashenko — say, the people themselves raked exchangers of all cash. Now, according to the National Bank, the same active purchase of foreign exchange for the creation of savings is meaningless.