Prices go to heaven

Prices go to heavenCompleted the first decade of the last summer month — ahead of September 1, which in the near future in Russia is due not only far from the days of celebration of knowledge, and with the usual increase in prices. Analysts in the field of economy they say that the September 1, 2012 is not an exception in terms of another inflation heating up, with all this higher inflation growth projected in the food sector, and this is associated growth with the price of grain.

The fact that the first year the Ministry of Agriculture predicted yield of grain in the season at 94-95 million tonnes, which would correspond to the all-time high soon. But a string of natural disasters in the set and whose extensive flooding in the Kuban region, brought not a good adjustment to the level of grain yield of the standard of this year. Now the Ministry of Agriculture in the person's own control Nikolai Fedorov predicts the final charges will be 75-80 million tons. These characteristics, the assurances of the ministry does not give a reason for some concern in terms of lack of grain in Russia and the need to introduce an embargo on grain exports. But farmers are concerned that the government is not going to support the grain market through centralized procurement interventions, as it was during the last part of the Cabinet of Ministers. Segodnyaschy policy of the Government is, that once again allow themselves to farmers using market instruments to bring their products to these or other markets, as it was before the intervention policy on the part of the country.

No need to be a professional economist to realize that the words "the use of market-based instruments" and is the main reason the likely increase in grain prices, and the means and the finished products from different types of grains. Farmers will try to bring products to the currently applicable criteria, but all of these mediators would negate the aspirations, again offering penny cost and clocked up its own "orphan" intermediary percent. We can only carry out the calculations, what will be the increase in prices, and how much it will knock on the wallet of the average Russian.

On this account there is subsequent judgment on the economic professionals. Guided already an accomplished increase in bread prices in those regions where the grain company is already over (south of, certain regions of the Volga region), they (the experts) say that the average price increase could be around 10%. But it must not be forgotten that in some Russian regions, the fields are particularly affected by drought, floods or pest infestations can occur grain shortage. For obvious reasons, such a trend could lead to an increase in the price of bread on a scale exceeding those specified as 10%.

It would seem that 10% — not such a transcendental number, but the difficulty lies in the fact that in RF though any rise in price of grain, as well as higher prices of fuel, is capable of a locomotive to prices of other foods and products. For example, if the price of bread slowly, but will crawl up correctly, you should wait for a rise in price of meat and dairy products. Of course, the addition of vectors of inflation on goods supply first hardest knocks on such segments of the population, as representatives of the economical sphere and the elderly. If we consider that the first of July in the Russian Federation was conducted increase in utility prices, the total burden of price growth in recent months can be really good for a weary third of the population.

By the way, it is necessary to see that because we happened that record yields can not stabilize the situation with rising prices. The lack of grain — of course, bad, but, surprisingly, his over — again bad. With a shortage of grain is difficult to provide a cheap and high-quality food population (necessary to introduce an embargo on exports, increase imports of grain), but with surplus — other poruha: not enough storage facilities that meet the standards. In the 2nd case the excess grain or throw rots in granaries with slender roofs, though not to reduce the cost, or fed to cattle (or one or the other).

Chairman of the Russian Grain Union Arkady Zlochevsky decided to appease the Russians and said that there were no concerns about the severe price increases grain and its probable shortage in the country should not be. According Zlochevskiy, we use even less than the produce, and this is a good bag. In other words, it appears that if the rate of use in food products RF in the coming years will increase (say, due to population growth), the cereal alliance is no longer a guarantee that he could … With all this sovereign Zlochevskiy argues that even if food prices and rise, the increase will occur not because of domestic natural anomalies (droughts and floods), and because of the negative weather causes in the United States.

This once again confirms that the Russian food market in a severe degree is dependent on foreign supplies of goods supply, and adjust the level of domestic prices of their instruments, we, unfortunately, can not. The fact, of course, sad, but having a place to be.

In this regard, Russian Government (Ministry of Agriculture and first) developed program from 2015, according to which the fraction of imported food products in the Russian market (meat, fruit, vegetables) should be kept to a minimum. But here comes another question that abuts the entry of Russia into the World Trading Company. The question is this: will we be well with you so just turn away from the west entrance of the products after Russia into the WTO? Can it repeat Ukrainian situation where national agricultural sphere almost eaten foreign companies flooded the market with their products?

In such a situation, if you really our homeland, and aims at joining the WTO, the need to significantly upgrade the legislation protecting the Russian manufacturer. If no legislation recently formed is not, then we will have a long time to respond to the drought in the United States even more painful than to own agricultural problems …

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