State media quoted anonymous bank sources report: After the abolition of mandatory for banks to bind to the official exchange rate has increase and the purchase and sale of foreign currency in the exchange. Argues that the very next day after the "revolutionary solutions" National Bank to the volume of transactions with cash up to 70%. An unnamed informants claim that this figure will only grow. Meanwhile, independent experts say that the propaganda, without any confirmation of positive developments in the foreign exchange market, just trying to calm the nervous badly tarnished the Belarusians.
Now in Belarus operate in parallel, at least four exchange rates. The official, defined by the National Bank, which is insignificant than 3,000 rubles to the dollar and limited the walls of this financial institution. The course of commercial banks, at the request of the National Bank jointly fixed at 4,000 rubles. The course Interbank exchange, which has reached almost 100 percent devaluation in comparison with the official — 6000 rubles per dollar. Finally, a course that is offered on the black market currency dealers — up to 4,500 rubles per dollar.
Although the authorities have promised a quick unification of exchange rate change, analysts do not hide the skepticism about the possibility to do it without urgent reforms. Says economist Boris Zheliba:
"This is another promise that just about everything will work out. Nothing will improve by itself. Only thing there is, and it is the opinion of all the economists: it is necessary to give up and get out of the set of courses possible probably the single rate. I can not speak to the accuracy of information regarding the growth of the number of operations at exchange points, but I know from the comments of real observers: in exchange situation has not changed with the introduction of the course in 4000 rubles per dollar, which recommended that commercial banks National Bank. The situation is the same. People do not sit by the currency exchange rate, as it is low. This is NOT the equilibrium exchange rate. That is, the overall situation is the same. Well, maybe some progress is because the 4000 is better, as was 3100, and people are not a good life and give up. But the overall picture is old — in the open market the dollar or euro will not buy. "
Belarusian leadership still hopes to external infusion. However, such opportunities corridor is rapidly shrinking. Says Doctor of Economic Sciences Vladimir Kulazhenko, The West does not want to help a regime that ignores human rights, and Russia is willing to lend to the economy losing nominal ally only in exchange for long-term commercial interests
"Belarus is in a very difficult economic situation. For example, as soon as Portugal has to face certain difficulties, she immediately issued 78 billion euro loan. So let's say the rescue. A West denies us with good reason, Russia — holds, does not want to give to We finally pressed. because I believe that the loan will not let us. See, when Kudrin said that such a possibility is not even considered, so it is generally awful. Where an ultimatum where blackmail, but it seems to want to remove strategic areas. least Moscow is clearly aimed at. When taken away the most attractive companies that feed our people, then what will be done? Once again we are in the empire. Why, of course, did not want to … ".
Meanwhile "Belarusbank" corrected the earlier intention of giving a cheap currency to certain categories of citizens who are in dire need. Currency will be sold on a separate line if the base — the death of close relatives abroad, support people with disabilities, treatment and training. But whereas it was about the currency at the official exchange rate, the explanation for this opportunity today fully admyatae — to the said target currency will be sold at the current rate "Belarusbank", which is on May 14 of 4000 rubles per dollar. Thus, the official exchange rate is only valid for the purchase of energy and medicine. However, according to the economist Victor Tereshchenko, such proximity to cheap resources gives rise to dubious financial schemes:
"You look at what is happening in pharmacies. Shove there nonsense. Given that we have a normal Belarusian goods, enough good drugs, but the most common slip garbage. And then it does not pay attention to health, although a lot of it with a different crowd saying. fact it is necessary at all costs to acquire by tender, taking under this cheap currency.'s why hits the shelves any suspicious products. Rest assured themselves they will provide quality drugs, and people throw cheaper, which passed through tender, well, mediocre, obscure manufacturers. And we're talking about medicine! ".
As predicted by analysts, financial problems boomerang will hook all the people of Belarus. The Ministry of Economy has removed restrictions on trade margins on a variety of foods, including meats, fish, cheese, salt, meat, offal, imported fruits, etc. That is, the already considerable numbers on the price tags will grow even more.