Scientist, Ph.D. in Geology and Mineralogy of the FBI named Kant Gennady Anosov predicted the occurrence of aftershocks.
Should I worry about the people of Kaliningrad that the earthquake in 2004 again? The answer to this question is known Gennady Anosov, candidate of geological-mineralogical sciences, which for more than forty years of scholarly work in the Far East. He is the author of numerous scientific papers and new techniques. Two years ago Gennady works in Kaliningrad
Destruction in 2004, there could be more
— Kaliningrad in the Soviet era had their service monitoring seismic activity — said Gennady. — It is believed that the region-quite active seismically and intensities here — less than five. However, the earthquake in 2004 showed that the numbers in Kaliningrad — at least 6 to 7-minute scores. No significant damage was not only because of the quake was short — just a few seconds. However, were damaged 1046 houses and buildings, and the damage is estimated to be worth up to 100 million rubles. If quake lasted 10-15 seconds, the scale of destruction would have been different.
— Gennady Ivanovich, how is it that you became "chief seismologist" of the western region of the country?
— After the events of September 2004 University of Kant on the initiative of the faculty dean, Professor Vladimir Eaglet in the national project "Education" purchased three seismic stations, but it just keeps the equipment in the department. A couple of years ago for family reasons I moved to Kaliningrad and at the end of June 2008 came to work at the Department of Geography and Geo RSU. And here is my long experience geophysics, who worked in the seismic areas of Sakhalin and Kamchatka, was in demand.
By the end of March 2009 I, along with two young faculty members, Dmitry Sotnikov and Vsevolod Chugaevichem managed with strong organizational support associate dean of the faculty, Associate Professor Irina Volkova complete commissioning of the three stations (one of them put the Geophysical Service of Russian Academy of Sciences in December of 2004) and start the recording and processing of seismic information online on-line. Our stations can receive seismic data from different regions of the Earth. In real time, these materials are sent to the Internet Information Processing Center, Geophysical Service of Russian Academy of Sciences (Obninsk).
By the way, in Königsberg was the seismic station in the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Albertina. She worked from 1911's to 1945, and I believe that we have restored the historical tradition. But the German archives have been lost, and we have not been able to find them.
Why the Germans did not build high-rise buildings
— What are the first results?
— We are monitoring the situation all year and a half, but some conclusions can already do. For example, we understand why the Germans did not build in Königsberg too tall buildings: there are very poor soils. This means that the construction of "high-rise" without conducting seismic work — waste of money.
In addition, there was discovered a large underground fault. It takes place in the area of housing on the University of RSU and ends at the coast. The probability that at any point of the fault can happen fairly strong earthquake is large enough. Weak earthquakes in the region occur almost constantly. This is good. Energy for large fluctuations not time to accumulate. Released in small doses. However, confidence in the fact that it will always be no.
— How much can be the next earthquake?
— It is highly probable that it will be more intense than in 2004. Commission of experts of the Academy of Sciences of Russia and the Federal seismic service recommended to administrators of technical certification of the housing stock as well as the buildings were built without regard to actual intensities of the region.
Together with specialists from design institutes of the city we also ask about the service, which would determine the quality of construction in Kaliningrad as a "weakly seismically active region." It is necessary to develop new territorial building codes. It is well known that in Königsberg were buildings that survived the bombing, because they had a seismic zone.
— And the construction of Baltic NPP seismic activity in the region accounted for?
— According to the requirements of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) for the three years prior to the construction of nuclear power plants in the future must be set at least three seismic stations to study the seismic background. But this builders BNPP was not fulfilled. Seismic background did not really understood, but the construction is already under way: impaired balance geotechnical geological environment, and how to behave in the Earth's crust after the beginning of the station is unknown.
I want to give an example. At the power plant stood seven seismic stations, including the control of dams and hydroelectric power stations, six of which are eliminated Chubais. A few days before the accident started to record the frequency of the station, which was a signal to malfunction turbines. If to the information seismologists accident could have been prevented.
About the apocalypse in 2012
— How do you assess the seismic situation in the world?
— A lot of horror stories. And one of them — the apocalypse 2012. Then there will be a parade of planets (Saturn, Jupiter, Mars and Earth line up in a row), which, according to some forecasters, can lead to a global catastrophe …
I think that if all of the predictions to extract the square root and divide that number by four, it will be true. Seismic activity on the planet during the parade of planets will rise sharply — a scientifically established fact. But there is an inaccuracy all believe that everything will happen December 28, 2012, but it is not. Our environment — inertia, and earthquakes will begin only after some time — in 2013. By the way, the Bible recorded many catastrophes that Earth has experienced and is experiencing.
Earthquake in 2013 will be no stronger than those we already had. For example, in 1960 in Chile — with intensity up to 9-10. There is a connection between the magnitude and length of the fault. If the depth of the epicenter, such that cover the entire layer of the Earth above the fireplace, on the surface cracks. In the Kaliningrad region, in the village Veselovka there fault length of 400 meters, which was formed in the second jolt to a depth of 10-12 km. Fault during an earthquake in Alaska in 1964 was 1 100 kilometers — there fell through homes and cars.
— We can predict where they will be the main event?
— I think that even now, seismologists can identify areas of future earthquakes. There are seismic gaps where there were earthquakes, and then for a long time there was nothing. Such gaps in the Kuril-Kamchatka arc Academician SA Fedorov has allocated 12. I think that in 2013 there will be fluctuations and may form large fault. Also available are powerful events in Indonesia.
When there was a parade of planets in 1980, I worked in Sakhalin. And then European scientists say that the island will go under water. To stop the panic, by the decision of the authorities, members of the Institute of Geophysics and Marine Geology of the Academy of Sciences visited the island for more than twenty companies — we talked to people about what will happen.
We also warned the administration of the island, which is the northern Sakhalin should build buildings, designed for eight points. But these warnings were not taken into account. And when there was an earthquake, many buildings collapsed.
We can not prevent earthquakes Earth — it is a living organism, and we can not stop her hesitation. But the state is able to prevent the death and destruction, as they do in Japan and other civilized countries.