Society answers these questions Preygerman economist Eugene, Youth Coordinator Discussion Club "Liberal Club".
Tsigankov: What are the problems of currency crisis agreed to the decision of the National Bank, and which — left?
Preygerman: In fact, it is the unofficial devaluation, which was to be held yesterday. This is a step in the direction of market regulation kursavtvarennya, and that's fine.
On the other hand, the currency remains unavailable. Incidentally, I expect that such a move will be made after Belarus to get loan from Russia or the Community. After all, here there is a political factor — the rate has changed, and there is no exchange. And, of course, this does not solve the systemic problems in the Belarusian economy.
Tsigankov: Why the economic authorities so obstinate that the official rate is still at a level of three thousand? Can we say that it is a matter fe facto to the multiplicity of the Belarusian ruble?
Preygerman: It should be understood that the National Bank in Belarus is an independent center of economic decision-making, including kursavtvarenni. The authorities are aware that if officially devalue, then this will instantly jump salary up to the level of Belarusians of Moldova, which is considered the poorest country in Europe.
But on the other hand, there is no other way out. Devaluation should be, and they its will do. But nyavstoylivasts solutions — is evidence of a variety of risks, including political ones, are afraid of the authorities. And also evidence that the authorities have no unified economic strategy.
Tsigankov: Now in exchange rate established 4000, but there is evidence that such a course and dollars to buy is difficult. If it is given permission to this course not artificially keep, will further increase the dollar?
Preygerman: I think that the dollar will rise. If it is given the freedom to commercial banks, this growth will continue. You've got to understand that the problem of the trade deficit and the current account remains, and if the statistics look even increased. And the reason is not only that, says Lukashenko and certain officials, people started to buy cars. Cars in Belarus imports account for only a few percent. The main problem — it's energy. A rise in their prices continues. In this position, without radical changes to stay on the same level as the ruble can not.