What awaits the West from the new president of the Russian Federation

May 7 inauguration took place in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin. Assignment of this review article — to show how the West sees the new "old" Russian President, what he should wait, what's not and what trusts scared. Applied for a review of the South American and English newspapers.

What awaits the West from Russia's new president

Kathy Lally in "Washington Post" writes that vorachivaetsya Putin to the presidency in Russia is weaker than it was at the introduction to the post of head of state in 2000.

Someone in Russia is now waiting for a "long, rough road of democratic reform," and the other "shaking with fear." Creator of the article is that in Russia is "hidden from prying eyes struggle" between "hardliners who say that only an uncompromising crackdown will save them" and "more progressive elements calling for reforms." These latter "elements," adds Lally, still I wish that RF opened access to economic development.

Putin does not alienate the "hardliners", then writes the journalist, because they represent "a complete set consisting of the security forces and the military-industrial insiders," so Putin "risks" to get a "conspiracy against him." But, on the other hand, than he will not be able to calm sown protests, he will reap the riots.

Most likely, concludes the South American journalist Vladimir Putin address to law enforcement officers — "is the Russian term for the security forces and the military, those who have power and who have an instrument — turn to them for support. This was stated by Dmitry Oreshkin, organizer of the League of voters made this year to conduct honest elections. "

Oreshkin, says Lally, does not believe that the new regime will be more severe than during the Russian Union, but it will be difficult, if 5 years back.

The article also compares Putin … Gorbachev: "Russian began to associate Putin with Mikhail Gorbachev, cursing the latter — and not finding a word of praise for the smallest. Many Russians despise Gorbachev, the last favorite of Russian Union, accusing him of winding up the empire and doom them to poverty and humiliation. "

In order to prove that the Russian believe Putin's second Gorbachev, quoted Stanislav Belkovsky, director of the Institute for Public Strategies in Moscow: "In my opinion, our homeland has entered a makeover — 2". Here's what else Belkovsky said: "Twenty-five years ago, Gorbachev launched perestroika [rebirth], as wanted to strengthen the communist system, not change it. But he has lost all control over the situation, a storm arose — and all Gorbachev's reforms led to the collapse of the Union of Russian. " And — about Putin: "He that believeth on oil and gas, less than … He has only one thought. While oil prices are high, the Russian economy survives. "

Oreshkin same, according to Lally, reads: "In the Russian time they reported on the huge crops and cows, heavy with milk … but the stores did not have oil. Now they say they are, that the chain of command to raise the country from its knees, and we will not allow the Yankees to build a missile defense. But it does not mean anything, and everyone knows it. "

"Soviet power vertical lasted 70 years — said Oreshkin. — It is hard say, how long this will last. "

In another article in the "Washington" Post " Will Englund and Kathy Lally write about the protests in the capital Sunday.

The authorities have shown journalists write that they "are much less tolerant set than in the winter anti-government protesters and police units in riot gear more than once oncoming, boldly mocking the weight and striking with batons — and eventually detained more than 450 people. But protesters also noted that, despite the election victory of Putin in March, the opposition forces exhausted and did not give up. "

The article reports that among the detainees were "three prominent opposition leader Sergei Udaltsov, a favorite of the Left Front, Alexei Navalny, an anti-corruption blogger, and a veteran of liberal politicians Boris Nemtsov."

"Three major source of Russian anti-government news — says further -" Rain TV ", independent Internet channel," Echo of Moscow ", as the organization of" Kommersant "(newspaper and radio) — narrated that on Sunday they were under cyber attacks. Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the government's Web-sites have also come under attack. "

Another quote, from which it is clear that the Russian democrats in Moscow can accurately detect police in men in civilian clothes, and even journalists:

"Olga Selivanov, 45, stood out the sticker on her snow-white umbrella," My dear daughter, buy milk, lunch in the fridge. I'm on the show. I wish to return democracy to Russia. I'll be late. Your mother. "

In fact she has two daughters, she said, age — 16 and 12. Selivanov became politically active after she uttered that can not see the future for Russia. Now, she says, she is among those who are asking questions, and requests a response. "We are trained to be citizens," — she said.

Natalia Pelevin drinking coffee with 2 other activists on Sunday afternoon in «Starbucks» on Tverskaya Street, not far from the Kremlin, and saw that they are being observed in the civilian police. Pelevin said that she and her friends were discussing illegal conduct impromptu demonstration in the square near the Kremlin. Approximately one hour later, she said, people in the civilian — by the time they were joined by uniformed police — broke and tried to take them out.

"It was quite severely," — says Pelevin, expressing suspicion that the police had bugged her phone discussions and watched her. Pelevin Russian, fluent in English, started yelling in Russian and British languages, attracting the attention of passing journalist. The police, in the end, let her go, but detained her friends. One of them was released, but she said that others could face serious charges. "

Excerpt from an article in "Denver Post" (Creator — Lynn Berry)

"… The Kremlin-controlled TV channels as before remain the main source disk imaging for most Russians, and many of them believe.

Even those who are unhappy with Putin, they say that he is the only one capable of leading the country. They do not behold the candidacy and believe that Russia needs a strong hand.

After coming to power in 2000, Putin has constantly emasculated all other political institutions, or pushing away those who challenged his centralized management, or prohibiting them from participating in elections, evicting them or sending them to jail.

So makarom Putin to prevent the occurrence of at least some strong figure who could unite those who oppose his rule.

To take control of all large state, he abolished gubernatorial elections and made the governors dependent on the Kremlin.

As a result of protests Putin agreed to restore the direct elections of governors, although the provisions of the new law caused fear that he will still be able to determine who is allowed to work … "

In another article, Lynn Berry "D
enver Post" said that during his stay in power Fishing season him to "dramatically" has promoted economic growth, against which the Russians "to restore a sense of national pride — after impermanence and humiliation that followed in 1991 after the collapse of the Russian Union". In addition, Putin "deviated from the democratic achievements of the 1990s and imposed a political system that stifles dissent."

In this article quoted Zyuganov, which believes that by refusing to take the protesters seriously, the government makes them radicals. "The government must understand that the split in society is getting wider, and the anger over unfair elections and the lack of regular dialogue increases. In this situation, radicalism is inevitable — Zyuganov said. — Any samples to silence people baton do not make sense and are very dangerous. "

Miriam Elder in "The Guardian" wrote on Sunday, "the biggest clashes between police and protesters after Putin's presidential victory in 1999":

"… At least least three of six of the demonstrators and the police need healing in the clinic, and a few 10-s were slightly injured. The protesters pelted officers with beer bottles and stones. Riot police responded to the overwhelming use of force, mass beating people with batons and dragging them into waiting vans, from time to time by the hair.

More than 250 people were arrested, including some of the favorites of the protest movement — a fighter against corruption activist Alexei Navalny, leftist activist Sergei Udaltsov and past Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov.

The prosecutor's office said it would investigate, do not do these people provoked the violence against protesters — a charge, where you can get up to 10 years in prison.

The protest began peacefully: more than 20,000 Russian march through the streets in Moscow, which was declared as the "March of Millions", called to express displeasure against Putin's inauguration in Mon On the streets could be heard shouting "Putin is a thief." Many people came from other cities in Russia, where the protest movement is not so much.

The protesters went on Bolotnaya Square, one of the main attractions of Moscow. Since the area is beginning to fill up, four of the deepest range of riot police blocked their path, causing the anger of protesters who chanted "This is our city" and "Police, be with the people, nor serve freaks!" <…>

After the riots, when police dispersed the protesters, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Russian TV channel "Rain TV": "From my point of view, the police acted softly. I wish that she acted tougher. " Interior Ministry spokesman told "Interfax" that the police acted "professionally" and "adequately".

It was the biggest clash between police and protesters after Putin's presidential victory in 1999. "

"Financial Times" writes of his own, financially. Article Stefan Wagstyl "Putin 2.0 on another for investors?" Says: "The markets have not been kind to Putin when he was brought to the presidential oath."

"Investors are worried about everything — says creator — China, oil jobs in the United States and the elections in France — but the markets of Moscow showed no interest enough to welcome the new president." Further reported that stocks and the ruble fell into the Sun by 0.4 percent and 1 percent.

"Bulls" — says Wagstyl — can make a convincing story: 2.0 Putin can not grow the economy, both in their own first 2-presidential terms in 2000-2008, either as prime minister in 2008-12, as no longer count on high-spirited rise in oil prices.

About $ 117 per barrel of Russian crude oil consistency «Urals», — it is almost 5 times more expensive than the $ 24 per barrel in 2000. Even if the costs will increase further, they are unlikely to grow at the same rate.

Therefore, that the "bulls" could establish itself in the market, Putin needs to continue economic reforms, including market liberalization, privatization, reduction of bureaucracy and fight corruption. In the unlikely event our homeland does not deliver economic growth, you need to get one hundred percent of a functioning modern society … "

Regarding the protests in the capital's streets Wagstyl writes that these phenomena on their scope — not revolutionary, but "they demonstrate that even wealthy people who can say Thanks to Putin for the money in their own wallets are not satisfied: they want more. They are willing to role in political life. They also do not want to shame, living in one of the most corrupt countries in the world. "

That is why the "bulls" and they say that Putin has to change. "He's 59 years old, he is thinking about his legacy, and he did not choose to have thought of him as a person, which had a historic opportunity to modernize his country — but squandered it in vain. "

But the "bears" responsible "bulls", "Not so fast. We've heard that before. For example, in 2008. The newly elected President Dmitry Medvedev has generated the highest expectations — at least in the middle of the last of the "bulls" — in his own propensity to reform. Even if he was not going to suddenly run from authoritarianism to democracy, he liberalized the economy and — an important point for him — ennobled law.

But in fact, was not. "It was a natural when it turned out that the new president — a little more than a poodle Putin. Investors who purchased these stories have been destroyed, as in 2008, came the global crash — and Russian stocks fell even lower and faster than most of the others. "

Then follows a humorous conclusion: "So now the fund managers are rightly afraid to bet on the latest administration just because she's new — even more so that it is not new."

Assist investors believe Fishing season and his future team may, in the views of the analyst, the clarification of the next friday:

1) cabinet destination — it is better if they were with a bias towards not conservatives and liberals;

2) what will be the configuration of the budget — due to Putin's campaign promises;

3) continuation of privatization, including the sale of a large bit of the Savings Bank. Then investors would have liked everything that is based on market criteria, and not on political decisions. While some successful privatization would improve the atmosphere in the market;

4) is not enough to complete the picture as a direct foreign investment by strip trades ExxonMobil — Rosneft. Although it is mainly depends on the willingness of foreign investors, if the government, says creator, big deal will give a powerful effect;

5) the progress of the political reforms that have been announced: for example, increasing the registered political parties;

6) can be a relief to the prisoners of the former owner of Misha Khodorkovsky. Although there is no direct connection between his imprisonment and economic policies, the analyst said, it will help make sense that our homeland is moving on.

"We could go on, — concludes Stefan Wagstyl. — But there is no need for it. The fact is that there are a lot of things that Putin could make quite rapidly, to show he is serious. The question is, what he wants to do? "

Surveyed and translated Oleg Chuvakin
— Especially for topwar.ru

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