Society to discuss political scientist Andrei Fedorov from Minsk and associate professor of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations Kirill Koktysh from Moscow.
Moscow's position has changed
Valery Karbalevich"So far, all Russian officials have reacted positively to the allocation of credit to Belarus. On the loyalty of Moscow on this issue and said Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Finance Minister Kudrin, and Ambassador Surikov. Both Belarusian officials have said that everything is fine, go constructive negotiations, the parties discussed the anti-crisis program proposed by the Belarusian government. And suddenly, everything changed. Do you agree with the fact that Russia's position has changed? "
Andrei Fedorov"So. The talks are about two months. April 18 the same Kudrin said that he would like to negotiations ended in a month. Three days later, the Russian ambassador to Belarus Surikov said the Russian side there is no attempt to deny credit. Five days later, Finance Minister Kharkavets noted that all the problems will be resolved in the negotiations during the week, and the loan amount is the total size of $ 3 billion corresponds to the demands of Belarus, and this confirms the Russian side. Therefore, today's information is as unexpected. "
Kirill Koktysh"And I think that Russia's position is consistent. Moscow sought to demonstrate its role as a lifeguard Lukashenko of Belarus and the inability to ensure the economic security of the country. We do not know what the conditions put forward Russia. But click on the nose failed. I think this is the beginning of a long bargaining.
The second point. In Russia now in high turbulentnasts. For three and a half weeks billionaires announced that withdraw their capital from the Russian Federation. That adds about $ 170 billion. So now Moscow is not to Belarusian problems. "
Why Russia changed its mind to help Belarus?
Karbalevich"What has happened? What cat ran again between the allies? Belarus does not want to carry Russian conditions? What are these conditions? . "
Fedorov"The most obvious version: the parties have agreed. Russia publicly exhibited condition for receiving loans preparation Belarusian government program of economic reforms. I do not think that it has become an obstacle. The program is prepared. Perhaps there is everything demanded Moscow. Perhaps not all the items Belarusian authorities were going to perform, but that's another matter.
Perhaps obstacle was the issue of privatization. Here are negotiating a merger of MAZ and KAMAZ. It may not have agreed on other businesses.
But it is important to note that the denial of the loan by the mouth of Russia Kudrin announced publicly. If Moscow wanted to achieve privatization of Belarusian enterprises of the Russian capital, it continued to be traded on behind the scenes. But Kudrin's statement is like burning bridges. "
Koktyish"Perhaps it was the desire to Russia not to give Lukashenko save face. And it is also important from the point of view, to strip the president of Belarus, Russia to influence the electoral process (presidential elections). This process is going to be tough, and extra players out there do not need it. "
Karbalevich"Maybe it really was the goal of Russia? Moscow may just roughly, "threw" the Lukashenka? Maybe it's the continuation of the information war waged by Russia against Lukashenko last year? She was quiet for a while. But they have forgotten nothing and waiting for the right moment to make a terrible revenge. "
Fedorov"Do not rule out this version. Perhaps, indeed, Moscow was not going to give the money and play like a cat with a mouse. This was a consequence of the events of December 19. The conflict between Belarus and the West has led to the fact that the support of the west side is not. Minsk was defenseless in front of Moscow, and the latter takes advantage of this. "
Koktyish"Russia is pursuing a rational foreign policy and revenge there — not the tool. Just Russia has decided to put in place Lukashenko. "