Society to these and other questions in the transmission of "Examination of Freedom" meet economist, deputy chairman of the United Civil Party Lev Margolin and economist Michael Zaleski.
"If you now make free trades, then there may bounce to 8000"
TsigankovAlexander Lukashenko on May 12 promised that Belarus will settle in 1-2 months on the foreign exchange market. Are there any economic grounds for such optimism? Maybe the authorities know something that is not independent economists know? Well, for example, over GDP is growing at a record pace. Maybe this will help to overcome the currency crisis?
Margolin: If there is a desire of the authorities, the currency crisis can be overcome relatively quickly. But while I do not see such a desire.
Statements regarding Lukashenko, he did not seem to believe in myself what I said earlier. The entire monetary crisis caused by the fact that Belarusians have rushed to buy their own cars. And when the first day of July of the tax rise, the problem, they say, just by itself will end. Other objective reasons for the termination of the currency crisis, I do not see.
Tsigankov: At the beginning of his commentary, you said that if you want a currency crisis can be overcome relatively quickly. How so?
Margolin: Main Market. Value of the currency should not be defined by directive, but only by the market. To do this, there is the National Bank, which is to organize foreign exchange trading, and not to interfere in them.
Tsigankov: What is the rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar the most consistent with the current state of the Belarusian economy? Or are today's 4,000, or a much larger figure?
Zaleski: It's hard to say. The more the situation today is delayed, the greater the rising tide of demand. That only motorists would buy a currency … The main consumers of currency — not citizens, industry and agriculture. Our export-oriented country in one U.S. exports has from 75 to 85 cents imports. Therefore, companies need the currency in the first place, they are the main buyers, and this demand is growing.
If you now make free trades, then there may be up to 8000 jump. And then it will slowly oscillate until vravnavazhytstsa. But now at least 5,000 non-cash market can not be.
Tsigankov: Trade deficit is not reduced. This means that the positive prospects for the ruble is not visible?
Zaleski: Yes. It turns out that the more we work, the more we blame. For imports, which we bring to Belarus, we add little additional value. And because as a state we are working at a loss.
Tsigankov: Can the ruble exchange rate affect the following factor: the prices have increased and the population simply would not have enough rubles to buy currency?
"The announced GDP growth to a large proportion of fictitious"
Margolin: Mr. Zaleski said that the main consumer of currency — it's not the citizens, and the industry. We have a lot of imports consume those businesses that do not export-oriented products, and products for domestic consumption. And, moreover, it is not always in demand. Currency spent on the import of raw materials and parts, and there is no escape. Therefore, there will be money in the population, or not — this is not the point.
It seems to me that the announced GDP growth in a considerable share fictitious. After all, here taken into account and that production, which settles in the warehouses, and ice rinks. Consume such a product is not possible.
Tsigankov: So, the experts believe that the causes of the currency crisis — a deep, strategic issues of the Belarusian economy. However, Alexander Lukashenko said that no reforms are needed, it is required by the fifth column, and such ideas tossed Belarus. By the way, it is contrary to the statements of some officials in the government who talk about the need for reform. With the win — the ideological prejudices or economic reality?
Margolin: I believe that sooner or later even the Belarusian leader understands that reforms are needed. As for the officials in the government, I believe that work there are not stupid people, and they understand the need for change. But will Lukashenko determined to risk his unlimited power and go to market reform — it defies conventional logic.
Tsigankov: Maybe you are too sympathetically think about Belarusian officials? In the presidential administration, there are people who write articles that market reforms in the West invented specifically to conquer the Slavic peoples that this is aimed at a gap of unity with Russia and so on.
MargolinYes there are. But it's written by people who are very far from the economy. Those who are faced with economic reality, I think, realized that without reform we can not escape.
"Why National Bank currently does not resolve the issue with the currency? Teams do not "
Zaleski: There are two approaches. Someone does not like the dentist, but the tooth hurts. And if it is not svidravats, it will pull. The second approach says that everyone needs to work better in the workplace. And it is a return to the idea of Gorbachev's "acceleration". In past years we have worked so — "anyhow," and now we will "anyhow-anyhow," in half the time. And everything will be better. No.
For in order to do something new, create added value, must be a person who knows what to do. And he called the owner. And we entrepreneurs are less and less, as it is a dangerous occupation. If we have all the time spinning, then you can rip cuts.
You've got to come up with something all this to do with properly. But it is impossible to think of a single center. I agree with my colleague Margolin, that we have enough professionals with education and with experience. But why do they do? Why National Bank currently does not resolve the issue with the currency? Teams do not. It's like a sick man lay, and stood over him with a scalpel and the doctor was waiting for the order, starting the operation. It turns out that we were buried in the bureaucratic quagmire.
Tsigankov: For stand-alone solutions can shoot at best, and at worst — to plant …
Zaleski: Well, yes. People see that economic decisions are now safe. And enthusiasts, hobbyists stick his head in a noose — few of them left.
Tsigankov: Mr. Zaleski spoke of "acceleration" in the USSR, but we can recall that recently Lukashenko recalled the Andropov, they say, it is necessary to restore order and disciplin
e in the workplace. Can a reign that approach to solving economic problems?
Margolin: In this approach in Belarus there is no time. If such an approach will prevail, then no more than a few months. In the USSR under Andropov had the strength for a few years. In Belarus, this strength is only a few months. So — with or without Lukashenko — but reform must occur.