The financial market of Belarus silent, digesting the news of the oral agreement on the allocation of the first tranche of the loan from the EurAsEC Anti-Crisis Fund in support of the Belarusian ruble. Since these funds for 90% of Russian origin, on the eve of such intentions confirmed first Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, and later Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin. The final decision will be announced in early June. But can a $ 1 billion to stop the disease, which many experts believe is incurable?
As far as vratavalny promised credit in losses that are measured in billions of dollars? Prime Minister of Belarus Mikhail Myasnikovich after talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin concluded that these funds will be sufficient to have for the next time out on the real exchange rate of the national currency on the basis of supply and demand. Scientific Director of the Belarusian Economic Research Education Center BEROC Michael Salnikov also inclined to think that even 1 billion is enough to significantly improve the situation:
"At the moment it's one billion is roughly equivalent to 20% of foreign exchange reserves. We are talking about an instant increase in gold reserves by 20%, which is quite significant. Thus, if you look at the exchange rate situation only in terms of foreign exchange reserves, in principle, this billion quite significantly affect the exchange rate dynamics and can, in principle, to calm the mood in society. "
Life in the credit for turning the Belarusian authorities in practice. According to the economist Michael Zaleski, Belarusian economy is inefficient, originally focused on parazytavanne on cheap Russian energy resources, has shown its full nedeyazdolnasts in market conditions. Therefore, no external inflows will not pump out, if not will be made deep and fundamental reforms:
"I once brought an example: you have a log and I have a log. And if you did raspiluesh across, you will have the wood, and when I raspiluyu along, then I will have the board. Of course, that in this case I'll make more. But if you talk to across the state, we do not even try raspilovvats nested logs. Piled so given — that this our economy. On the other hand, if you have a closer look at our economy, we get that: we buy saws, boots we buy, we buy everything else, and this is due to the fact that costs us to dump a log. It is more than the price of logs in the world market. Therefore, we all the time in burns. Here we are again $ 3 billion deficit. "
Meanwhile, the Belarusian leadership has calculated that with the help of the Russian budget and capital in general can bring to the economy of more than 6 billion. Analysts have questioned the objectivity of arithmetic such as 3 billion from the fund of the Eurasian Economic Community, at best, will be allocated over the next three years, and the rest of the money — it's expected income from future privatization of strategic enterprises. But, says analyst Michael Salnikov, a grain of truth in these calculations is still there:
"You are talking about an interesting arithmetic: 3000000000 + 3000000000 for privatization, resulting in 6,000,000,000. From an economic point of view, it is absolutely correct arithmetic, because in fact we are talking about the money that will go to the financial expense. We have two accounts, including a balance of trade, which is in a very substantial deficit — for I quarter it was 27% of GDP, which is quite serious. In terms of the trade deficit country can exist if there is inflow on the financial account and the capital account. External debt and foreign direct investment, including privatization — it increases the balance of all transactions in the financial account and the capital account. We are talking about the fact that the balance of payments, which is the sum of the trade balance and financial account is in serious plus — that's a result of the additional 3 billion + $ 3 billion. And so it will be smoothed situation on the currency market. "
Financial Advisor Sergei Chaly said that the situation with the service of credit, the amount of which is rapidly growing, yet not be a deadly threat to the Belarusian budget. Especially as the Russian loans have a political component, and in the end can simply be written off. However, to continue to rely on outside assistance for at least imprudent:
"I do not know, by and large the Americans since the 1960's, live in debt, and never let them give. Just serve, that is, pay interest to all. You know, again, it is about what we have the lion's share of government debt — they were just the interstate. This commercial debt we have — it's just Eurobonds and the IMF loan, and everything else — is debt that can be secured yakimistsi political agreements, something else. In any case, it will be a matter of negotiations, and not the fact that they are bound to give. "
Reporter"That is, we have in mind primarily the Russian debts …".
"Yes, and Venesuela was still at the end of 2008. In my opinion, somewhere in $ 500 million, something like that. "
Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said yesterday that the elimination of a multiplicity of rates of the Belarusian currency is one of the conditions for the provision of credit support for Russia's economy of Belarus. In addition, the base, to give credit for the three years in the amount of $ 3 billion, the statement will be a three-year privatization program.