Earthquake prediction in central Mexico, Ms? 8.2

Shows focal areas mega earthquakes in 1932 and 1985. Mega quake are not available. Until the end of 2012 is expected earthquake with M = 7.9 in the coastal Oaxaca. Potential sources are shown by red circles

Ms? 8.2. The Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 forecast of strong earthquakes in central Mexico made by Ms SS? 7.8. There, we predicted that "The situation remains critical in the system, the track is in the attractor. Danger in the coastal zone in the south-southwest of Oaxaca, are expected strong earthquake with M = 7.9. There is a shortage of energy equal to the energy of the earthquake-indicator with M = 7.2. Rather all earthquake will trigger or will have a strong foreshock with M = 7.2 … Depending on the development of seismic hazard can migrate to the coastal area of Acapulco (Guerrero state). situation resolved before the middle of 2011. " This forecast shall be extended until the end of 2012. For the prediction of earthquakes has been allocated Mega Mega SS Mexico, which is responsible for the preparation of catastrophic earthquakes with Ms? 8.2 (see Figure 5). Given the strong avftershokov such earthquakes listed as 1907, M8.2 (Guerrero Coast), 1932, M8.4 (Jalisco-Colima Coast, fatalities 45), 1985, M8.2 (Michoacan Coast, 9500 people killed) (see Table .3). In Chart 3 and Figure 6 shows the values of the fragment track training catastrophic earthquake with M = 8.2 at the beginning of June 2011. It can be seen that the track has a large energy deficit earthquake-indicators and is still well below the attractor instability zone in 1932 and 1985. Monitoring systems with a low threshold magnitudes shows that in the next five years in central Mexico is expected cascade of strong earthquakes with M = 7.2-7.9. From Figure 6 shows that only after such training can enhance the mega-quake in central Mexico in 2016. Can estimate when an earthquake-indicator with M = 7.9. We calculated the area of instability on the points of strong earthquakes-indicators (yellow line in Figure 5): K = 0.718W +3.209 (2) In May 2011 K = 17.153. Substituting in Eq (2) is critical values of entropy Wk = 19.421. Lull in seismic entropy reaches this magnitude to February-March 2013. So before that date in the coastal zone Oaxaca possible to prepare a strong earthquake with M = 7.9.

Track diagram Mega CC Mexico. The track has a large energy deficit earthquake-indicators and is still well below the attractor mega earthquakes with M? 8.2. Earthquake-line indicators found instability for strong earthquakes-indicators (yellow line). Until the end of 2012 is expected earthquake with M = 7.9 in the coastal area

Growth dynamics of the probability mega earthquakes with M? 8.2 Mega CC Mexico on June 1, 2011

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