"Strategy — hard pressure on the Belarusian leadership in various spheres"
Tsigankov: In the beginning there was a transfer "However," on ORT, then the story on TV «Russia today», then on NTV film "Godfather", which is already being called a scandal. This unprecedented criticism of Lukashenko has never been in the Russian media — the year of 1996. What causes it, what Moscow wants to achieve in such a propaganda blow?
Kalinkina: I believe that Lukashenko answered this question in an interview with Euronews. It is there said that this pressure is connected with the presidential election. Therefore, I agree that this information attack nonrandom. By the way, it is not limited TV channels — in a number of newspapers and magazines also came out very critical material about the customs authorities of Belarus and the Belarusian leader. So I think it's really such a deliberate and sanctioned propaganda campaign related primarily to the presidential election
Tsigankov: But in this case is not whether the company defined a false start? 7-8 months before the election. Or forget the emotions that are caused by the readers and listeners of these films?
Kalinkina: We do not know what Moscow has a plan for the presidential election. If all of this is limited, then it will be a false start, bad, but not fatal for Lukashenko. But if there is a continuation of the theme …. In Russia there are a number of former officials from Minsk, and the Russian media that will continue on this subject, if necessary
TsigankovAlexander, there is some evidence of these films systematic, strategic approach — or is it just a friendly personal irritation at the leaders of Russia Lukashenko?
Klaskouski: Of course, there is an emotional moment here on both sides. Earlier sides did a good face about integration, but now "advyazalisya" and went ruthless exchange of blows.
It is clear that Moscow will implement a long-term strategy — the hard pressure on the Belarusian leadership in various fields. We know that since 2007, consistently reduced all economic subsidies.
In the field of information — these films Moscow solves a number of problems. Russian viewers thus explain — "see who we are dealing with, how can they continue to grant?". Or if you take the «Russia today» — then there adgulvayuts gas war. After all, according to Euronews Lukashenko looked more emotionally convincing than the representative of "Gazprom" Kupriyanov said. Therefore, in the story explain — look what we partner, and is it any wonder that there are these gas war, it is not our fault.
If we talk in general about the strategy, Russia acts consistently enough. First, she wanted to run and put the squeeze on the Customs Union of Belarus. The next goal — cheap buy attractive assets, in the end, taking the top team in the Belarusian economy by linking it to the Customs Union, to gain leverage and influence on politics
"The response of Minsk, I would call complete confusion"
Tsigankov: And how can you assess the reaction of the Belarusian side?
Klaskouski: While Minsk in confusion and shock, because I do not know how to react. There were so many aplembu gas during the war, sounded democratic motives, and now in Astana actually have to sign a contract on Russian terms. There is still such a slap in the face. It is significant that the authorities did not remain mute. After all, usually early in order not to attract the attention of the Belarusian audience does not comment on such things. But it had to respond, and as long as the set of their theses are pretty standard and unconvincing.
TsigankovSvetlana, but as you can appreciate the passage that was given at the beginning of the movie "The Godfather" of its creators? Let me remind you, they wrote there that cassettes were seized Belarusian KGB. But then in the "Minsk there are people who managed to find them in a safe KGB and returned to us." Is there an allusion to that in Russia in the Belarusian KGB have people who work for Russia?
"Today, I do not see the candidate in Belarus, which could support the Kremlin"
Kalinkina: It might just be the way that TV people just did not want to expose their colleagues working in Belarus, and that gave them the record. But it is possible that some really tapes were returned "well-wishers" NTV.
While the reaction of Minsk, I would call a daunting task. It seems to me that in Minsk just did not expect that Moscow may respond in the same tone in which time and again attacked the Moscow Minsk ideologues.
Tsigankov: How to Moscow will form its position on the presidential campaign in Belarus? Or in Russia task only irritate Lukashenko, or they have already reached the question — "but maybe it's worth anyone else?"
Kalinkina: I think the Moscow leaders have come to understand that Belarus — is not only Lukashenko.
Another thing — is there a particular script is on the campaign or is it a long-term strategy. Because today I do not see the candidate in Belarus, which could support the Kremlin. At least, now in Moscow working on the script of pushing Belarus to change the government — if not now, then in a year or two or three. Therefore, Lukashenko was so nervous when he sees the Kyrgyz scenario.
TsigankovWhat is better for Moscow — or better, more press on the current head, to make it more and more dependent, or to bet on the other?
"They will be speaking the language of Lukashenko," bend more »
Klaskouski: I think that in Moscow in folders based on different scenarios regarding Belarus. Another thing that will be implemented in Belarus. I think that such a tactic — it is necessary to squeeze the most of any concessions, and there is "a look at the behavior." If the behavior does not like it, then there will be new stuffing black PR, and other activities.
If Moscow had the opportunity during this campaign held in Kings their figure, she would have done it. But since no such certainty, and who knows what will be the "output" as much to stir up the event — that while tactics such as it is.
However, I agree with Svetlana, that this election is not over. Moscow sees more and more difficult to negotiate with Lukashenko. So they will either, in the language Lukashenko, "bend on", or more radically to think of other options to ensure the promotion of their interests.
After all, Moscow now feels a akrylenasts. There was an awkward Bakiyev in Kyrgyzstan — not there now Bakiyev was bad for Moscow, Yushchenko — now t
here is no Yushchenko. Therefore, I think we Kraimli logical scroll further moves in the direction of how to reinforce its position in the post-Soviet space.