The appearance on the work of the National Bank of Belarus Piotr Prokopovich, which took six weeks rehabilitation after heart surgery, has not brought clarity to the situation on the currency market.
Most commercial banks continue to hold the rate recommended by the National Bank in 4000 to the dollar, although some ventured out to raise the rate by another half a thousand rubles. Meanwhile, the interbank exchange dollar jumped to 6,300 rubles. Buy dollars, euros, money from other countries to exchange points are still possible.
Prokopovich although it continues to hurt, but today held a meeting with the National Bank. Do not reveal details of the conversation, but it seems that drastic action is not planned. The official exchange rate is kept at a ratio slightly more than 3,000 rubles per $ 1. Meanwhile cash ruble allowed to depreciate even further: in the middle of the day "Belagroprombank" and "Belinvestbank" put buying rate in the range 4490 rubles, sale — 4500. But, as reported in these banks, even at such exchange rates in the public domain does not appear.
At convincing financial expert Dmitry Volokha, it means only one thing: the rate in 4500 is too small to talk about normalization of the overall situation. On He said, from the half-hearted measures of the National Bank, which allegedly let the ruble, but still trying to control the market, the fruit a bit:
"The first thing you need to do now — is, of course, allow for the free kursavtvarennya. Because at the moment the market as such, there is only a cover. Has shown that the situation can be corrected only real steps rather than trying to keep everything under strict administrative control. When the course is released — for example, in a situation of shortage of currency — the first all scared of this, but gradually appears a concrete proposal. Indeed, this is usually the maximum value, but soon there is a drop. But in order for that to happen, so it's finally falling was necessary to release the real exchange rate, and not on the reins, so that at least a couple of weeks free rate of second-hand. "
In commercial banks are reluctant to talk about the possible future prospects. On condition of anonymity, agree that the best solution would be to actually let go of the ruble, and the dynamics of supply and demand for the currency would do the trick. But complaining about the limits of action, since the National Bank is not "ripe" to a significant devaluation. As a result, as recognized by the representative of one of the capital of banks, this uncertainty was simply inexplicable:
"As far as I understand, the National Bank, in this sense has taken a stand ostensibly non-intervention. He did not comment on the activities of subordinate banks and commercial banks, in turn, had nothing much comment and pretend that nothing is happening. Those comments that are coming in, they look very cautious. Given that the situation is actually very difficult, because people see the same result opposite to the promises. their own skin feel that the situation unfolds not for the better. "
Some experts predict that essentially nothing in the financial market will not change until at least May 19, when Minsk plans to visit the Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin. According to them, the Belarusian authorities are still hoping to put pressure on the Russian government, that he reconsidered his position on the abolition of the previous agreements on stabilization loan for Belarus. Economist Lev Margolin considers that, in principle, the parties can come back to the issue, but now it will be a requirement to provide more concessions from Minsk:
"Questions of there, I think, were not so much financial as economic. Example, MAZ, when here came the Russian delegation, but nothing specific to them and did not say to other businesses. So perhaps we will see shortly, what the real demand pushes the Russian side. "
Reporter"If Belarus and even knock out one billion currently, where will he go? '.
"They did, of course, not be allowed in the exchangers, and gold reserves. But this does not solve all the issues. When they want in exchange dollars there, you have the reserves to give back to their commercial banks. And the further the more than this circle is closed, the further the disease distracting a fortiori treatment will be painful. "
During the weekend, the markets of the capital and other cities listed entrepreneurs dollar at the rate of about 5,000 rubles. Dollar on the interbank market is more expensive — 6300. Meanwhile Trade Network triumphal procession began to prices that are adjusted for inflation far outstrip salaries.