The dynastic change in North Korea?

In September, to be held in Pyongyang Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea (CTI). Previous Congress leading force of the North Korean people was held in 1980 and has given the country's current leader Kim Jong Il powers that made him a political successor to his father, Kim Il Sung (1912-1994), the founder of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) in 1948. It is expected that the current Congress ITC following the political leader of North Korea Kim Jong-un's approval, one of the sons, Kim Jong Il.

"Young General"

According to the analysis of the situation in North Korea, located in the Financial Times on July 6, the health of Kim Jong Il, who reportedly smokes a lot and consume a lot of alcohol, suffered a lot, especially after suspected heart attack in 2008. So 69-year-old "Dear Leader" and "Eternal President" — under these titles Kim Jong Il is known to his people — decided to appoint a successor.

Presumably Kim Jong-il — three sons, Kim Jong Nam, Kim Jong Chol and Kim Jong-un (in another spelling: Kim Jong-un.) Experts believe that just Kim Jong-un, known in official propaganda by the nickname of "Young General," the father was chosen as the successor to the dynastic government.

Because North Korea is the most isolated country in the world, information about the that there actually happens is very stingy and not always reliable. But experts believe that the disappearance of the names of a number of important officials to formally disseminated reports of public life in North Korea shows cleansing which carries a young general in the upper echelons of the alleged imitation of power. This, according to some experts, it helps in-law of Kim Jong-il, a 64-year-old Jang Song Taek.

None of the experts, by the way, does not know how many years young general. It is believed that he was not yet thirty.

The policy of confrontation with the South

The relations between Pyongyang and Seoul, which was a bit were adjusted after the death of Kim Il Sung, in 1994, returned to the level of military rhetoric of time "Cold War."

In March, North Korean submarine flooded the South Korean ship with 46 sailors. South Korea said the restoration of broadcasts to North Korea via sound amplifiers along the border. Pyongyang warned it would open fire on the speaker so if they are delivered.

There are at least two expert working out why it happened deterioration of relations. Both explanations are not hostile to anything good for the stability in the region.

According to the first, Kim Jong-il spends control of affairs in the country and is expected to lose his mind at the same time. Some North Korean commanders did not listen to the Dear Leader and want to provoke a military crisis on the peninsula. The disappearance of some officials of publichnagaga life — is evidence that Kim Jong Il is trying to restore order and adopt a son successor.

According to the second view, Kim Jong-il has complete control over the power in the country, and rising tensions with South Korea regime due to an attempt to divert attention from the citizens of the difficult economic situation.

This situation worsened after the suspension of economic aid from South Korea in 2008 and the UN sanctions in 2009 as a result of nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches in North Korea. The United Nations imposed an embargo on arms and Pyongyang have introduced strict control of such transactions, which gave the country a very significant influx of cash.

Whether North Korea will soon fall apart?

According to Financial Times, the North Korean regime could collapse tomorrow, though, but that does not automatically mean the reunification of the two parts of the divided nation in a state organism. Ironically, no one at such a rapid reunification is not really interested.

China as a nation in the world, which helps the regime of Kim Jong Il is afraid that his fall could cause an unwanted influx of North Korean refugees and rebellion in the Korean Army, which serves about one million people. Moreover, Beijing would not bow to the 75 millionth Korean state next door, which, God forbid, would be devastating to spread the ideas of further reunification of the Korean community in China (with a population of about 2 million Koreans).

Because of economic competition, the union of the two Koreas is not attractive, and for Japan.

And in South Korea itself the prevailing view that the association immediately after the fall of the North Korean regime is not the best solution. In Seoul, the time often heard view that North Korea, if we lose the dynasty founded by Kim Il Sung has for generations to save a stand-alone status. In such a state education napavavtanomnae South Koreans have had for generations to invest their money to economically and psychologically prepare their brethren from the north toward full unification.

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