On different continents Euro-Atlantic area is something hitherto unthinkable: "The great English pogrom" gallows set demonstrators protesting in Syntagma Square in Athens in front of the palace of the Greek Parliament (fortunately for those deputies — even while sham) extending from October last year, hundreds of rallies and demonstrations against the government's economic policy in France. Just a few years back it was impossible to imagine themselves and the multi-million dollar nezatihayuschie protests in Spain, with this gem of spring shaking the Iberian Peninsula.
Against this background, that talk about the situation in a new light — this is the second month (September 17), the Americans are trying to occupy Wall Street. And thence, hackers, and just want to wipe these things the focus of the evil forces of the world, if not the face of the earth, at least from the web, having started his generous purpose of defeated the dragon with an attack on the website of the New York Stock Exchange. By distracting the economic realities of the Yankees have joined activists from Canada and Australia, the movement is spreading to Italy, England and other countries.
Ticket for "Titanic"
And only in Ukraine but the grace of silence — we are moving by leaps and bounds "in Europe", embodying the dream of twenty years ago and noticing disturbing events that take place in the coveted Euro-Atlantic Eldorado.
Reading the reports from the euro monetary front, did not fail to appreciate the phenomenal naivete Russian eurooptimists — incipient breakthrough in the preparation of the Association Agreement with the European Union and the development of a free trade area (FTA), it seems almost opened the gates of heaven, for which Ukraine faces a real abundance of prosperity and political .
But the examples of Romania, Greece, Ireland and Portugal, dividing major championship with Ukraine IMF borrowers, as the Baltic states, Hungary, Poland and other European polubankrotov, demonstrated that EU membership is no guarantee of prosperity. Moreover, already forgotten the first Greek rescue, after which the Europeans a little extra time to revive the great fall ill "Celtic Tiger" — Ireland, but the Greeks are again needed help, and money-earthquake tremors ever more clearly heard in other parts of an old Europe — Portugal, Spain, Belgium and even Italy.
In short, the EU economy is obviously ill, and her ailments so visible, that it is now no need to be an economist to see them — rather just watch the news. Ukrainian economy is also seriously ill, but it is naive to think that active European integration attempts posodeystvuyut us out of the crisis. Faster opposite — if the ailing asthma infect besides the flu, it is unlikely that it will help the poor man feel better.
In the cold, clear signs of crisis in the EU should be a prerequisite for widespread hesitation if not the correctness of the choice of Ukraine euro, then certainly in the timeliness of active European integration operations, namely the contract of the FTA with the EU. But soon there turnaround activity Ukrainian authorities in the European sector rolls over, and the intensity of European integration propaganda multiple grows with the deteriorating economic situation in some parts of the European Union. Amazing and dual position of official representatives of the EU: voicing their discontent by some Ukrainian domestic events, they clearly give to understand that the EU wants to conclude an agreement on an FTA with Ukraine in spite of everything.
But even more striking mood in the party in power — exalting the benefits of European integration and the far-fetched at once strongly opposed proposals to join the Customs alliance with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
At first glance, this is a quixotic game: The Party of Regions has always positioned itself as a pro-Russian force, she defeated in the elections because of the mottos of friendship with Russia, economic integration within the CIS, etc. It would seem that the representatives of the PR should be warmer relate to the proposals of the Kremlin. But the realities of Russian politics show recycling, and other expressions of "regionals" outperform make speeches to inflame nationalist: "It is very bad if we do not get the association and free trade area with the EU, it will throw at us many years ago. But even worse, if you give in and go to the RF Customs alliance. Then we have no future as the civilization. After all, our homeland will pull us to the bottom "- dramatically campaigning" for Europe, "Vladimir Zubanov, one of the deputy head of the parliamentary faction of PR. Speech deputy in a similar tone — not a single case, such examples are many.
Comment on such expressions — it nepriznatelnoe, but that is not the subject of this conversation, as well as the fact prepyadstviya European Union. Interestingly another — behind the scenes belts Ukrainian European integration, to reveal that just will analyze the pro-European propaganda, coupled with consideration of the overall situation, which will allow to better understand the direction of the country, and what should be prepared recently.
The Russian "Euro-optimists" are often guilty of the fact that, in contrast overdoing the "Russian" and "European" way of integration of Ukraine, other times frustrated in some hysterical, advertising pros EU is converted to an obvious anti-Russian propaganda.
Nedavneshnim example of similar hysteria in the media is the material in the newspaper "Kurier Uriadovyi" under the heading "Customs alliance — is residence in the ghetto?". Even in the era of President Yushchenko's grave was hard to imagine that the official publication of the central authorities to arrange the material with a similar title on the front page.
Contents of the paper — to match the title: referring to unnamed "experts", the creator categorically states that the Customs Alliance (CU) of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan can can process the backlog of member countries. More than that — he is "forever prescribes its own members in the ghetto under the heading" Third World. "
This flight of ideas, apparently caused by the desire to deny the expression of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at the investment forum in Moscow on economic necessity for Ukraine joining the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. In particular, touched the creator of Article phrase Russian premiere of an imminent severe harm to the economy of our country in the event of the signing of the FTA with the EU due to the inability of the Ukrainian land out of production for the European market, as the degradation and even the loss of some industries, namely shipbuilding and aviation industry.
Trying to refute Vladimir Putin, "Uriadovyi Kurier" refers to a comment Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Boris Kolesnikov, who on the TV channel "Inter" tried in absentia oppose Mr Putin, saying he did not know "of any judgment made such conclusions", and does not see problems for our aerospace and shipbuilding industry in the development of a free trade area with the EU.
Well, let's create a little digression
and analyze the situation in what is now the global economy (and the European Union as it is) from the standpoint of basic economic processes. And at the same time take the trouble to explain to Boris Viktorovich what he is wrong and why in the case of the signing of the agreement on free trade zone with the EU everyone will specifically because it predicts Vladimir Vladimirovich …
Bolivar ran out of gas
Until two years back we wrote about the fact that an important, the main component of the current global economic downturn is another recurrent crisis of overproduction. The main prerequisite is the first recurring crises inherent in the capitalist system, the conflict between private ownership of the means of production and public-minded work, with the result that the aggregate effective demand is constantly lagging behind the volume of commodity production, this difference is accumulated, which leads to economic depression. Simplifying somewhat, we can say that in the course of repeated recessions destruction of the capitalist economy is "excess" capital, ie, spontaneous reduction of supply in line with demand by reducing capacity.
The current situation is exacerbated by the fact that the next cycle of the global recession was superimposed on the structural crisis of the western economy, also coincided in time with the debt crisis. The combination of these reasons make the current economic crisis unprecedented in the historical context: according to research by Russian economists, about one-third of production capacity on a global scale are "unnecessary", and at the beginning of the most successful circumstances subsequent wave of growth for the world economy in a new Kondratieff (Kondratiev cycles — cycles periodicheskie World Economy duration of 40 — 60 years. middle 20s of the last century a prominent Russian economist ND Kondratiev, focusing on the theory developed by his predecessors medium-term economic cycles and recurring crises outlined the mechanism of the large cycles, has been called Kondratieff) will goda.Vobschem not before 2020, perhaps for Boris Kolesnikov Russian economists outlook is notable because the calculations should refer to their European counterparts. How annoying would it sounds, they are even more pessimistic analysts of French bank Societe Generale in a July report (see "The New World Order: when demand exceeds supply» (A new world order: When demand outstrips supply) say that the current crisis — this is the second downward phase 60-year Kondratieff economic cycle, which will be completed by 2030 and the scale of the fall is fully comparable with the majestic depression. According to the views of French researchers, as a result the output of production capacity in Asian countries (which, in fact, has become an important prerequisite structural crisis of the western economy) on a global scale came the excess of supply over demand, which they estimate at 40% as of 2007.
What does this mean in practice in the light of European integration aspirations of Ukraine? Of course, the recent fall in demand in the coming global forces global players to think about saving their own productions. For example, 2009 was the worst in the history of commercial aviation because of the post-war times greater reduction of air traffic (-3.5% in the passenger market and -10.1% in the cargo with an average degree boot flights a 75.6% and 49 , 1%, respectively; airlines loss was $ 9.4 billion (Internatsionalnaya According to the Air Transport Association (IATA)).
Aircraft manufacturers have also experienced a severe recession in 2008 — 2009 years, because not expect that another wave of the crisis and the reduction of orders for aircraft force the Europeans conceive of using their producers.
In the free trade regime with the EU, Ukrainian market will be regarded by Europeans as their own, internal, and the means by aircraft manufacturers programm EU will necessarily include measures to stimulate Ukrainian airlines to buy European appliances (including second-hand). So it is not only the European market remains inaccessible for ASTC. Antonov, and will be lost inside — Ukrainian market. Moreover, in certain sectors, "Antonov" is a possible contender for the concern Airbus, aircraft manufacturers because of our bankruptcy, it may be one of the vneglasnyh Fri programs from the European crisis. A place that the Russian producer, was released in 2010 only 2 aircraft will survive against all odds — without the protection of the domestic market, government support and under the pressure of the EU — the very little naive.
And it's not a nuisance in Europe, just a crisis of overproduction is dictating its terms — shortage of demand in the global economy says that the least efficient production capacity should be liquidation. Nothing personal, gentlemen, do not sulk, just two Bolivar really do not carry.
A nice example of the defeat of the "excess" production in the EU is the Polish shipbuilding. For some reason Boris Kolesnikov believes that the Ukrainian shipbuilding factory will develop and co-operate "with the Dutch and Polish partners." And then, it seems, Boris V. summed collecting information assistants — just the experience of Poland clearly shows the sad prospects that await Ukrainian shipbuilders on the thorny path of European integration.
During the Soviet era shipyards of Gdansk, Gdynia and Szczecin were strong enterprises, only Gdansk shipyard produced about 30 ships a year. After the collapse of the Soviet Union the Polish branch of government subsidized, but since Poland's accession to the European Union over the shipyards began to thicken the clouds. Thunder in the midst of the global financial crisis: the European Commission initiated an investigation regarding the provision of Poland, the shipbuilding companies and recognized some episodes of this aid contrary to the principle of free competition. "Gossips" claimed for the European Commission were lobbyists German and Scandinavian shipyards, but it seems that the Polish government did not hesitate in the sincerity of intentions European officials regarding the protection of the holy rules of fair and free competition in the EU.
The bottom line is we have the loss of Polish shipbuilding industry — according to the read out the verdict in 2009, the European Commission, the Gdansk Shipyard has received a grant from the terms of the restructuring, in which was required to significantly reduce its shipbuilding capacity. To "restore the competitive criterion in the market" shipbuilders had to close two docks of 3, and the remaining capacity of the dock for launching were significantly limited by the maximum gross register tonnage (gross registered tonnage — an indicator of the size of the ship as a whole, expressed in register tons ). Almost the establishment is unprofitable, and the closure of the last of the Polish shipyards — it recently.
What's all the same for the Gdynia and Szczecin shipyards, they were one hundred percent, "restructured", that is destroyed — their property is sold, and workers laid off. If the death of an entire industry under pressure from the EU bureaucrats eurooptimists-native-called "development", as it is not to remember Goebbels: "we seek not the truth, and effect." Economic, certainly. At our expense.
Business without sentimentality
The theory of repeated crises of overproduction easily explains another paradox: why Europeans have expressed some comments on the internal policy of Ukraine and even threaten sanctions, but the process of concluding an FTA is not affected. For example, immediately after the announcement of the sentence Yulia Tymoshenko EU high representative for foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said in the European Parliament that negotiations with Ukraine on an association agreement and a free trade zone will continue, regardless of the verdict to the former prime minister. In fact, as i
t happened — after a few days it was officially announced after negotiations between Ukraine and the EU on a free trade zone, also announced the signing of the Association Agreement by the end of this year.
The point here is not outstanding talents diplomatically Ukrainian negotiators, but the fact that the current crisis of overproduction dictates the need for Europeans to expand the market of its own products — when the supply starts to exceed the effective demand, expansion into other markets is a matter of survival for their economies. And there can be no sentimentality — European politicians may foolishly like Yulia Tymoshenko, but more important than the interests of the manufacturers, and they will seek to conclude an agreement on an FTA with Ukraine until recently.
Sentiment European negotiators do not experience and the economic interests of our country: Europe aggressively defended his position, and according to the information that appeared at the end of the negotiations, we got another WTO agreement: a minimum of protection of the domestic market and the subtle barriers by the EU in certain sectors of our eksporta.Vobschem, nothing else from this agreement and do not have to wait, because, from an economic point of view, for Ukraine in general agreement on an FTA with the EU is not profitable either in the short or in the long term. Practically speaking, there is no need to go into the details — in the course of discussions about the desired nedavneshney the integration of Ukrainian scientists and professionals have been sounded harsh arguments in favor of joining the customs alliance and the destructive for the economy of our country to sign an agreement on free trade area with the EU.
Reasons of the including in the pages of our magazine, show conclusively that in the short term after the launch of the FTA with the EU harsh Russian economy will decline.
Namely, according to a joint study of the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of NASU, only from the reduction of exports to Russia in the end of the contract of the FTA with the EU Ukraine will lose $ 1.4-1.9 billion. (At the lowest estimates).
Calculations Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Valery Muntiyan also does not give a reason for evrooptimizma: according to his vykladam in the free trade regime with the EU, our country face a reduction in GDP of 0.42%, and the total output — 1.13%; increasing negative balance of foreign trade of $ 2.9 billion.; increasing unemployment in the economy by 32.4 thousand people.
You can only add that in fact negative consequences for the economy of Ukraine in the case of establishing a free trade regime with the EU is likely to significantly eclipse predictions professionals. Circumstances that few, most of which — the final terms of the agreement, even worse, as mentioned at the beginning. For example, instead of the previously announced 10-year retention period of imported duties on cars at the current level (with a possible extension to protect the market for another 5 years), new criteria for the contract of the FTA foreseen a gradual reduction of import duties starting from the first year of the agreement acts . Although the question of limited scope — about 45 thousand units. a year, this amount is fully enough in order to provoke a critical shortage of foreign trade surplus of the country in the first half of each year (since importers will try to introduce the most avtomomashin in the first months of the year, so that customs clearance at a reduced rate).
Although the question of limited scope — about 48 thousand units per year, this amount is fully enough in order to provoke a critical shortage of foreign trade surplus of our country. How annoying would it sounds, now greatly increased possibility of default prediction of Ukraine due to the lack of a sharp rise in foreign trade after the entry into force of the FTA.
Typically, proponents of European integration understandable profitability calculations for Ukraine to free trade with the EU is not provided. And the reason for this yavna: unbiased analysis on at least some method gives a greater or lesser level of losses for our country in this case — by lowering GDP and lethargic depression right up to a total disaster Ukrainian economy. Apparently, the lack of reason in favor of harsh euro rate Russian eurooptimists and invent sensible arguments naivety which surpasses even the ladies' novels, a sort of "evronaiv" — the current economic, political and social problems of the West are simply ignored, and the basic idea is that even itself to itself in our way EC is good and the abolition of all kinds of problems bail native homeland (in the form of widespread corruption, gaining momentum Ukrainian Nazi or a lack of adequate investment in infrastructure).
In truth, even a couple of years ago now, the creator of lines was sure that as you go deeper into the abyss of the EU crisis, the Ukrainians will be more sober look at European integration and which is popular in Ukraine "evronaiv" uniform will lose their own fans, remaining only in a as exotic oddities, along with the company pending the occurrence of the planet Nibiru or adherents of "Flat Earth Society" ("Flat Earth Society» (Flat Earth Society) — an organization founded in Britain in the XIX century, now has about 200 members and promotes the world, according to which our planetka has the shape of a flat disk).
But that did not happen, why, for the sake of completeness still need to give reasons eurooptimists unpretentious. The benefit that there is no need to go far — works in the style of "evronaiv" from time to time there are also in the pages of our magazine, the two relevant material: "Towards EuRussia« and "you" checkered "or to go? '. Their creators Maxim Mikhaylenko and Anton Podolak lead fairly identical arguments.
According to the canons of the genre, the creators simply ignore the trivial economic prepyadstviya in the EU (and especially its eastern members) — that manipulating the virtual human development indices, the flock, calling the dark — snow white when they say about some of the "successes in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia," which "quite impressive." Indeed, the elimination of entire sectors of industry in the post-socialist countries, under pressure from the EU is the real success of European bureaucracy, but the word "success" in this case is to be quoted at least out of compassion for the displaced workers held companies.
From this series, and the argument about the lack of Tipo in the "new European" countries noticeable political forces opposed to European integration — they say all European problem invented by skeptics, and the Europeans a dream spirit about them is not unheard of. Well, we can only recommend to read carefully the staff of "2000", for example materials Alexei Aref'eva of Prague. If the Czech Republic on an official level as long as they say and not to withdraw from the EU, the refusal of entry into the euro zone where discussions are very intense, "51% of Czechs now would vote against joining the EU, while 75% oppose adoption of the euro." And the fact that the issue of withdrawal from the EU has been debated in the British Parliament, I think, perfectly clear to readers of "2000".
And the main reason creators in favor of European integration lies in the fact that only a protectorate of Brussels Ukrainians will be able to build some "proper democracy": "… European integration — this is a trivial way to build a" Europe "in Ukraine. It will, and has become a major stimulus … implement in their own country European standards "(A. Podolak). What to say here? To dream that the EU can civilize the local policy, you can, but now the Europeans in the foreground financial difficulties, and for th
em is more important than money, but not great manners in the political life of a province there. Moreover, we should not idealize the bureaucrats of the EU — even in times of economic growth, they turned a blind eye to the blatant overt support of the Nazis in Estonia either on the shameful for a "civilized Europe" presence in Latvia and Estonia, so-called. "Non-citizens" (those who do not have many civilian and political rights).
Say more — as it is about big money, the most enlightened and democratic Europeans are ready to slide into the natural barbarity, only to hit the jackpot. And despite some politicians act of "old Europe", you catch yourself thinking that they will support even a cannibal, but it would only be economically profitable. How annoying would it sounds, this is not journalistic overreach — Abdel Hakim Belhadj, head of the Tripoli Military Council, is one of the prominent figures of the Libyan rebels, and controls the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group — an autonomous organization that is closely associated with al-Qaeda. It's no secret the fact that bearded Islamists make up a significant part of the Libyan rebels, and on the web as you can find a lot of chilling videos on how to "work" of these "defenders of freedom." After a few minutes of contemplation beheaded "enemies of democracy" the idea that some European countries to its role in the NATO operation was supported by almost cannibalistic in Libya, ceases to seem exaggerated. As for the economic benefits, the more time we talk about Libya's oil fields need not …
Gesheft on the bones of the country?
As we see, the problem of Ukraine is that among the fans of "evronaiva" belongs to a lot of big Ukrainian officials, and the process of European integration announced an important value of foreign policy, despite the fact that some of its elements are already on their for themselves may be a prerequisite of economic disaster.
There is no special mystery — in 2005 to power in Ukraine almost came to business. More or less large, commercial, industrial or cash, under different political slogans and flags — all this is not the essence of principle. The key is that Mammon does not think municipal categories, as a measure of self-interest — the scale of the business empire of the holding or enterprise. The fact that a disaster from the standpoint of the whole power, may be a good "Gesheft" — from the perspective of a business.
Creating a free trade zone with the EU — a good example: in this case, Ukraine expects a sharp increase in foreign shortage, and is, if not a full-blown default, the significant devaluation of the hryvnia. But for the owners of steel companies is just an excuse to make, because in a free trade regime with the EU rate for exported to EU countries metal is reduced by 5% compared with the rates of the WTO, in addition, after the devaluation of the hryvnia cash cost of production naturally decreases. On the other achievements of the Russian lobbyists (confectioners, chemists, and others), we learn how to be aware of all the details of the agreement on the FTA.
In any case, the possibility of creating a free trade zone with the EU is very high — it's too massive forces are interested in this: the North Atlantic political lobby, European industrialists, Ukrainian oligarchs. But immediately it means economic the collapse of Ukraine as a whole, the forthcoming impoverishment of the people, and the associated high-spirited political decline of the ruling party.
According to the views of many analysts, an important prerequisite for the defeat of Yulia Tymoshenko in 2010, the rate for the nationalists, respectively propaganda and contempt for the voters of the south-east of Ukraine. The problem is today's imperative the team — in the very highest impact on business decisions that are often made to the detriment of the country. Get rid of the oligarchs and businessmen in power, push the business of municipal issues — is a guarantee of the political future of the Party of Regions and Viktor Yanukovych personally. Will they be able to cope with this challenge — we will know soon. Time is not drastic enough — a day signing of the FTA with the EU collective southeast must already begin to identify with the new spokesmen for their own political interests.