The first question to ask a person, having read the headline: "Who should do" not "what" to do, and the "who" do?
"Who" — it's you and me.
But since I really appreciate the opportunity of our association, and the ability for coordinated action at least in part of this web site, the article is not of a disposition program, and should be seen only as food for thought. Because bezotstupno please do not write me to the ideologues of the revolution / counter-revolution.
Why are faced with the need to do something?
Do not need to because once they have done something wrong. You can have different attitudes toward privatization. But giving a moral judgment, we must not forget that it took place under the law. It is not good, but the law. Well, the case is passed. Many owners of privatized enterprises were changed and they have been "good faith" purchasers, the sins of the privatization of not guilty. In other words, the elite has formed, and we have what we have.
And we have followed:
— elite in Russia is a business, but does not connect with her future. Kids and grandchildren abroad, houses, yachts and soccer teams overseas accounts there.
— Many offices are registered in offshore zones, in other words not Russian.
— export of capital means that our homeland — the only source of income, profits as recipients want to dispose of in other places.
That is, if only briefly, simply to designate the circle claims. A claim may be reduced to one — rather short and clear: Interests much of our elite / oligarchy has little in common with the interests of the Russian Federation as an independent country, and not an accidental coincidence in time spread further than the period of depreciation of equipment on in their factories — steamers . As can be seen, they are not to blame that we did, but in what they are doing at the moment and want to do in the future.
The logical question, but need a population of, in other words we were with you, this alien elite and what should be done?
In the first approximation probable three options:
1. Do nothing (opportunity Advent is assessed at 50%).
2. A revolution, using past experience (38% chance).
3. Wait until the oligarchs will wake up the national consciousness (12% chance).
But it is not so simple.
If nothing is done, this does not mean that nothing will happen, and the situation segodnyaschy freeze for ever and ever.
Men do nothing.
Being passive situation of the people will go for two scenarios:
1. Pessimistic. Oligarchy waiting exhaustion vsedostupnosti fields. After that, instead of investment turns business and move out of the limit. Together with neftebaronami depart at once becoming useless bankers, trubozavodchiki, and others who directly or indirectly supplied by the pipe. After 2 decades of the first wave of oligarchs will depart from business. Not the fact that their business will continue to kids and grandkids definitely not. As can be seen, for natural reasons (barring a global catastrophe) apocalypse separately in one country will begin in the interval 2030-2040.
2. Conventionally, life-affirming. Segodnyaschy power forces the dangers share. Not all capital flow away, often invest in its economy. Compared with the 90s a lot of progress, compared with the possible abilities — a modest existence. Not so much Putin urges sacrifice, but is enough to conjure up for the hatred. Our home can really get into the top five states for GDP, but only because the real GDP is generated not at the municipal level and in multinational companies.
The possibility of both scenarios within a single branch probability estimate of 50 to 50.
The revolutionary scenario
After the rally on Bolotnaya possibility of revolution decreased. Approximately 50% to 38%. It happened not because people believed in and accepted United Russia. Just have seen all that the leaders of the revolution have not. And those who want to lead the people's protest, yield the same oligarchs. And inferior in everything, in mind, in organizational capabilities. One story with signature sheets Yavlinsky's what it takes. A person who is not able to organize the signature collection willed to run the state? (He laughed).
In other words, a revolution like this from scratch is not going to happen. But if you start a big war (Iran and Syria at first, and later on the rise), will be like in 1917. Only three years without swinging. This may be a spontaneous revolt, and perhaps the Orange Revolution. But the possibility of spontaneous rebellion twice due to lack of grant-in the middle of pochetaemyh people able to become leaders.
But then, as the borders are closed, not the fact that the oligarchs will escape. And decorate a hunting lights do not. As can be seen, for the oligarchy impartial no matter what war with direct or indirect role of the Russian Federation is not safe and it just has to do something peaceful, as in the case of Libya.
By the way, that Prokhorov says about Syria? What I beheld, sounds a bit detached. In the sense that Syria is fascinating only to those who have business interests there. Here it is, Prokhorov has not and does not think of why the Russian Federation in general need to get into this business?
This is a very speculative scenario. It is based on the assumption that the oligarchs usvoyut, in the west they are not needed. Neither they nor their kids do not become the Western elite and always will be on the second — third roles. And they will respect only when the country will be respected, their breed. Consider this possibility only makes sense because there will be a similar group of associates, their will not only funds, and real organizational experience, more fundamentally.
Obviously, we are talking about the oligarchs who do not have a second citizenship of the country, whose title is forbidden to utter. The list of potential participants can not lead.
But in this case, is really speculative, directing organizational talents, capital and energy on the creation, progress might be made, fully comparable to Stalin's industrialization.
In other words, in the 2nd approximation of probability tree acquires subsequent form:
What are states?
The possibility of extending the current situation of only 25%. 75% of possible configurations. In other words, those who count on the fact that the area is free hunting Our homeland will exist for as long as it took the oligarchs who are very wrong. Equally wrong are those who wonders about the continuation of regular life.
Configuration will occur with a probability of 75%. In this framework:
1. Configuration suitable for the oligarchy (color revolution) — 17%.
2. Unpleasant (nationally oriented elite) — 17%
3. Adverse (activity Putin) — 33%
4. Tragic (popular revolution) — 33%
Obviously, all the calculations are given with a little bit of error, which I think is a plus or minus 17% from the baseline value. In addition, the number of floating, regardless of those or other events. Because of decimal places to ask you not to find fault.
In this scenario, the activities of the oligarchs should focus on one, maxi
mum two scenarios with the full attenuation 3, and in particular the 4th.
We are there with you of these, and the last to choose. At the theoretical level.
In fact we have no choice — all the people to support Putin or to arrange a mutiny. The possibility of either of the options are not so great as to be imminent. In addition, life goes on and changes the balance of probabilities.
In the 3rd approximation, given the political dynamics and to detect trends in the picture may further change.
The latter-day leaders of the masses in response to these masses have caused persistent vomiting. Evidence of this decline in the number of protesters. They do not want to build up in the stands, "These."
Because one reality is reduced, and its potential to migrate into reality 2.2. Even if there will be a surge after May 4, at not get away fast.
Nationally aimed oligarchs are not yet able to make the party (Prokhorov, I do not mean in any case) and their potential to migrate in the direction of fact 2.2.
2.1 The reality remains without changes.
Conditionally imagine that migrate 50% of the causes. (Reasons — for those circumstances or other actions, not people. Please do not compare the number left on rallies "for" and "against." Here we are on the other.).
Why exactly 50? In fact the present value fluctuates around this number. But if simplistically, the logic is this: All the people are divided into highly targeted, for whom the act is quite small push and smallish target, requiring the leader. When it became clear that the leaders not ("offended" parties accepted the results of the elections), lost to the factors that led to the street people from the second group.
In this case, the possibility of revolution is reduced to 19%, and the impact of the oligarchs who want greatness of, but without Putin to 6%.
The possibility of the emergence of Putin's actually respectively increased to 50%. A lot, but success is not guaranteed. It may happen, but maybe not. A provision for capacity building the party in power is no longer visible.
Success can only be guaranteed if the opportunity to halve the 2.1 configuration tool such situations that people will continue to live on quite unrealistic. What could it be? Mega-projects such as Sochi and Skolkovo? Many of us whether this applies in person? The development of the army, military industrial complex, Astronautics? Finely. The increase in the standard of living? A gentle impact will not, and there is no place to take a jump.
Remains, pardon the cynicism — the universal cataclysm. And the more powerful the cataclysm of the 2008 crisis. That crisis saw far not all.
What is it? At the risk of upset over the tub of feces, all I will say — the war.
This is not to say that our home should poruha on anyone. Pretty not stand aside when the "Empire of Good" will vbomblivat Syria and Iran into the stone age. Even by not need anyone to bombard. Pretty assist tool and volunteers (like spices in Vietnam), and political life in the country will change beyond recognition.
There is a true version of the collapse of the U.S. currency, but then still a war. I believe that the war will start earlier, as an attempt to prevent the collapse of the money.
In any case, the probability of future scenarios can make the following values:
— Putin's oligarchy forced mobilization for the needs of the country — 69%;
— Saving the situation in its current form — 12%;
— The organization grantososami mutiny by the Libyan scenario — 0%. They will crush as a fifth column;
— But the protest vote will not get anywhere because the possibility of spontaneous rebellion will rise to 19%. And in some regions able to go off-scale for 50%.
— Nationally-based oligarchs organize revival of the country without Putin — 0%. These people will work on defense, temporarily putting aside political ambitions.
And these criteria conceived Putin reforms have a chance to be crowned with success. In other words, the United States, playing with his muscles in the Persian Gulf, impartial work on the "Putin's Plan."
Rezun, where are you? Wake up! Stalin to strengthen his personal power unleashed the Second World War, and Putin is preparing to unleash a third. Get up, you lazy man! To work!
Obviously, this disposition to the case of Iran's victory or a draw. In case of accidental factor of Putin drops to 0. Consequence — the rebellion with a probability of more than 50%. And if freedom will Kvachkov ….
That's only a question of what to do with the oligarchs will go into action. This means that bring them scores on the physical layer can be exclusively in the case frisky devilish destruction of, at which planes to London will not fly.
But whether you want to take revenge itself cost? Not sure.
Am getting a concise result.
1. Conservation of non-participation in the current situation in the Middle East conflict is fraught with unstable political equilibrium with an implicit bias towards Putin's band, but with the imminent collapse in the future.
2. Direct or indirect role in the war in the Middle East dramatically increases Putin's position. Iranian victory or a draw secured these positions.
3. Missing assistance to Iran and its defeat lead to political chaos and rebellion (not revolution) with decimation oligarchy and unpredictable consequences for you and me.
In a very exciting position are oligarchs. In their interest to avoid being drawn into a war of the Russian Federation (item 1). But if our homeland will be involved, the victory in the war for them a matter of life and death (item 3).
Moreover, in case of victory (p. 2), although at the physical level, they will survive is very high possibility that they exported capital will burn in the fire of hyperinflation, and the overseas property devalued. Such a blow to the pockets will be much more painful than a punch in the face.
It turns out the one who lusts for revenge on the elite's not bad that they have planned for us, instead of acting himself must fervently covet victory to Syria and Iran. But do not blame me of being bloodthirsty. U.S. refusal to war — also a victory.
I find this ridiculous situation. Which it is our elites do not know.
As already said first article, this is not a call to action. This is an attempt to describe the situation in the dynamics of the theory of probability methods.
A draw your own conclusions.
Threat. While writing the article was information the disclosure of plotting the assassination of Putin. Obviously, if there is no such policy as a fundamental factor Putin, all classifications are changed drastically. But it goes beyond the true article.
ZZY. As the creator with reverence assigned to the critics that offer their own line of reality, and to those who will offer more sophisticated mathematical tools. With the latest ready for personal correspondence.