What will happen with North Korea?

What will happen with North Korea?He died a favorite of North Korea's Kim Jong-il. Started the big deal is that, of course, is not right, those who believe that the Democratic People's Republic — it is a poor and forgotten by God hole on the edge of the world civilization. They obviously wrong.

South Korean authorities have led their forces into a state of over-availability, enhanced monitoring of the situation on the border between the two Koreas-name, held a critical meeting of the government. Immediately South Korean stock exchange collapsed, fell and the leading index of Shanghai Stock Exchange, the Hong Kong Hang Seng. Fell as stock characteristics Land of the Rising Sun, Singapore, Russia. He grew up in the value of a buck (it always benefits from crisis situations), dropped the euro, the yen, the ruble. Seoul arranged with Tokyo and Washington on the cramped cooperation and joint monitoring of the situation in North Korea.

Neighborhood DPRK alarmed. The head of the Japanese government Yoshihiko Noda urged ministers to his own office to be ready for what ever unpredictable situations that may arise in connection with the news of the death of a favorite North Korea Kim Jong Irina. The Prime Minister noted that "now can happen anywhere." Because Japan should be prepared for this one hundred percent ready. The country has created an anti-crisis headquarters, which will monitor and analyze what is happening in North Korea and the country to develop a plan of action in case of aggravation of the situation in the region. In addition, the Japanese government expressed its condolences and expressed the hope that this situation will not lead to negative consequences for peace and stability on the Korean peninsula.

The situation in North Korea is also closely watching the coming other neighbors — South Korea, our homeland, China, the United States. The official dealer of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ma Zhaoxu said China "shocked" by the news and expressed "deep condolences". China Central Television (CCTV) said that the Chinese authorities are confident in the successful future of North Korea under the Kim Jong-un (Kim Jong-un.) People of North Korea under the Workers' Party of Korea and Kim Jong Un will continue to "move towards building a strong socialist state" and save the unchanging peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. The report also noted that bilateral cooperation between China and North Korea in the interests of both peoples. And "China will continue to stand on the side of North Korea."

The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov said that "the loss, which realized the North Korean people," do not affect the development of friendly relations between Russia and the DPRK. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Kim Jong Un (the younger son of the deceased leader declared "great successor") of sympathy on the death of his father. The head of the Communist Party Gennady Zyuganov expressed compassion "fraternal Korean people" and wished the Korean people "wisdom and endurance."

British Minister of Foreign Secretary William Hague said that the death of Kim Jong-Irene could be a "turning point" for the development of North Korea. He also said that the new government KNDP recognize that engagement with the international community will mean "more bright prospects for improving the lives of ordinary citizens" of the country.

Press Secretary to the President of the United States Jay Carney said Washington looks over the situation and supports close contact with Seoul and Tokyo. The Yankees made for maintaining stability on the Korean peninsula. U.S. President Barack Obama in communicating the President of South Korea Lee Myung-bak gave a promise to make every effort to maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula and the security of "a close ally of the Republic of Korea." National security agencies the U.S. and South Korea have been instructed to make a tight fit coordination.

What is threatening the world?

Analysts at the South Korean National Intelligence Agency does not exclude that the death 69-year-old Kim Jong Irina can lead to power struggles. Thus, the battle for the top job can start managing the administrative department of the WPK, a member of the Municipal Committee of Defense and son Kim Jong Irina — Jang Song Taek. According to the views of the South Korean analysts, who died leader just has not had time to transfer his own youngest scion of all power. In addition, the policy of the young favorite of the DPRK may affect the coming war with the ambience of the deceased leader. Among them are not only the above-mentioned Jang Song Taek, and his wife, the sister of Kim Jong Irina — Kim Kyong Hui. There is a perception that they are de facto ruled by the state, when Kim Jong Il in 2008, experienced a heart attack (or heart attack).

According to the views of Dr. Institute of North Korean research in Seoul, Yang Moo Jin, a military coup in North Korea is unlikely, most likely, "the party control of the government and the army North Korea will be a time to work together, "because Kim Jong-un is still young. Need to see that the clear leader of the new age DPRK unknown, he was born into the lumen of the time between 1982 and 1984.

Some Western experts have expressed the hope that the new leader will conduct a "new course" aimed at the elimination of the totalitarian regime. It is clear that they have expressed a desire to the United States, the West in general, as the Land of the Rising Sun and South Korea. The enemies of North Korea does not have the ability to conduct a military operation in the Iraqi scenario (taking into account the power of the army of the DPRK and the presence of several nuclear weapons, such a scenario could cause a catastrophe on the peninsula, may be affected by the strategic interests of Russia and China), and there is no chance for a "color revolution" . Special forces of North Korea's propaganda machine and work very well. More profitable scenario — a "rotten leader", like Gorbachev, who will hand over the country without a fight.

Konstantin Asmolov, the Center for Korean Research Institute Work Far Eastern Studies, in an interview, "Russian news service," said the tensions in the region can be strengthened, but the possibility of war on the peninsula is unlikely. Relations between North Korea and Russia will be maintained at the same level, because the Russian Federation is in the region "ravnoorientirovannuyu policy" and is doing everything to keep the peace on the Korean peninsula and stability.

Alexander Zhebin, manager of the Center of Korean research Institute of Far Eastern Studies, believes that the situation is quite sudden for Pyongyang: Kim Jong-il showed the highest performance in the past year has made four zabugornyh visit (three trips to China, one in Russia) country preparing for a number of prazdnichkom — in February 2012, the 70th anniversary of the leader, in April, the 100th anniversary of the founder countries of the North Korean President Kim Il Sung. But, apparently, "the situation will not seriously destabilized." My father, Kim Jong-un had time to update the composition of the highest party and government officials of North Korea, in September 2010 a conference of the
ruling WPK, which elected a new Political Bureau, the Secretariat of the Central Committee and the Military Committee. Then there was a hundred percent staffed Municipal Committee of Defense. All the people who came to these bodies are designed to be competitive, and support new favorite. Almost all at the ripe old age — the most in 70 years, many for 80. They can not claim to be the favorite of the country surrounded by enemies. But may assist in maintaining stability, play the role of a mentor to Kim Jong-un is not committed follies. Because, especially at first, the management of North Korea will become more collective.

The reforms, if held, are unlikely to be constructive. The North Korean military and political elite of the old and the limited experience and takes into account the number of states of the socialist system that went into the design and frisky reform. Under these reforms are usually former management was removed from power, it is behind bars or have been destroyed. At the same time, there is recognition that the country needed economic and social reforms. Steps in this direction were made by Kim Jong Irina will be made to continue. Acts Kaesong industrial complex near the demarcation strip between North and South Korea, are working to create a joint economic zone on the border with China, is the development of joint projects with Russia. It is necessary to take into account the fact that the North Korean elite as a whole is well aware that if she remain united, North Korea, and it is quite a strong position will be saved. And if there is a split in the "conservatives" and "reformers" that threatens death to all. In addition, before the time the security of North Korea demonstrated the highest level of capacity, all attempts to destabilize the situation had been nipped in the embryo.

Danger threatens North Korea in this case will worsen food security of the country. This can cause social and political crisis. But China and Our homeland is not interested, that in North Korea there have been great excitement, the turmoil, these majestic power of the evolutionary path of development in North Korea, the consistent development of the country. China has always provided significant political, economic and food aid to Pyongyang and at the moment does not remain on the sidelines as our homeland. Also in Russia in 2012 will be the APEC summit in Vladivostok, Moscow because heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula to anything.

Although there is one trait that can ultimately lead to death DPRK. It is the personality of the new leader. Of those scraps of disk imaging, which are known to the media, it is clear that he received his secondary education at an international school in Berne (Switzerland), in the "citadel of capitalism." He was not alien to Western values, such as the South American football (Kim Jong-un is known as a fan of the American NBA), pop culture. In addition, as a "young leader" visible and signs of physical degeneration. So Makarov, as the leader North Korea You can distinguish sad familiar to citizens of Russia features such as Gorbachev's policy.

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