A successful revolution in Tunisia, which christened — "Jasmine", stirred up the whole Arab world and the Middle East region. Egypt went up in flames, almost revolutionaries have won, President Hosni Mubarak agrees to resign from his post, but at the end of the term in the fall. This revolution dubbed the "Twitter", because of the large role of social networks related people.
The unrest has enveloped a significant number of states — Algeria, Yemen, Jordan, Syria. Many of authoritarian rulers, realizing that there was a smell of fried in a hurry to carry out reforms began.
The revolutionary developments in the Middle East, became for many, a large surprise. For example, in Egypt, there was no organized opposition, all under the tight control of the security services and the army. No external enemies, a great friend of the United States, helping to modernize the army, with Israel benevolent neutrality.
Lord of Jordan Abdullah II, was able to make a move ahead of the curve, as the demonstrations began, he sent in his resignation and the government has given a promise. What's new cabinet will introduce reforms.
Really need to know that the king himself is unlikely to threaten danger, his family is descended from the Prophet Muhammad and even the most structurally-minded revolutionaries it will not dare to touch. Although "guarding own God saves, and do not touch other people's."
Teran of Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who ruled the state for more than 30 years, has promised not to go to the polls in 2013 and aimed to hold a number of social reforms. But taking into account that Yemen is one of the propane countries on the planet, there was even drinking water is not enough, you can expect a very social explosion.
President Bashar Assad has also promised reforms allocated 250 million dollars for social grants, the most disadvantaged.
Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has promised to reform, permitted to conduct demonstrations (illegal since 1992), abolished the state of emergency imposed in 1992, allowed politicians access to television and radio. He promised to put a counter-terrorist operations under the control of the public — many public figures blamed for the massacre of rural inhabitants of the Algerian security service (muhabharat) to substitute for the people's anger, Islamist groups. Islamists, impartially not kill the villagers for what they support them.
In Algeria, until now there are centers of civilian sites Won waged by supporters of the Islamic way of development of the country and a secular government. Civil conflict has already claimed more than 200 thousand local residents.
Buterflika, three times won the local elections — 1999, 2004 and 2009, with a 90%, almost the "father of the people", with one "but" — the constructive opposition boycotted them, considering a farce, and in 1999, he was the only candidate.
Radicals promise that if they win the country will return to the "true Islam", and proceeds from the sale of oil, gas, phosphate rock, will be turned to the benefit of the people.
In the middle of January 2011 in Sudan held a referendum about the separation of South Sudan from the North. Over 99% of the inhabitants of southern Sudan voted "for" department. In Sudan, there was 20-year-old civilian clothes War (1985-2005). Between the Christian south and Muslim north. Already by 2001, killing more than 2 million people, more than 4 million refugees. Now we need to agree on the interface, and who will depart the Abyei region, where over a quarter of Sudan's oil. Because of the unrest in Egypt and Tunisia, plainclothes war could break out with the latest in strength.
General prepyadstviya Arab World
— In the main, local elites are far from the people, revenues are redistributed in favor of the ruling class and clan, that support the political summit.
— The lack of development, go to the highest technologies. Arab elites gain measured income from the sale of energy and other natural resources, and happy about it. Exploiting nature and ruins of past civilizations — tourism. Arab elite does not develop industry, which would have made the population of jobs, preferring to buy the right abroad — machines, tools, machines …
— The highest birth rate, unemployment, poverty, most of the population.
— The problem of water shortage, growth of the desert (Sahara), in Yemen will soon be reality war over water. Because in some states, and the problem is food, Egypt buys 40% of wheat consumed.
— The problem of the radicalization of Islam, many believe that the elite threw precepts of the Prophet Muhammad (apparently they are right, if you look at what luxury living Arab sheiks, as for example: the rich entire harems, and ordinary people can accumulate a lifetime to purchase a wedding and marriage and do not accumulate). Cooperation politicians Arab world with the U.S., Israel, the cause of Islam adherents feel that they are traitors, enemies of their own people.
What to do?
Arab public to understand the truth of the ordinary, neither liberalization nor the Islamization of their country does not help out and solve the problems.
Liberal reforms will provide more abilities, but do not create jobs, more water will not, manna from heaven will not fall down. Liberal policy led to a "restructuring" of the U.S. (of which not so long ago declared Obama) to the crisis the EU Member States, destroyed the economies of the former Soviet Union. If the power in Egypt and other countries come liberals, these countries will come to another great inconstancy, the radical Islamist positions only get stronger.
The particular Islam also fails to solve the problems, it levels the situation is temporary — hanged politicians, Westerners disperse demonstrators with machine-gun bursts. But it will cause irritation of the West, he might even be going to the operation to seize the Suez Canal and the major oil fields. Well, the war with Israel can go in the hot phase, and if Israel sees that the preponderance of forces in its favor, it can go on and on nuclear bombing.
The example of Afghanistan and Pakistan should stand in front of the Arabs.
Their only salvation — an association of most of the Arab states in the united state, or federation with a high degree of autonomy of the former states. In a typical Arab caliphate, but not brutal foreign policy, it has ruined it against the Arab world then merge all the neighbors — Israel, Turkey, Iran, the European alliance, they will support States.
Then the Arabs are natural resources that are required in the international market, money-rich Arabian countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Oman), it will be possible to dissolve all the armies of creating a common — saving a lot of money. Start up funds for the establishment of their own industry, the type of industrialization in the USSR 30s. This will solve the problem of unemployment and poverty.
For this it is necessary to make sense of pan-Arab party with the theme of unity of the Arabs, the overconsumption of an old elite to finish their resources are deleted. Make a single currency — the "gold dinar" get away from Baksova dependence and the euro.
But the most important thing to keep in mind — Outdoor anger destroy good initiative, but defense policies. Earth is enough — from the Atlantic (Mauritania, Western Sahara, Morocco), the whole of North Africa to Iran and Turkey. In the hands of the new entity will be output to the two oceans — the Atlantic and
Indian, the two principal seas — the Mediterranean and the reddish, the strategic Suez Canal, the Persian Gulf.
In foreign policy conduct a balanced, common course, strategic partners: 1) Europe — Mediterranean basin, and 2) Our homeland — help in the development of industry, energy, new armed forces joint space exploration, and 3) India and 4) China.
Capitals can be immediately two of the town — Damascus and Cairo.